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I'd say I nailed this decision. Congrats to all those who sold out. Bad luck for any holders.
Wow... Now a 12% drop. Over reaction?
An RNS has come out saying that Mondi has decided to pull out of the purchase.
IP share price now $35.33.
So $35.33 x 0.1285 and divide by exchange rate of 1.24 suggests to me that the bid is (at this moment in time) worth £3.66 per SMDS share.
Yes the market maybe thinks (or hopes) Mondi will come back.
Or maybe that the IP share price will increase (due to the "synergies" of the combined company?).
Or maybe not enough people have bothered to read / understand the terms of the offer and think it is for £4.15.
It's quite an interesting situation - I have made my risk/reward decision, good luck to you all in making yours.
Not nonsense at all - market is where it is today because there might still be a counter offer from Mondi. If Mondi drop out you will see the sp tracking the IP sp which at the moment means the sp & the offer would be around the £3.71 mark . Do you not understand the RNS ?
What nonsense. Market also indicated otherwise.
Yes grumpy
I had worked that out as well - also sold this morning when I realised. Personally I can’t see Mondi coming back in -
Chaps,
The headline "offer is for 415p per SMDS share" is bol***ks.
It is an all share offer, which will go up and down - presently, based on IP closing yesterday of (less than) $36, it values our shares at 371.8p each according to my calculations.
I have consequently sold £50k SMDS this morning.
Of course if Mondi come back I will have egg on my face.
Good luck to you all whatever you decide to do.
I think a good deal all round - the US valuations more realistic and a bigger US enterprise will provide long term wealth to shareholders.
Door is open for Mondi to increase their bid. Let's see.
Unfortunately the big boys will take the IP offer hoping that shares listed in the US will give them a better return. For the PI's the Mondi offer would probably be a better deal.
Given that it wasn't so long ago that SMDS was trading over £5, whoever wins is getting the company on the cheap.
Should have sold last week.
Aless - Shareholders have not yet accepted the offer - all the board has done is recommend that they do so, it is in the hands of the holders to reject if they wish to.
I am still hoping that they will do a second listing in London .
Sad how the first thing they will do is to lay off 400 people. Sad that another stock is taken off from the LSE.
Unfortunately the shareholders have been short sighted and selfish in a way.
Quite possibly, deep - The Smith board originally agreed the Mondi deal, now they've switched in favour of the IP approach - the Mondi merger seems the better tie - up for DSS, according to most observers, bringing into being a European major grouping being a cleaner arrangement for existing shareholders, too.
Mondi has pondered this amalgamation for quite some time and now they've made their move for it, will they let it slip through their fingers for a modest improvement in their terms?
We'll soon know - sasa.
IP it is then.
Mondi still have till 23rd April to up their bid . It might not be all over yet !
Personally at this price I’d rather be out and put the money in other undervalued ftse, than deal with this nice problem and potential us tax
It's a high quality problem to have. You will be getting a good bump in asset value compared to previous valuations. What you do with it from there is up to you. Despite withholding tax and lower dividends, my US shares have performed far far better than my UK. ones.
If the IP price is currently much more favourably valued than Smiths is now, I see that as a big risk. I quite like owning companies that I can buy at low valuations where the risks appear low. Once I own IP shares Smiths will represent only a small proportion of it and I suddenly own something whose price could be over inflated. If earnings disappoint, the price could fall back significantly wiping out any theoretical gain in value. The Mondi deal would be the only one where I would retain the shares. Of course IP may go on to greater things and it could be a great deal but i would rather buy a US fund than an individual companies shares.
Martin, the secondary London listing is "Seek" or "Considering" and not a done deal, nor to be fair to International Paper would I expect more from them, at this stage. The problem is the dividends, apart from those in a SIPP, should they fail to list. Even filling out a W-8BEN would only reduce the US tax from 30 to 15%. As all of my investment is ring fenced in an ISA I don't want any tax deduction.
With IP we will get the gains of a US share rating as Meconopsis points out and with IP saying they will have a secondary listing in London it makes me slightly more favourably inclined to their offer, anyone else have that thought or am I missing something?
Wish I’d held 🤣 I sold at 400
Finger getting twitchy...
From todays price movement the market obviously expects IP to come back, will the Board entertain them, will they go hostile?
Interesting few weeks.