Member Info for Grapeboy

These results coming out are unaudited so that’s why they can be released faster. The audited results are for 15 months to end of March. This announcement will be a measure of whether they did in fact achieve somewhere within their stated profit range.

It’s a heavily concentrated trust and a number of the holdings have plummeted today so far. Relx, Sage, Experian to name just 3. Media companies

Like WPA also fallen sharply so probably AI fears?

Winterflood made £ 60m in FY21 and £48m the year before. It’s only the last couple of years that it’s been struggling due to very low transaction levels in the market generally. Unless I have missed something any losses in any recent year have been negligible. It just hasn’t been able to repeat the performances of a few years back

Drop today likely due to Phoenix holding going ex div today.

I am hoping the recent rises were linked to emerging markets becoming more interesting where Abrdn has plenty of funds. It’s certainly pushed up my investment in Ashmore. The stronger pound of course then makes gains less valuable in sterling. Hoping for a re rating at some point. Phoenix certainly turning more positive which is good for Abrdn all round.

Assuming the Wood management want to stay an independent company, surely if there is “significant free cash flow” coming in 2025, why not put some kind of estimated range on that that might help the share price recover. I definitely don’t want a deal at £2.30 as I feel shareholders should be seeing some real benefit from all of the last 5 years of restructuring.

I would be extremely surprised if they accepted this bid with hopefully much better trading results coming through in the next year. The problem I am continually frustrated with is how some companies get away with such open ended statements about forecasted future profits and margins. Who will buy the shares on the back of their Q1 statement that 2025 will see significant free cash flow. What is significant. Phrases like high single digit margins are too loose as well. Is 7% high or even 6% in their world . The BOD should come out and make some real forecasts like many other companies do.

Nothing goes up in a straight line. I think this is gradually going to re rate upwards, but slow.

Debt was well over 1bn for many years when they were paying high and increasing dividends but had higher profit margins. But we had v low interest rates then.

We have to wait for lower rates to become actual before this will move too far. Overall going in the right direction business wise I believe

If the IP price is currently much more favourably valued than Smiths is now, I see that as a big risk. I quite like owning companies that I can buy at low valuations where the risks appear low. Once I own IP shares Smiths will represent only a small proportion of it and I suddenly own something whose price could be over inflated. If earnings disappoint, the price could fall back significantly wiping out any theoretical gain in value. The Mondi deal would be the only one where I would retain the shares. Of course IP may go on to greater things and it could be a great deal but i would rather buy a US fund than an individual companies shares.

This company has proven track record over 30 years of coming through any economic scenario and maintaining/ growing its earnings and dividends. The financial crisis of 08/09, covid, Gulf war etc have all come and gone but Close have continued to grow. It’s very worrying to see these levels and see so many similarly solid companies shares struggling but I have owned these for over 15 years so not gong to sell as I feel sure they will come through it.

It must be a bit upsetting when you downgrade and then the share price goes up 10pc..

Centrica must be one good example of a buyback that has worked well but that started when the shares had been completely oversold and when it was obvious the companies fortunes were changing. It’s also getting extended significantly so will keep their upward curve going. I don’t think the name change is the problem. They had to change it as they don’t own Standard Life brand any more. The problem is most likely too many underperforming and pointless funds in common with many other asset managers. Their ii investment I think will work well as it’s ahead of the curve in the way people want to invest their money. Abrdn obviously feel confident they can keep paying the divi and continue increasing buybacks.

At some point the UK, European and Asian markets will turn at which point things will look better but as we saw last year when confidence in the share evaporated it claws it’s way back with the daily buybacks.

4 years ago the Capita net assets on balance sheet were about £80m and share price over £1.20. 3 years ago the net assets were a negative £ 70m or so and share price somewhere around 33p. Today net assets £ 246m, share price 22p. Makes sense ??

If you look back to when the shares were doing well, throughout 2019 based on their annual review for 2018 and half year of 2019, the comparables to now are quite clear. Intangible assets were 1.8bn at end 2018, 1.9bn at end 2019 and are now 1.5bn after the write down. Net assets have been between 1.1 and 1.2bn since end 2018, so yes Goodwill represents more than the value of net assets, but that didn’t stop the share price shooting to about £4.70 during 2019 (on 512m shares in issue compared to 614m shares now). Clearly current low margins and low ROCE are having a negative impact, strikes and also maybe this story about Eurostar. But with sales likely to be a record at over 3bn for the year, operating profit forecast to be 200 to 215m for the year compared to only 57m for the half year, that’s not far from the operating profit of 2018 (257m). FCF looks good too so far this year. With debt lower than 2019 apart from the cost of servicing it, that can’t be the sole reason for where the shares are. I am holding for far better times ahead hopefully once the company gets its margins stable again. DYOR.

I have held these for a few years but their dividend is in my opinion far too low for attracting new investors and convincing me to want to hold on. It was fine when interest rates were near zero but there isn’t a lot of attraction at current levels of payout. Hoping for a step up tomorrow.

I also tend to think that Apollo may have had to reign back on some potential deals however cheap they may have looked given this banking crisis and also likelihood of higher for longer interest rates.

If you consider the recent benefit of the Centrica share buy backs on their SP off an incredibly blown to pieces share price, I would like to see even if it’s modest and stretched out some cash used for buybacks.

Hoping Capita can do the same too before too long.

I don’t understand why Goodwin haven’t gone for a share split 10 for 1 to bring the price down to circa £ 4.00 and help attract more shareholders potentially. The sometimes very wide spread on the shares is off putting as a buyer or seller. Reducing the number of shares in circulation as they are doing just reduces the liquidity even more. Unless I missed something I am not sure how I can participate in this tender via a share/SIPP platform but hopefully there is a way.

I was pretty pleased with the outcome today. The update was certain to cause some people to capitulate given the size of the possible provision and the uncertainty. More the fact that £600m of work has been recognised so far with no margin to show for it but I think and hope the team in charge are on top of these things now as they weren’t in the past. With debt massively improved, dividends surely now certain for FY 24, it should be looking a lot brighter going forward. You can’t compare the companies financial situation now to what it was 3 to 4 years ago. So great to see the SP come back positive on the day despite the partially bad news in the release.

I am definitely glass half full here with Marstons. All companies with property have taken a big hit the last week, all the REITs, being marked down vastly against their NAV values. If you take the last full year results, the last trading update and the fact that the country might escape a recession, things should start to look better once the better weather arrives. There are fewer and fewer
pubs every year due to all the known reasons unlike offices and warehouses and the good ones are doing well I think.
I will stick around here and hope for the summer to turn things in Mars favour.

Recent RNS on trading have highlighted all of the margin and cost challenges. As you can see already it seems to have all been priced in.

If the directors after all the work done to reduce debt, simplify the group, get rid of as much historic baggage as possible on the liabilities front were to entertain a discussion at or around 230p it would be ridiculous so the big question is how serious are the bidders. And would anyone else jump in now.
Of course the SP must jump somewhat tomorrow, but even if it jumped to the bid level which I doubt, it would be lower than periods during 2022 which is hardly saying something.
At least it has finally sparked some activity in this share.