Member Info for Grapeboy

I feel confident this company will grow for many years to come. It has a history of sudden drops but quick recoveries so hope the same today. The fact it’s a delayed new product launch isn’t unusual in this field surely.

Past comparison of dividends makes no sense. The 2018 rights issue (3 for 2 at 70p) makes the last dividend in 2017 of 11p not something that can be compared.
If this share pays a dividend it’s likely to be no higher than 1 to 2p for the time being. Maybe some special dividends could come in the early years once they start, which I guess won’t be this year.

All asset managers are being marked down at present, even the likes of Schroders last week. Think you just have to be patient, keep collecting the dividends and special dividends. I am not an accountant but doesn’t this share have £3.60 worth of net equity value at the last results?
542bn of assets under management and some growth achieved last year. The name change upset a lot of people at the time but I have come around to see it positively once I got used to it. I also like ii and see that positively. The price will probably just follow the general direction of asset managers .. could be up or down still but long term surely up. IMO.

I have had this share for over 8 years and very luckily sold out just as the pandemic became a reality at £5.60 in feb 20. I have been buying back in starting at £3.00 and buying is stages to ensure a good average. If you check the below data
Assets under management and share price(approximately on release date in April)
2015-$61.1bn - £3.00
2016 $51.3bn. £2.90
2017 $55.9bn. £3.50
2018 $76.5bn. £3.90
2019 $85.3bn. £4.50
2020 $76.8bn. £3.65
2021 $89.9bn £4.00
2022 $78.3bn. £2.23 as I write
This is really beaten up considering the above data and I feel that sooner or later the bottom is in sight.

Sorry Bladerunneruk but whilst I agree that there are far better indexes to invest in than the FTSE 100 index , for example the Allshare index or FTSE250 which over that time have done better, you completely ignore the main benefit of being invested in shares that pay dividends, the 20 years of compounding. Over a long period if you stay invested and buy accumulation units or reinvest all income that is still delivering a reasonable annualised return. What Is clearly bemusing to me though is the fact that companies only supposedly pay out a proportion of their earnings so over 20 years those retained earnings should be reflected in the index. The reality with many large companies is that they for years have paid out all their earnings and made their results look so much better by showing adjusted earnings per share. Also in the bad years they have written off a lot of retained capital in losses. The large UK listed banks have also contributed a lot to the poor index performance as they have destroyed so much value over those 20 years but are still in the 100 index. If you could exclude the banks from the index I am sure it would look a lot better. It’s bad but not as bad as you describe.

There was a rights issue 3 for 2 at 70p in 2018 making prior period share price comparison irrelevant. I think what is really relevant is looking at the state of the company in Jan 2020 and comparing it to now. The share price was close to £1.70 for a short period but had been improving.
Until institutional buyers return this will keep drifting with the market. We need the results to match the pre built expectations or better them to stop the rot. This share is one where so many holders must have capitulated by now. Why would anyone buy after so many disappointments. We need some bold investment bank upgrades to change the course of capita shares.

If M&S make the £500m (before adjusting items)they confidently forecast at the Christmas update, they are making adjusted earnings of 25p a share. Enough to reinstate a dividend. The market is clearly worried about cost inflation of the products it sells, .. wages, and energy etc and the effect on its customers of a severe income squeeze, but M&S food will probably do even better if people start cutting back on eating out. There are plenty of other businesses being hammered at present with no real evidence of a decline in sales to back up the share price drops. Only when the city sees the real evidence at results time will this reset itself hopefully upwards. There is plenty to support a higher share price if the managements already cautious outlook comes true,

My take on this share for what it’s worth is the following:
Nearly £200m of proceeds will be coming in after the Dec 31 year end so the forecast gross debt of £ 890m should be no worse than £690m with more proceeds to follow from other sales in the pipeline.
Capita focus on total debt but refer to post IFRS debt being at £427m at the half year. This could be down to less than £250m after the proceeds come in.
Capita said they are getting out of a lot of offices , many in London so surely that will reduce their IFRS lease debts so total debts should be coming down even more.
Order book looks strong with lots of contact wins
If it hadn’t have been for the one off pension payment and VAT reversal profitability in 2021 would have been good. Adjusted free cash flow at half year was over £140m.
Maybe with inflation and bond prices falling pension situation might look more favourable
With 1.68m shares they need £168m of basic earnings to have 10p per share. Even at 8x valuation that gives 80p valuation and chance of 3 to 4p divi for FY 22.
My reading is that no more one off adjustments / restructuring should be coming through in FY 22 and with 50m of annualised savings supposedly in the bag £168m of net profits are doable, even if it slips into 2023. Unless there is something ugly going to come out that’s unknown I cannot see how the current price is so low apart from the general sentiment affecting many similar stocks related to sudden higher inflationary expectations, maybe affecting margins in future. I see this share as significantly de risked from a year ago.

I have the same feeling now with Capita as I did with centrica last year before it started to turn around . Despite the disposals, clearly improving debt situation, restructuring completed etc, until you start to see it in the financial results it doesn’t create momentum. Even after the last results in Centrica’s case it did nothing. The upgrades by the brokers and banks seem to get things going with Centrica. The capita update given in December highlighted non cash adjustments coming for closed book life and pensions business and group finance systems. That will be a write off of assets I guess but no cash loss.The net debt figure quoted was before alot of the disposal cash comes through. I reckon another 6 months of drifting here before it finally turns, until then it’s daily torture.

There is a special meeting on 13th January for the approval for the sell off of the spirit assets. There was a trading update on 14th Jan 2021 so I would expect them to issue a trading update on 13th Jan. Until the government and energy companies come up with a way of keeping the default tariff from going up to the levels mentioned n the press of £1800 to £2000 It’s hard to see much happening to the SP. The results and outlook will surely be a function of how successful Centrica has been at forward buying energy in the last year or so.

They won’t have made a typo IMO.. The new owners must be taking on quite a lot of debt attached.
So whilst it doesn’t bring a lot of cash maybe it wipes out a decent amount off the debts of Capita.

I never considered putting my Sipp funds into II as it was a private company that I couldn’t find anything about online. I wanted to have a listed company hold my Sipp funds. If the deal proceeds then I would consider switching my Sipp to II. In terms of funds under management that must be where most of the investment money out there is to be harvested. I would think there is a lot to gain for them in this area. Abrdn are probably paying a very high price for this but it does transform the company profile.

Without seeing the numbers it’s impossible to say if they are overpaying but I have been an investor on II since 2011 and especially at the beginning they were far ahead of other sites, offering automatic dividend reinvestment which my other Sipp provider doesn’t do. Whilst it costs 9.95 a month the trading fees are low and are credits against trading costs. It’s great value I think as a customer. With free stock trading sites starting up and AJBell offering its low cost service app, margins could be very much lower per customer in future but these sites will take customers from other more expensive platforms. II’s Sipp is also very cheap and they offer friends and family free investment as long as the main customer pays a bit more each month. The research available has improved considerably this year through a variety of daily emails. Personally I think it’s a good move for Abrdn. They had the money available from sales of shares in their Indian investments. They are doing some of what Aviva is doing. Narrower focussed business closer to home.
The shares are of course very disappointing currently but over the period since 2006 there have been plenty of times when I have sold at almost double this price and bought back again in times like now. They have paid £1.20 in special dividends since floatation( with the share consolidations keeping the share price up) and very good typicality 4 to 5pc dividends every year. It’s a frustrating share but hopefully now can start to grow again.!

Anger at the poor overestimated guidance at half year on sales, margin and debt I would think.
If it is just a case of some project deferrals then at least sales are very gradually getting better and same for margins. No alternative really but to hold on and give it more time. I will probably buy a few more given this drop.

This has been down at the £2.00 level numerous times since the pandemic began and each time in a short period of time after has bounced back 10 to 20pc higher. Unless everything that was forecast for the second half at the half year results is turning wrong for the company which to me seems unlikely then with margins heading to near 9pc, a £7bn order book, higher margin business mix developing and growth in some sectors coming through then the bottom line EPS should start to see the benefit. I bought more at 2.55 and regret it now but I bought BP when it went to 1.98 last year and that worked out well. I bought BT at 98p too. Watching this fall in the last hour or two today gave me the feeling someone big wanted to push this below the £2.00 level to get it over with given its brush with this level before recently. I like many here want to see this one start moving in a positive direction so if this was necessary it could be the start of happier times.

Thanks… Vodafone said a deal was close… maybe a bit of a niche market though ?

With the half year announcement due on 16 nov, surely this should start to stabilise or even recover a bit assuming the market thinks the same dividend of 4.5 cents will be declared. I would be amazed if Vod can’t find a way to at least maintain the 9c paid annually for the last two years. That’s 6.9pc at the current share price. The last quarterly report was pretty positive on the growth front, so just as we see with WPP today, sentiment can quickly change.

I am amazed it’s not far off 2 years since the previous post.
This company keeps delivering, growing, has a business model that can perform even in very difficult times, pays a steadily increasing always well covered dividend and has easy to understand accounts. What is there not to like ?

I think the last update in June was very carefully worded. We will see negative cash flow as he refers to 2022 before it turns positive. Sales will be identical to last year at the same time. Maybe a good improvement in underlying margins . Debt will be the big change as he refers to good cash collection and of course the disposal cash. I don’t think the dial will move much tomorrow much as many comments posted on here. Too many other companies recently showing improvement, dividend reinstatement and with shares equally undervalued but still the SP doesn’t move. If there is a solid base from now on it will encourage more existing shareholders to buy more.

Shebur, if the value of buybacks in Q3 is 1,4b USD that is at current prices about 340 million shares. That’s about 1.7pc of all shares in circulation. Over time that will enable the dividend per share to increase more than it would otherwise. I am not a huge fan either of buybacks as many times they are used to try to bolster a falling share price but here I think it makes sense. One problem big energy companies have that they didn’t before is that a lot of funds must be gradually reducing their holdings or getting out of old style energy assets as all of the new electric/ hydrogen/ solar /battery projects absorb a lot of investor cash and tick all of the current boxes. Any price rise in BP is probably fighting against this need to sell down. BP of course over time hopefully will show that it too should attract these investors back.