Something positive happening soon, I guess, aimto - they don't want to be taking any chances now, given the rising demand for Nickel with this only held back by the Riverfort overhang and the exhaustion of the LTHs not being willing to add any more to it, for now, anyway - sasa.
Hi Laallee - nice to see you on here and hope all's well with you and yours.
Was just looking in to see how things were going with this and saw your post; my prime interest these days is Serica (SQZ) so that's where you'll generally find me, if you want to say 'hello' - sasa.
The yield is historic, Time2Buy - it's uncovered today, so expect a hefty dividend cut (50% would be my guess) next time.
Once that is confirmed, the sp will likely have 'bottomed', although the bribery allegations re: Sudan since my last post a few weeks ago suggesting a lower re-entry point was more appealing back then, doesn't help matters - sasa.
Always thought Norilsk would likely be the most interested party in AMC at some point, Julian, given their intention to withdraw from most of their overseas projects to concentrate on domestic developments they declared a couple of years ago.
Since then, we've largely met their appeal criteria and now with the Ni price moving steadily higher, let's hope that 'appropriate time' you mention is increasingly relevant - sasa.
Yep, can only agree, NewK - especially bearing in mind the currency gain on conversion to £ sterling, as you say - last time, the exchange rate was around the $1.35 mark, I think, so a decent 10% gain or so here, too, can only benefit the numbers to be reported.
The mkt's present anxiety at the macro level primarily (BOT shenanigans aside) is the only constraint on the sp right now that I can think of, vis a vis today's 103p level but the upcoming figs / RNS on the outlook, should reassure peeps and remind them how cheap this is - sasa.
should be encouraging once again with the lower gas price since last time (partly hedged at 35p helping) being offset by higher production and lower op. costs since then.
The renewal of the OFAC licence to use US equipment in respect of Rhum3 should be forthcoming, since it was granted last year upon SQZ's commitment to keep Iran out of things entirely, despite their 50% ownership of it (no management involvement nor cash receipts paid to them with that being held in escrow while sanctions remain in force) and nothing's changed in that regard.
Ergo, with the US Authorities being happy to issue the permit last October on these conditions which Serica has strictly adhered to, why would they not extend it?
There's likely to be an update on their acquisition programme, too, so the sp should be heading North again shortly; in the mean time, with SQZ currently selling on a p/e of 3 x or so, the overt value on offer is self - evident to me ... sasa.
Good observation there, HBLU, about somebody preferring a heavily debt laden / non - income producing project struggling to get off the ground, however laudable, whilst continually knocking the complete opposite situation here with SQZ . Is that what they call 'weird science'?
Hadn't realised he was so supportive of SXX in contrast. Given the fixation about debt, that's a contradiction in terms, if ever I came across it! However, I have a solution to the problem - sell the loss maker drowning in debt and buy the cash generator not having any - simples...sasa.
This latest speculation about SQZ and RRE is, perhaps, understandable but the question arises 'Who needs whom'?
Apart from similar mkt caps right now and each having some 60mmboe / 23k - 25k boepd, that's where the comparability ends, doesn't it? RRE has a good deal of debt, sizeable de-commissioning costs coming down the track and risks being refused operator ship of their recently acquired MOUK assets next year, if the OGA finds against them in favour of Taqa's challenge.
Serica has none of these risks, with a debt free balance sheet and similar cash accruals (its only de-commissioning cost near term is the 1% BHP share of the BKR purchase for which they received $1m in advance to deal with) so that's already covered. Moreover, they're already operating the BKR fields (assuming the RHUM US equipment usage licence is renewed in October) and continue to squeeze their op. costs with an increase to a 60% share of the BKR revenues / income becoming due from Jan 1 next year. So, the difference between them is quite stark at this stage, imv.
If SQZ thinks MOUK's major oil assets are worth going for to equalise their oil / gas exposure, then a T/O offer for RRE seems more plausible than a merger, given the above differing characteristics and that would avoid any management clashes which might otherwise arise - Serica's team is already an established and more experienced outfit than RRE's, with contributions from RHUM 3 and Columbus yet to come. They might well baulk at the de-commissioning costs involved with MOUK anyway...
That's my take on this notion, fwiw - sasa.
Hi CF73 - I think you might be right that this could be the turning point we've all been yearning for for so long.
I posted my comments to this effect a short while ago but it hasn't been put up on here yet, for some reason but it can only be viewed positively, imv - sasa.
than expected - the sudden drop in the sp illustrates that all too clearly and it will take a while for FRES to regain its poise as a more reliable Gold / Silver play. I think that AU is the more important pm contributor to profits these days, fwiw with AG / Zinc and lead accounting for the rest.
As for a T/O, 75% of the equity is held by a local billionaire, so nothing happens on this score without his say so. With only a 25% free float listed, he might even think of taking it private, given he's already got control and that implies that he wouldn't need to pay a premium for the balance, if he was so minded. Just a thought to ponder...
I cut a nasty loss yesterday at 720p and won't be looking to reverse that for a while, given the better / more reliable alternatives elsewhere to participate in the positive outlook for AU and AG - no point in 'treading water' with this one for now and thereby miss out on recouping the damage done here.
Sometimes one just has to take the pragmatic approach to things. Just my take, anyway - sasa.
On Tuesday, I believe, so we should have a better idea how things now look for H2 / their forecasts, etc., given the higher gold price of late and more so, the impressive upsurge in AG.
Given the latest negativity towards FRES by some houses, any positive news might well wrong - foot them to prompt a decent upturn for a change - sasa.
Well said, JA - echo your overview on this entirely. Successful businesses are built on sound foundations, not least on the financials, augmented by shrewd and competent management.
We have these pre-requisites here and on AIM, too - few can claim that on the Junior mkt.
I, also, have been in this for almost a decade now, so am very familiar with its history and am impressed by the recent 'sea change' the management has successfully embarked upon.
With the avowed intention to build on that via another major step forward, the potential remains exciting, imv but the current sp hardly reflects that but it will when we move on to the next stage.
Patience is all that's required at this juncture - sasa.
'Serica should have made some sort of acquisition by now', you say upomega. Give them a chance, I say; they're rightly bedding down their transformational BKR deal whilst carefully looking around for another quality deal at the right price, as Mitch has already stated.
That's the responsible management approach in my book, so just be patient. If Serica could be in someone else's sights while we wait, as has been suggested, then any opportunistic move for them won't come cheap, imv - the current stats, never mind the prospective multiples, suggest that twice the current price would need to be considered to gain traction on that one - sasa.
switching from here into this morning's re-listing of Rockrose Energy (RRE) prompting a softer SQZ sp today? Many maintain RRE's shs are still very cheap, post their Marathon Oil UK deal.
There are similarities with Serica but not many, imv... The last time I looked at the, then suspended, RRE, they are a small outfit with limited or no operator experience and although the MOUK deal is now throwing off a lot of cash for them, I see their operatorship licence in some areas is now being challenged with the OGA looking into the matter - not a good sign...
Good luck to those getting involved there but I prefer something more established, with seasoned management and easier to understand, so I'm sticking with SQZ as something I'm familiar with, especially ahead of their next updates. Anyone got any views on this, in case I've done Rockrose a disservice, unwittingly? - sasa.
Hi BIGBangs - I agree with Tiger's comment, just posted, fwiw...
Mexico isn't the ideal location for many investors at present but where is these days? Most miners are situated in fairly undesirable areas unfortunately (apart from the US and Canada where they're a good deal more expensive) but if value is sought and the political situation seems discounted, FRES should return to favour, especially if gold and silver holdings continue to be sought after - just a few years ago, these shs were trading around £20 or so. Good luck, anyway - sasa.
This is now moving in AG's favour, having recently fallen from 94 odd to 86 currently - good news for the likes of FRES at last. If this continues, it should spur interest in this leading gold / silver producer - the only FTSE 100 precious metals miner available at present.
The outlook for both pms remains promising in today's debt ridden / uncertain climate and although the political backdrop in Mexico is problematic right now, FRES looks quite oversold at present to me and I've picked up a few more, accordingly.
Just my take but always DYOR, of course - sasa.