Harbour Energy Share Chat (HBR)

Although already at their YTD highs, UK and European Gas prices continue to rise here, and new undoubtedly undervalued HBR is 60% Gas!

Good to see us up 2% for a change esp when oil is down. wonder what changed . vol is just normal

I think there might have been other restrictions in that they would have no day to day dealings nor take any profit from the co. which I read as including dividends. I might be wrong on that though.

Letter One themselves are not sanctioned so would receive the dividends but would not pass them on. A bit like BP can't take the Russian dividends.

Maybe they wanted to apply for sanctions to be lifted and it gave them a window to try. Does seem unlikely as you say.

You are 100% correct.

The issue is then why have such a 6 month clause in the agreement when they were very very unlikely to have sanctions lifted within 6 months.

I guess this means they will just take the enhanced dividend until selling up or sanctioned lifted in distant future…,

My understanding was that they could only convert if/when the Russians were no longer sanctioned.

I had forgotten that letter one only have 6 months to convert their non voting shares to ordinary share. Perhaps they are involved in the current goings on.

They only have just over 4 months to convert..lll

“The 251,488,211 Non-Voting Shares issued to LetterOne will not be admitted to listing or trading on any market. In the event that LetterOne’s Non-Voting Shares convert into Harbour ordinary shares within the six months following Completion, these would be subject to a lock-up period ending six months following Completion.”

“Following Completion, the Company’s total issued share capital of 1,691,590,026 shares, which includes the Non-Voting Shares, is owned approximately 45.5% by Harbour's legacy shareholders, 39.6% by BASF and 14.9% by LetterOne.”

It was the bondholders/creditors I was thinking of. GIC went below 3% a while back so not sure where they are now. I'm sure you are right about lock-ins long gone

Based on this easy to read document has the latest FT 100 review passed us by or is it cut off 26th Nov and we enter (if successful) in late December.

https://www.lseg.com/content/dam/ftse-russell/en_us/documents/policy-documents/ftse-faq-document-uk-2024.pdf

Don’t recall any PMO shareholders having a lock-in but there was with some kind of lock-in for new investors may have been GIC.

GIC owned about 3% in Harbour in January but not sure if they are still in.

Premier shareholders owned around 5% of Harbour, with new shares going to Premier creditors (18%) and Chrysaor shareholders (77%), including private equity firm EIG and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund GIC.

This is the document but I think any lock-in is long gone now.

https://www.harbourenergy.com/media/ejyhgqng/merger-agreement.pdf

That looks like a decisive move on the intraday.

Stupmy

Yes, it always amused me when the Nasdaq falls and the FTSE follows.

I don't lump the mag 7 together they are all different in terms of value. But with the s&p 500 at 30 times earnings something should give. I have sold most of my US shares recently and am building up index shorts in anticipation of a reset in the coming months .

Nss

I think we would have to know who is boa's counterparty to know what is going on. Didn't some pmo bond holders get shares with a lock-in. I'll have to go back and look at the prospectus.

#OPEC October oil market report

oil demand growth in mbpd

2024 cut by 0.11 to 1.93

2025 cut by 0.10 to 1.64

non-OPEC+ supply growth in mbpd

2024 unchanged at 1.23

2025 unchanged at 1.11

OPEC+ crude production fell by 557kbpd m/m to 40.104mbpd in September based on secondary sources

I think BoA has some exposure to the failing commercial real estate market in the US, not sure of the detail (might be indirect exposure), but apparently it's risks are increasing and it's working hard to maintain it's financial stability. I don't know the detail of the HBR interest (someone posted about it being a complex swaps situation), but if they are deleveraging their stock positions here and maybe elsewhere, it could re related to the risks I refer to above. If that were the case, it's probably nothing to do with HBR, it's just that time is against them and they need to shore up their risk profile.

Bank of America.

Just wondered if anyone had any thoughts in the role they are playing in Harbour. I know they are in our inner circle and one of our brokers but what do they actually achieve and for who. How do they make money, who loses etc etc.

I know its a very difficult question but there might be someone on the board that knows how these things work in general?

I agree with Stumpy that we could easily go lower and the answer I have to my question is E.

Come on traders, give us your views ??

I could not agree more and my interest is in the UK market and what I view as undervalued stocks. I think what happened previously (I've read about that also) will happen again. Money is (in my view) likely to rotate out of the big 7 and tech in general, back into the bread and butter inustries and I think the UK will benefit from such a rotation. Timing is important as your story suggests, you can be wrong for a while and lose money (or your job), but if over time it turns out that you were well prepared, you're likely to gain a lot. As I say, completely agree with your comments. Before such a rotation of funds though, we could see significant further chop and if there is a 'surprise' event that triggers a general sell off, we'd see further falls in SP's across the board. Consider where most of the money is wrt to stocks: it's in trackers. When that unwinds, everything has to come down. No matter how much you believe HBR or other stocks are currently undervalued, they could go a lot lower. For me it's more important than ever to consider risk. I think there is much more chance of an upside surprise here than a downside one, but I'm playing it cautiously.

Stupmy

I don't know anything about manipulation either but we have been here before in the UK market where 'old economy' was out of favour.

Back in the late nineties there was a highly respected fund manager called Tony Dye. He ran one of the UK's large pension funds.

As the dot com bubble inflated, he refused to put his funds money into overvalued tech stocks. Of course he under performed going from one of the best to one of the worst. But he was adamant. The 'best' tech companies were overvalued and then there were those with no income never mind earnings.

I seem to remember he lost his job a matter of weeks before the crash started.

Now imagine you are a fund manager today. FTSE 100 and explain why you are a few percent better than cash or join the herd chasing Nvidia et al for massive gains. Even the S&P 500 for 20-30% YTD.

But it will likely change just as before.

I don't know the reasons, I don't understand whether it's possible for the price to be manipulated to maintain the price low (I suspect it would be risky and illegal), I don't understand much in fact, but what I'm seeing with respect to the price action/TA/charts whatever you want to call it, is that the price still seems likely to come off. I think 258 or lower is quite likely now and probably we'll see 252 or lower. For interest I'm long but have been quite restrained per my views on price action.

Keep it simple - you don't see large scale M&A in a sector if the outlook is anything buy good.

They know.

I was hoping one up on wall street by Peter lynch would be there. I love peter lynch

I would say E. However, C makes the most sense IMO. But who knows.

Seems a strange decision at the wrong time but Eni must believe ? Or is their Tax situation different to ours even though they are in the North Sea but Italian?

"Italy's Eni has reached an agreement to merge its UK upstream assets (excluding East Irish Sea and CCUS activities) with Delek’s Ithaca Energy, a North Sea oil and gas operator.

This merger creates the UK’s second-largest independent oil and gas operator, potentially surpassing Harbour Energy. The deal, confirmed after the companies entered an exclusivity agreement, will combine Eni's UK portfolio with Ithaca's assets, including major fields on the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS).

The merger, expected to complete by Q3 2024, will increase production to over 100,000 boepd, with potential to reach 150,000 boepd by 2030. Funded through new shares issued to Eni, the deal will strengthen Eni’s UKCS presence."

Since the merger Harbour have been very quiet. We have numerous drills going on and constant news flow but we have to do the detective work ourselves to find out what’s going on with next to no news flow.

This has led the price to drift lower and indeed our Chairman has sold a few million shares for some unknown reason.

So is this just Harbour Investor Relations team not interested in communicating with the retail investors or is there something else in this.

Is the share being allowed to drift to:

A Help Slim to build a decent stake at a lower price with a bit of back scratching in Mexico later on?

B As Goldenbadger suggest BOA being employed to possibly swap 252m Letter one non -voting shares for Voting shares?

C Are Harbour quite happy with a lower SP as they get set to launch a huge Buy Back to counter BASFs possible ability to sell their shares in March?

D Just a reflection of market forces, falls in oil price and in line with other oil and gas companies?

E Some or all of the above?

Any thoughts?

No more entries….Good luck all…

£2.48

Bots £2.49

WM £2.53

Coll £2.65

ShaunCod £2.71

Gordon Albert £2.74

NSS £2.78

Persilchat £2.85

AlexT £2.88

Clued £2.90

Manc £2.97

Tigar £2.98

Koko £3.00

theancient £3.04

Bonker £3.21

Kign £2.48

Bots £2.49

WM £2.53

Coll £2.65

ShaunCod £2.71

Gordon Albert £2.74

NSS £2.78

Persilchat £2.85

AlexT £2.88

Clued £2.90

Manc £2.97

Tigar £2.98

Koko £3.00

theancient £3.04

Bonker £3.21

Kign £2.48

Bots £2.49

Coll £2.65

ShaunCod £2.71

Gordon Albert £2.74

NSS £2.78

Persilchat £2.85

AlexT £2.88

Clued £2.90

Manc £2.97

Tigar £2.98

Koko £3.00

theancient £3.04

Bonker £3.21