Member Info for grumpyoldman9

Ianfm,

Thanks for your analysis, appreciated.

It would be nice, but.... and I'm not having a go.... unfortunately I think your figures are wrong.

The report Page 1 states

"The returns announced to date under the B Share scheme equate to 29p per Ordinary share with a remaining NAV less estimated costs of 42.4p, after payment of announced B Share distributions and with the potential to incur up to a further 2 pence in terms of latent capital gains tax."

So, max return of 40.4p most likely and could be a lot lower if decent sales price not achieved which does not look quite so rosy, sadly.

I would like to be wrong and your figures right, but I fear this is not the case.

Good Luck all

Terry,

This is a repeat situation of that which we all discussed on 25th July.

ie HL getting their knickers in a twist and sending unhelpful and misleading information out.

plus ca change.

Good luck all

Grumpy

Laughton,

Yes, agreed, and I found this message quite disturbing.

The message quoted is from Hargreaves Lansdown, marked "urgent" of course (!), but I can find nothing from ASLI suggesting an imminent delisting.

I think it is just HL getting ahead of themselves.

I believe the correct assumption is that all assets are sold first and proceeds distributed to shareholders before delisting .

Hope I'm right......

Thanks Terry, I had somehow (!) forgotten about the CGT implications.

If accepting PHP it seems a no brainer to go for maximum cash as 40p is worth more than 0.3865 of a Primary Health Properties plc share .

Do people agree (or will a "new" PHP share be worth more than 100p)?

WTF ?

Off-topic ramping of unrelated share is most unwelcome.

Kindly F**K off

Chaps

This is an LGEN chat forum

If you really must go on and on and on with the very, very old debate about whether ISA or SIPP is better, please could you do it somewhere else.....PLEASE?

Yes read well to me also.....

so why the sustained share price drop......anyone ?

Dalius,

Your story made me curious.

I've just checked my Hargreaves tax certificate for 23/24 Fund and Share account and no tax was taken off for Dunelm dividends, which are listed under "UK Dividends".

Dunelm dividends do not appear under "Overseas Income" on my certificate. I do have others in this category (eg DEC), on which I have paid witholding tax, but not Dunelm.

So if you have paid tax on yours something is wrong somewhere.

I'm very unhappy about the continued curtailment of the dividend.

Initially I thought that it was justified by the fact that some sort of offer was imminent, however time has passed and nothing has materialised.

How long is this to continue - are dividends suspended indefinitely I wonder?

IP share price now $35.33.

So $35.33 x 0.1285 and divide by exchange rate of 1.24 suggests to me that the bid is (at this moment in time) worth £3.66 per SMDS share.

Yes the market maybe thinks (or hopes) Mondi will come back.

Or maybe that the IP share price will increase (due to the "synergies" of the combined company?).

Or maybe not enough people have bothered to read / understand the terms of the offer and think it is for £4.15.

It's quite an interesting situation - I have made my risk/reward decision, good luck to you all in making yours.

Chaps,

The headline "offer is for 415p per SMDS share" is bol***ks.

It is an all share offer, which will go up and down - presently, based on IP closing yesterday of (less than) $36, it values our shares at 371.8p each according to my calculations.

I have consequently sold £50k SMDS this morning.

Of course if Mondi come back I will have egg on my face.

Good luck to you all whatever you decide to do.

Previous posts provided an interesting discussion regarding DCF analysis chaps, my take on this for what it's worth.

Firstly valueinvesting (269p) and Simply Wall St (202p) are just silly as they are both based on 37p eps which is the preadjusted figure excluding extraordinary items so their analysis is worth nothing.

If we believe the CFO then €3.3 billion in free cash flow for FY24, given approx 27 billion shares equates to €0.12 per share, or £0.10.

Do your own DCF, or plug this into moneychimp, select 0% growth for next 5 years and 0% thereafter . This gives a DCF calculated fair value of 90p at an 11% discount rate, or 133p at a 7.5 % discount rate.

(What discount rate to use is a moot point. Wish I could get 11% reliably, but for comparison, Goldman Sachs predict a FTSE total return in 2024 of about 7.3%.)

So the TLDR is that purely on a simple DCF analysis VOD is presently well undervalued.

But maybe I'm just being optimistic - DYOR and good luck!

Grumpy

Hmmm yes I think it did..... its no wonder I'm a grumpy old man

Rumours? My brain is unreliable these days but my memory is of TWO takeover offers, one from MGM and one from Draft Kings (I think), both well over £22 and both rejected by management as being far too low and materially undervaluing the company !!

And they had to pay well above the ask price to buy in this quantity...... yes interesting

Etotheipi,
Yes, earnings per share 12.54p for the half year.
However, 7p is only the interim dividend.
Annual figures suggest EPS of about 25p, and against annual dividend of 24p last year indicates dividend cover of only just over 1.0, so not so good.
Grumpy

Lukee, Alessandro, yes, sort of (ref RNS 17 Aug). I believe he was able to exercise share options at that time (these based on performance aligned to total shareholder return) and shares were sold to meet the cost of purchasing the options. He has a lot of shares (more than 20 million?), so one would hope a strong personal interest in maintaining a decent share price.

Terry and LochinvarLass,
Thank you for your posts.
I too have made use of the HMRC tax SA calculator in the past, as it sometimes seems the only reliable way to determine out how the tax system works in certain instances!
Maxed out on ISA and SIPP which of course has to be first choice for most shareholdings. For remaining investments I have up to now tried to hold growth rather than income shares when outside of ISA/SIPP, in order to make use of the £12k CGT allowance, but as we know this is all changing...... and not in a good way.
So feeling rather jealous of your plan to up sticks, leave HMRC behind and move to the sun Terry.
The Grump

Terry,
Many thanks. I am with HL (which I consider a little expensive, but have provided a decent quality service).
As my dividends now take me into the higher tax bracket I take it from your answer that after completing the SA foreign income section I will have to pay (33.75% minus the US tax already paid of 15%), thus 18.75% to HMRC on my DEC dividends. Thanks
The Grump