A clever man once said “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the 'impatient' to the 'patient'.”
Martin, the secondary London listing is "Seek" or "Considering" and not a done deal, nor to be fair to International Paper would I expect more from them, at this stage. The problem is the dividends, apart from those in a SIPP, should they fail to list. Even filling out a W-8BEN would only reduce the US tax from 30 to 15%. As all of my investment is ring fenced in an ISA I don't want any tax deduction.
Please note that DSS have extended the deadline day for Mondi offers until 5pm on 23 April, from today date. This was on this mornings first RNS.
We all have to be mindful that the offer is on a share offer basis. The offer was made on 1 DSS share equating to 0.1285 International Paper share, not £4.00 to £4.20. At the close of play (US) on 26/3/24 our offer has fallen to (38.20/40.85) x £4.15 = £3.88. It is important that we all keep an eye on the NYSE over the coming days and weeks on IP, as their performance took a hit on the offer.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/uks-ds-smith-deal-talks-with-international-paper-2024-03-26/
You also need to account for currency fluctuations, which as of CoP on Monday 25/3/24 was £1 = USD1.264.
Thanks Trouts, that would have taken a lot of trawling through all the RNS's!
In case you don't look at the RNS's these days, DSS have published a statement, without any numbers. There is a call at 08.00 today using UK Toll Free 0808 109 0700 and Password DS Smith.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SMDS/ds-smith-plc-22683648220-q3-trading-statement-yyc0x04nrn2nzzv.html
Sollers, my understanding is that the Louth factory was in Lincolnshire.
DS Smith management are taking the tough decisions. The company are closing their Louth operation and the actual production ceased yesterday. So even though there is takeover proposals management are still driving the business.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crg7ll3zn8po
DS Smith are building a new preparation line for Kemsley paper machine 3, which will be operational in 2026. It will improve raw material handling, improve efficiency and reduce water consumption.
Not sure if it has been disclosed on an RNS, which is drowning in takeover documentation.
https://www.euwid-paper.com/news/companies/ds-smith-to-upgrade-fibre-line-at-kemsley-paper-mill-290224/
Gregson, Good advice from Trout on a broad level. A large array of shares in different sectors is the best way to avoid the swings of the market. I have heard that 13 - 14 shares in different market areas is the preferred method.
As for DSS there is a need for consolidation in the business. Mondi has a large presence in Eastern Europe whereas DSS predominates in Western Europe. In addition Mondi has surplus production capacity and DSS cannot fulfil all its potential sales. Therefore the synergies are good to strip out central overhead management costs and save money on the combined business. Being the potential acquisition company means that the acquirer is likely to pay a premium for the right to purchase the operations. This means being a shareholder in DSS is, in the short term, a better proposition to be in than that of Mondi however if that acquisition falls through, it is likely the share price with retract to close to where it was pre-taker discussion.
It is being said that if Mondi does acquire DSS then they will offer a share option package. This means that the DSS shareholders will get a slightly better share of the merged organisation.
As a result I plan to stick around for some time to see how this pans out. I had invested in DSS for the long term. I like the recycling concept and the growing and bespoke packaging offerings. The one element I was not too happy about DSS was their antiquated paper machines compared to their competitors. If Mondi can offer increased growth, economies of scale and investment, without losing the bespoke packaging offerings, then it could be a good business to be in for even longer.
American Rare Earth deposit (3,296ppm TREO) is indeed huge however the concentration is lower than that at Phalaborwa (4,400ppm) and that of Uberaba (5,800ppm). In addition the Rainbow deposits are chemically cracked and on the surface reducing operating costs, though there is a question mark on logistics and freight. American Rare Earths appear to be looking at beneficiation close to the mine.
I am not trying to diminish the opportunities of American Rare Earths, as it comes with some political and logistical positives, more flagging the creditability of the Rainbow offering.
To stop any confusion we are waiting in early Q4 on K-Tech facility results of separated RE oxides. This is the backend process. The front end, in the South African pilot plant, uses sulphuric acid to make mixed RE sulphates. Rainbow are still refining the pilot plant process, to maximise the efficiency of sulphate production. This will be done in parallel with K-Tech separation process. For maximum impact there are likely to be two RNS's but I would imagine the backend RNS will be published first.
If you have seen this before I apologise.
The interview looks at the importance of ESG; price stability potentially through hedging; credibility of the management; quality control through product assurance; reliability on the supply; workforce competence; pragmatic/systematic approach at each stage of the development; contingency when things don’t work perfectly; broad range of customers who are unlikely initially to accept you into their supply chain when it can expose their business or at least will limit that exposure; credible contracts etc.
https://youtu.be/Nemy0YTIEkA?si=grcC8H1K3QsY4AVI
Lynas must be really regretting putting their processing plant in Malaysia. First of all the government want to shut it down due to radioactive waste output and now they want to restrict exports. This is why geopolitical problems haunt the industry. George has made best endeavours to minimise this at Rainbow and perhaps why the back end metal oxide production will be in the US, for both South Africa and Brazil.
SunDrum,
Thanks for the link. I have serious reservations from page 8 "Acceptance by upstream participants that their intermediate
carbonate and oxide products need to be supplied to the downstream processors at price lower than those indicated by Chinese information providers for a share of the profits derived further down the supply chain". RBW must sell their valuable product for a fair market value not allow an end user to give a discretionary payment.
Yesterday analysts were expecting revenue at £5,687m and an adjusted EBITDA of £1,316m. Todays actual results show a revenue of £5,738m and EBITDA of £1,406m. As this is above market expectations, by about 1% and 7% respectively, I would expect this to result in an uprate of the SP.
The best news is that SC exceeded analysts pre tax profit expectations by USD 0.14bn. Hoping it should continue rising.
Coking coal is more commonly referred to as metallurgical coal, so I don't why Anglo always refer to it as steelmaking coal. As far as I am aware Anglo have a number of coal mines in Australia and have opened up a new mine in 2022. It maybe pleasing to note that the rainfall problems encountered is likely to reduce, as Australia moves from La Nina to El Nino weather patterns.
Thungela was established to take the South African thermal coal mining operations and allow Anglo to divest themselves from the ESG toxic operations. Before I get lambasted by Thungela share holders, there is still a need for thermal coal, especially in developing countries, who cannot financially switch to "cleaner" fuel/power.
Great interview. Mosaic moved quickly to seal a deal with Rainbow. So now there is the US government, through TechMet and a massive fertiliser company, who both have a vested interest in the success of this enterprise.
So what does Mosaic get out of the deal? There is potential profits from the rare earth sales, environmental clean up of a massive waste stack, sales of gypsum, almost at no added costs (depending on the final agreement) and exclusivity on the process, within Brazil. What does Rainbow get out of it? Sales of gypsum and Rare earths, access to another larger raw material, on site acid supply, infrastructure and logistics and a reduced geopolitical risk. There is the price of taking samples, providing a PEA and other feasibility steps to overcome.
Even George was surprised at the speed of Mosaic accepting the MOU. This can either be based on the need for exclusivity or their desire to turn their waste into a cash generator or possibly both. Whatever the rational it points to the credibility of George and his team and their process and partners.
I have never been as excited by a investment as this and I appreciate that there are hurdle to overcome but the risk to reward offering is immense.
Watch the whole but the critical elements are post 8 minutes 20 seconds.
Lovelyboy,
Belated thank you for pointing out the video. I thought it was text only. You, cadellin and SP were correct 50:50 was mentioned.