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Mr ST,
Thank you so much for these articles. Very informative and the one from the "Burundi Forum" sheds more light on why the government took the drastic steps to cease exports. The other from "Techtoday Newspaper" is very encouraging on the restoration of operations on or before 17 May. I wished RBW had sent an RNS to confirm this, it would have put investors minds at rest. George Bennett has stepped up to lead the operations and I guess address the problems encountered.
It is very interesting that "Burundi Forum" have a different take on Gilbert Midende's demise, to that of "Techtoday Newspaper". The reaction of the Burundi government points to the former being the more likely cause.
The management will be waiting on the outcome of the Astor legal case, in the summer, before reviewing dividends. The priority will be exploring and exploiting new deposits, though there should be enough money for both.
Here is the Air India article. It shows Cairn have the fight in them to progress with the injustice.
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/cairn-energy-sues-air-india-enforce-12-bln-arbitration-award-court-filing-2021-05-15/
Generally it is easy to turn a carbonate to an oxide by passing through a calciner/kiln/furnace. Think cement industry.
XCO3 -------> XO + CO2
Tornadotony,
Thank you for this. This had slipped through the net but I note the connection with this and the Estonia facility, in terms of supply and technology:
https://cen.acs.org/energy/energy-storage-/US-rare-earths-make-stop/99/i8
Nicodemus,
Lynas have a processing plant in Malaysia, fed from their operation in Australia. There is a small refining operation in Estonia. MP are rebuilding the plant in the US, Lynas are to build a new site in Texas and Pensana are building a refiner in Hull, UK.
This goes along way to answering my question, from an earlier RNS, why was RBW erecting the process plant in South Africa, miles away from the ore in Gakara? I did raise the geopolitical risk, as well as the skilled workforce, at the time as a potential factor but I thought at that time moving ore across to Tanzania, onto ships and up into South Africa as a little inefficient but clearly the BoD are far more astute than I gave them credit for.
In the short term we need to be mindful that China controls the refining business and there are very few buyers that we can turn to. In the medium to long term all bets are off with MP, Lynas and even Pensana to come on stream.
On the back of this I have taken the opportunity to add a significant RBW investment, at what I see to be a discounted share price.
Ziquart,
Keep to metaphors and avoid the maths! 0.00275>0.00058, so has risen.
Late last year George Bennett hoped that Gakara would break even in Q1 2021. Maybe they are waiting for April to disclose whether they have achieved this key milestone. If they do, then it de-risks this company further. I am actually envisaging an operational profit, based on the increase in commodity prices. Patience is key.
At least I am not Sus***Engineer. Thank goodness for small blessings.
Niocodemus,
Your sentiment may be correct but your facts are not. The Cumbria mine is for coking coal not thermal coal and this is what the green lobby are deliberately misleading the population on. At the moment Tata/British Steel are importing this coal half way round the world, burning heavy fuel oil, to ship the raw material for making steel. It is much better for the environment to extract the coal in the UK and transport it to Port Talbot and S****horpe.
Perhaps Stevie can't see that?
LB,
Remember our product is concentrate not refined oxide. If the Chinese reduce refined output who do we sell to? There is only 1 non Chinese refiner and they have their supply chain established. It will take a few years for alternative refiners to be built (UK, USA x2) in the meantime the price for concentrates will reduce. What we want is the Chinese to increase their output, increase the demand for third party concentrate until alternative refiners appear. This is apparently happening if you read the board over the last week.
Can anyone explain why the carbonate concentration plant would be built in South Africa, when the mine material they are processing is some 2,500km away? It means transporting the ore and the waste vast distances. either through the river and lakes and onto railways/roads in Zambia or across Tanzania, to Dar es Salaam and onto ships to South Africa. There is no mention of the plant coupling into the Sasol based process or being modified to handle the Phalaborwa phosphate spoil pile. There is more to this than the RNS is informing us. It could be that they have some initial processing in Gakara or they will ear mark the high concentration seams of rare earths for the journey to SA and leave the existing Gakara processing to meet the TK contract.
Yes South Africa has better infrastructure, skilled workers and geopolitically it offers less threats but someone out there must have a better appreciation of this than me, so please enlighten.
This should be good, in the short term, for RBW. They are part of the supply chain and a reduction or restriction in refining capacity would affect concentrate prices, as the supply chain is squeezed. It is all about supply and demand.
Remember that China does not have sufficient RE mining capacity already and hence them importing from Myanmar (Burma) and for us TK.
This should buy time and maintain concentrate prices until alternative refining capacity comes on stream.
DW,
Timing.
a
Remember the Chinese drove the only western RE supplier, MP, into bankruptcy. Demand in those days is not what it is now. Ask yourself who was buying electric cars? Apart from the Danes, who was building windfarms/turbines and who truly believed in climate change? The world has changed. The Chinese producers are struggling to meet their own internal market. Western governments saw how the Chinese treated Japan, from an incident in the South China Sea. There is a dash for supply. Look at the demand curves up to 2030.
RMac,
I can't see the SA authorities not giving permission. The material that will be handled has already been mined and processed. It is on the surface. Clearly they will have concerns about dust, emissions and process waste but as long as RBW does a professional job of fitting abatement and treatment facilities, there is no rational I can think this will not get approval. SA have still extensive mining, including coal mining and processing operations, so have experience in the sector. South Africa has significant unemployment and finance issues that I can see this going ahead.
Monarch,
It is one thing to get a pilot plant back up and running, after I am guessing it has been idle for possibly 15 years. Sasol sold the whole operation to Foskor and IDC in 2005. The USD 4 - 5m is probably to get this up and running. To build something that can produce 15kt/yr, mirroring the old Sasol pilot plant is unlikely to be less than USD 75m. If you look at the process flow diagram there is a lot of equipment. There is leaching, filtering, 5 stage solvent extraction, 6 stage stripping, mixing, precipitation and rotary calciner. They will need to have significant BoP equipment, as well as storage and probably utilities. The great and unbelievable news is that the costs to build the plant will be paid for in less 6 months. This is unheard of in most process industries. Even the most tight fisted accountant would not prevent this development.
Bardobeat, why the aggression to GK? Can you not do the maths?
I believe he is indicating a SP of about £3 per share for Phalaborwa alone. I have some doubts on the PE ratio, just based on the life of the stock levels but to be fair he has taken a conservative dilution. I would hope that RBW would use more rights issues and borrowing to fund the project. GK's logic appears sound.
There is a long way to go for Pensana to be a viable option. They have to raise the capital to build the plant, there are the planning approvals, there is the viability of the mining operation in Angola and the lower REE concentrations in that mining area. They do benefit from that railway line, to get the product to the coast.
I agree that the more refiners there are, especially outside of China, the better. We are less vulnerable to a price squeeze. The proposed Lynas refinery ,in the US, is a far more attractive proposition, to sell to. It appears to have a strong financial footing, having a viable refining operation and potentially US government support. That combined with MP, also in the US, offers additional avenues.
RBW are sitting on a viable, more than self funding, operation in Botswana and a fantastic Ex-SASOL concentration operation in South Africa.