Member Info for Alessandro

Thanks POTUS

@Mardler

Thanks for confirming and for getting through my post despite the autocorrect errors.

@gotreal Not at all. I am trying to work out why the share price weakness since shares were admitted.

I sold half of my holding in the low 50's with a view to sell the remaining in the 60's.. so not interested at all in seeing the stock sliding.

But valuation has jumped significantly since the shares were admitted. So what's next?

I wonder if the market cap will retrace to £500m, the market cap has quietly jumped by 30% since the share issue a few days earlier.

I can't work out if Partisan has bought more shares or if IQE changes the cutting rights structure resulting in Partisan higher voting rights

Id go with the former but can't really tell

Institutional ownership has not changed much since the stock was trading above £2.00, therefore not a factor keeping the stock in current range.

At some point a PE may find the £1.5 billion FCF attractive and may want to offer a premium. JD Sports is trading at around £5-6 billions. Well worth a bit of premium (maybe 20%) for a takeover?

Whats a reasonable exit point here?

@PPPA

Why did you sign your post as MACOM?

@Farruggia1967 how did you work out the figure of £146362500?

How did JD end up with little retail ownership?

@Shreeram9 75p equates to a market cap of £1b.

Can IQE consistently make profits in excess of at least £30m on a NET basis. Or is it too much to ask for a tech company in a booming sector?

I am curious to see if adjusted EBITDA in the high single to low double digits leads to some net profits or if we will still be burning cash through 2026.

We need fresh management.

@Dogsy1

It is unbelievable to me that we cannot go straight to 20217 revenue with the macro tailwind.

Almost never been profitable. Managed to sell 50% of my holding at the opening bell (surprised by the rise!).

I will keep the rest in un unlikely even we head in the high 50s just by sheer sector hype.

After all the dilution for a greater future, we do not even get significant guidance for 2027. 2026 only 20% higher than 2025, barely matching 2024.

Let's find out about 2027:

"Revenue growth of at least 20% in FY26 and H1 FY27"

As written, it is somewhat ambiguous. I would assume H1 FY27: +20% YoY vs H1 FY26 (and NOT vs H1 FY25).

Full year 2027 revenue should be approx. £140m. At current valuation we are already at a forward PS ratio of 3.

If net margins are in the region of 15% (considering the high depreciation cost and being optimistic) for 2027 we are already at a forward PE ratio of 25 (assuming £140m revenue).

Are you still feeling so bullish about IQE?

MACOM taking over would mean IQE-MACOM developing/optimizing product design for competitors and supply them. This would be seen as a conflict of interest. Competitors would resolve that conflict by scaling vertically or going to an alternative supplier.

@Moham26

It looks like you are right. Terrible executors.

However, as far as you know, is IQE proprietary of any manufacturing design difficult or impossible to replicate/circumvent due to patents?

IQE has some 100-200 patents (can't tell the figure exactly) but I can't really tell if they are of any value.

@gasher

I would answer to your question with a 'no'. The share price proved resilient. Even today, on the back of a suboptimal update, in the midst of a photonic sell-off (in the US) the volatility has not been as bad as it could have been.

I do have some concerns around profitability, that's a matter of wait and see. I don't want profits to quickly evaporate when demand goes down (for one reason or another). The operation leverage is too much here.

However I hope she was holding back a nice surprise for the earning release!

@heyhunty

Probably I have PTSD from Lemos, but I would have liked her to say something along the lines "we are contributing to the R&D of technologies and to the manufacturing at scale".

@jools2000

Forget about the sale of the company, they would have done it during the strategic review period.

They only need to give good guidance for 2026 and beyond.

Jutta Meier recently stated on LinkedIn:

"I am more optimistic than ever about the opportunities ahead for IQE as these technologies continue to scale."

Her optimism does not fill me with confidence. Is it the same announcement I should expect tomorrow? Optimism? What is the guidance for revenue and margins? The 20% revenue improvement announced on the aftermath of the placing, on the back of an anemic 2025 is quite disappointing, but acceptable if 2027 will see better figures.

The lack of clarity may depress the share price.

Jutta, if you are reading this post, please be clear tomorrow with the outlook statement.

@Moham26

I am going in this earning release very nervously. I know exactly what you mean, I have invested in this stock for long (in and out).

The salaries on their career web page are pitiful, not many openings to signal a significant ramping up in production.

Macom was a lifeline more than a strategic deal. Having them on the board will (almost certainly) undermine IQE pricing power within that LTSA (MACOM will try to get deals below product market pricing). A few companies want to own the EPI process and are already integrating vertically. Lots to like and lots to dislike about this business. The company would have done better going for an all share takeover with a fresh management.. so I that I would not need nerves of steel.

Wonder if anyone was interested at all in a full acquisition. I can't believe the best option they could find in several months of strategic review was to dilute the poo out of us.