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Started: sunshinedesserts, 18 Jun 2024 15:29
Last post: Realist1, 21 Jun 2024 10:13
I can only agree with the previous posts. The problem is that with public listed companies, everything is looked at in quarterly terms as opposed to the long term and this is a long term hold.
Interesting discussion as to what the true value is of DGE. History would indicate that companies with strong FCF and shareholder return such as Diageo/Unilever/Reckitt are less cyclical than many others due to the power of their brands. Inflation, amongst other things has chipped away at their volume versus value sales and PE ratios have dropped for the first time in years below 20 when they have previously operated in the 20-28x range.
The challenges will abate and we will get back there again, all things being equal.
It belongs i the 2000-2500 range. But Blackrock already a holder and now others buying may keep it at 2500. A great long term hold with guaranteed dividends.
Many shares were hyped up over the pandemic and, if you look at the trend line, it could be that DGE has merely returned to its fair value.
Https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/expert-view-diageo-crest-nicholson-mind-gym-flutter-greggs/a2444595?utm_medium=website&utm_source=citywire_it_insider&utm_campaign=home-content-list-1&utm_content=investment-trust-insider-latest-news-list&utm_pos=7
"Schroder manager Sue Noffke picked up a position in Diageo (DGE) after the valuation of the drinks giant sunk to a near-decade low.
Noffke added the Citywire Elite Companies AA-rated drinks firm, owner of Johnnie Walker and Guinness, to her £225m Schroder Income Growth (SCF) investment trust.
‘Over the past three years the shares have underperformed due to higher inflation and interest rates which created headwinds to sales growth and valuation,’ Noffke said.
‘[We] believe that the derating of the shares, which now trade at the lowest price earnings multiple in almost 10 years, has created an opportunity to initiate a modest position."
Added a smidgen last couple days at 25.60...
Slàinte Mhath
Started: fatprofits, 11 Jun 2024 23:19
Last post: steviewonder77, 18 Jun 2024 13:51
Realist/i met Garfield Weston a few times ,he had a nice house by Regents Park. He must be brown bread by now
Loaf/sorry,its an age thing
Realist/about 50 yrs ago i worked for ABF and they owned it then
Steviewonder77, Fortum's and ABF are subsidiaries of Wittington-Investments owned by the Canadian Weston family and headquartered in Toronto.
@steviewonder 77 Nobody will be drinking any Scottish whiskey at all !
There's no e in Scottish whisky :D
Started: Lending, 5 Jun 2024 13:53
Last post: Alas_Smith, 18 Jun 2024 10:52
With the exception of planning for IHT when I eventually peg out, tax has never been a factor in the decision for an investment. In terms of long term, until last year I had just 1 equity in my portfolio held since 1979. It was Shell (in its various incarnations, (Shell Transport and Trading/Royal Dutch Shell/Shel) and gifted my remaining 50 shares to my younger son to seed his SIPP.
Scrip shares were beneficial in building my stake in Shell, but the real gains were from capital uplift. Minority shareholders with a holding under 1% issued share capital are not practically affected by share buybacks hence my preference for cash.
Alas_S. If you have to pay tax and would like to increase your ownership of the company, which is better depends on your tax situation I should think. Some of us have to pay 39.35% dividend tax on cash or scrip dividends and only 20% CGT on buy-backs which can also be deferred. If you believe in the long term future of the company, and want to increase your ownership over time, buy-backs would seem to me to be the preferred option for some taxpayers. It certainly is for me, and I vote in favour of it in AGM resolutions
As you can't even spell his name tou complete clown..
* Buffett
Porsche/Obviously Buffett has not your superior knowledge ,when it comes to stock picking.
Surprised buffet got involved with this after ulvr and Tesco which were a loss making waste of time for him, Diageo another dog, it was only the last ceo keeping this together….buffet should know that U.K. shares are known as “ the bug zapper trade “.
Started: driftking27, 7 May 2024 11:26
Last post: MarsB, 13 Jun 2024 11:37
Is that because this is considered a bond proxy share? ie. interest rates are high, so this is deflating?...along with all other bond proxy shares!
Yeah,i also bought today,i now have my position.
Happy to top up down here.
Recent performance has been miserable. Going steadily downwards week after week. Enough to drive you to drink...
I forgot to say ,i started a position today. I will be adding if it drops from here
Started: driftking27, 10 Jun 2024 17:33
Last post: driftking27, 10 Jun 2024 17:33
Looking at charts my point of view has been true.
There is a bounce very soon at a gap to fill at 2563p.
Gla
Last post: schjmh, 31 May 2024 12:50
I think Debra Crew needs to dig deep in her pocket and buy some shares to show confidence in the company she manages.
Diageo has been buying its own shares for ages and the price keeps going down and are clearly not working. I know the theory of why they do it but I would rather have had a special dividend and I can decided what to do with it.
Started: Ratboy1971, 29 May 2024 08:14
Last post: Ratboy1971, 29 May 2024 08:14
At these very reduced levels. I've just grabbed me a small position here..... will look to add more if id goes lower but already £1 lower than i ever thought it may go
Started: DushySundar, 23 Apr 2024 11:35
Last post: driftking27, 28 May 2024 19:56
Buy backs smaller due to anticipation of SP falling back. That’s what has transpired.
That’s my view
Anyone know why the buybacks have been so small for the past few weeks?
They have been averaging around 3,000 shares per day recently which is a drop in the ocean and isn't going to increase the share price.
The buybacks continue (for over a year now) and don't seem to be stabilising the share price. I would much rather they issue a special dividend and then I can decide what to spend it on. At the moment the Board is probably more concerned about the value of their share options and bonuses
In theory the value of the business is unchanged by buyback but as there are fewer shares after a buyback, the profits available for dividends per share increase as there are fewer shares to pay dividends to. With respect to company assets, If you take the logic to absurd levels, if a company buys back large quantities of shares then eventually you might be left with one single share worth the same as the company. Thus the share price should increase as the net assets of a company are divided by fewer shares, and the dividends should increase. In practice, one has to ask if the business had better purposes for using the funds, like growing the business, and ultimately share prices are largely determined by market sentiment which should be rational but is largely determined by emotional sentiment and group think. Broadly shareholders benefit.
Hi, what would happen to SP if they execute the buy back scheme. Will it go high? Pls explain anyone.
Started: driftking27, 21 May 2024 19:20
Last post: driftking27, 21 May 2024 19:20
Looks like since January there’s been no progress.
This might continue lower until next results, as the risk on trade could continue, with defensive stocks hit in this run we’ve had…
My latest picks doing well with GS, CROWD and MUT
Started: TheLoaf, 26 Feb 2024 14:25
Last post: TheLoaf, 10 Apr 2024 21:11
@gym121 i already hold & trade Unliever & wanted a bit more diversification.
I usually add Unilever when the price drops to around 3800 or below & i sold the last tranche out at round 4400p.
Unilever or diaggio... ??? Diaggio has had lower lows higher highs for 2 years, last couple weeks looked as though may have bottomed but then down again. Any reason why it should turn round right now ???? Maybe unilever is better.!
As of last week, I hold Diageo shares for the first time ever.
I usually like a higher dividend yield, but thought the recent decline in the SP offered a decent opportunity to invest.
Started: stargate, 14 Mar 2024 11:03
Last post: gwm121, 5 Apr 2024 19:52
Hi star
i did buy small amount and out today 2 percent loss to buy caspian oil..
No on knows but my opinion upside her limited and as u say might not even break out. This and unilever have the "moat" of uncopiable products people wont change from. Im not so sure. Caspian still risky but much bigger upside
imo.
DGE, requires to close above midpoint 2951.75, of midway value between recent peak and trough, to have a chance at reaching recent peak. Relative strength index shows negative divergence between last two peaks, implying a likely sp, fall.
The January low and higher February low, defined an up trendline, however the March low, brought into play, a much reduced up trendline, in terms of reduced angle. February and March lows, are much in line, implying that DGE, may now be in a sideways congestion pattern. If the sector is not breaking upward, there is no impetus for DGE.
Started: ICB888, 24 Feb 2024 17:44
Last post: ICB888, 24 Feb 2024 17:44
Times Business today has an article on potential takeover targets due to low valuations in London. One of the companies they feature is Diageo:
“ Diageo
Banking sources took the unusual step this month of denying there was any dealmaking afoot when The Times reported rumours of a bid for Diageo. The FTSE 100 drinks maker had a wobble recently when it issued a profit warning, started a search for a new chairman and brought in Rothschild's bankers to serve up Pimm's to new - investors. Jefferies' analysts said they had no idea if anyone would want to buy Pimm's.
Debra Crew, Diageo's new chief executive, has been having "tough conversations" about how to restore the company's reputation as a solid stock. Diageo's share price now sits at £29.86 and, with food and - beverage businesses attracting average premiums of 41 per cent, it is thought that the guardian of Guinness could change hands for £94 billion.“
Added in 2700's 2800's & today 2900's
A quality share to have in ones PF
Now accounting in USD .... 👌
gla
Started: fatprofits, 24 Jan 2024 13:27
Last post: Hardboy, 30 Jan 2024 12:51
That's made me feel better as I was toasting Mr Burs with Lagavulin.
On their results: pretty much as expected I think. Disappointing, but hopefully just a minor blip in the scheme of things. They've just been on Business Live and seem to be pretty optimistic about the future.
Trouts yes, tried them all, Singleton not as peaty as the two you like. If peat is your thing, try Laphroaig (if you haven’t already).
On DGE, I think many of their brands are in danger of rapidly losing market share because of the transition to more premium brands, despite there being a cost of living crisis. Gordon’s, Captain Morgan, Smirnoff. I’d like to see a heavyweight like Diageo trying to sweep up a few of the smaller players, like DIS and EISB, to expand their brand portfolio. To my mind a much better use, in the long term, of their financial clout than share buybacks.
Talisker and Lagavulin are my two favourites of their stable. Not tried "the Singleton" yet, the advertising put me off somewhat. Any whisky drinkers here tried it?
"pubs are additional and I don’t feel have much impact"
I tried to help pubs sell their spirits on Burns Night! Trouble is I can never remember which malts are Diageo's
Yep, a lot of dge drinks are purchased in supermarkets for home consumption. I have 4 bottles of spirits in the kitchen which are not mine (the other half’s) and 3 of them were dge… pubs are additional and I don’t feel have much impact at all tbh
Last post: jockosjungle, 30 Jan 2024 09:50
It went up a great deal the other day on the back of someone else's results, so a modest decline is probably not that bad (rather than expecting it to raise much higher again). I've given up trying to figure out rise and falls after updates, the market just seems to do whatever it wants.
Lagavulin is still my favourite, but prices are through the roof nowadays (seems the same with all brands). I've had Singleton, don't remember too much about it except I didn't buy a bottle at the distillery (I might have been whisky'd out on the trip) so probably not that keen.
Interim divi 40.50cents
LAC ......Latin America customer/consumer down trading!!
Huge waist of Buyback cash verses today's close price & DGE states it's been returned to investors.
Markets always suprise me with results or trading updates.
gla
Started: driftking27, 28 Jan 2024 23:11
Last post: Blakester2, 30 Jan 2024 09:33
I totally agree.
With all due respect who on earth cares about FTSE average when Diageo is better than 90%+ of other companies in the FTSE. The best spirits portfolio on earth. Optionality on EM growth. Look at its excellent ROCE, net income margin, cash conversion, etc, etc. Yes, they've taken a knock. And the market may well throw its toys out of the pram on Tuesday. But LT there are few other companies in the FTSE I would rather own. Diageo is anything but average. If the future is anything like the past the current valuation is a steal
Forgot to mention trailing p/e if the CAC is 22.6, and forward P/E is 16.9.
Still think DGE is going to fall on the news from reiteration of profit warning
The FTSE on Friday 26th Jan 2024 traded at 15 x
DGE trades at 17 -18 x based on possibly EPS of 151p.
Compared to KO which trades at 24
BUD at 20
PERNOD at 17
PEPSI at 28
It is still expensive to forward earnings for this yr versus FTSE average.
Let’s see what happens over this week.
Started: MoneyWorksForMe, 26 Jan 2024 10:14
Last post: Exoplanet, 26 Jan 2024 13:48
The positive updates from LVMH and Remy Cointreau sending DGE up but hoping the numbers next Tuesday are a beat with an upbeat statement otherwise can see the sp giving back today's gains. Trimmed my holding just in case...
Gap up before earnings? Hmmm im gonna wait until after now as ive seen this pattern many times before, its likely to fill that gap at 2700 could go lower too but watching for now.
Decent tick up 2800p ++
Https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/diageo-turns-off-direct-supply-to-wholesalers-below-2m-threshold/
DGE will use 10 major wholesalers in the UK ......... bad move in my opinion.
Their secondary product ranges will take a huge hit!
Wholesalers who have been delisted will purchase MUST HAVE DGE brands from one of the 10, however, the same delisted wholesalers will NOT promote DGE "me too" secondary brands.
This is a classic accountant blunder.
Started: nitroxhotshot, 23 Jan 2024 11:45
Last post: driftking27, 24 Jan 2024 12:39
Sorry, mistake on numbers. Estimates was 180p for EPS by 2027, not 2025
Still has STRONG SELL indicators on graph today…
Market has still to react to the results. This is where we will undoubtedly see a big fall for last 6months of falls.
On a graph, the SELL signal has been broken for a few weeks since I restarted watching this behemoth.
We’re loooing maybe at 151p soon in results, but in 2025 could see that sane period reach 180p Iv see estimates revised to on Nasdaq.
So, in essence, Imic you were new, I’d drip feed 1/3 in now, then hold 6months and review and top up 1/3 then another 1/3 2025. That way you get fluctuations in markets and companies growth strategy.
Iv played most stocks like so for 21yrs
Morgan Stanley maintains DGE underweight 23.80p on 23rd January.
Let's see next Tuesday. 2024 Forward Estimated EPS 151.25p (17 analysts' average consensus)
2025 Forward Estimated EPS 164.14p
2026 Forward Estimated EPS 175.88p
gla
Earnings report on 30th though. how will market react?
I've always wanted some of these! I've bought in today too. First tranche. This is one I am happy to average down on from
here if it keeps dropping.
Started: driftking27, 24 Jan 2024 11:05
Last post: driftking27, 24 Jan 2024 11:05
Though, I’m not adding more yet until after news…can see market pullback due to 2/3 ‘s of S&P 500 stocks being expensive.
Started: Ade1234, 6 Jan 2024 21:52
Last post: driftking27, 21 Jan 2024 19:31
Berkshire Hathaway's Diageo plc - ADR Stake
Warren Buffett acquired 228 Thousand Diageo plc - ADR shares worth $31.6 Million. That's 0.01% of their equity portfolio (36th largest holding). The investor's estimated purchase price is $40.2 Million, resulting in a loss of 21%.
THE messiah did BUY a few 292,000 in Jan 2023 in the disclosure, maybe he has been acclimating since then.
But remember, it’s NIT BUFFET running show and pressing the buy. He has his associates that do this.
He has bought GSK sold it at a loss, he bought all top pharma’s and sold in Jan 2923. Silly that was. They have outperformed many shares tbh.!
Good luck, still watching here, and looking at buying more Goldman very soon…
Buy a 40.3M shares here last year?
Started: driftking27, 3 Jan 2024 19:14
Last post: DimitryReacts, 10 Jan 2024 11:55
Sold 509 shares this morning for a tidy profit. Will keep around 800 shares in here for the future. Looks good.
Oop! I meant to type 2,675p!
I concur with the 2,650p call. I'm looking at front running that level and taking an initial position at 2,750p.
Watch and see any possitive movement around 2650p. That’s where I will be purchasing more, and hopefully others too.
The only trouble we have now, is the pubs / restaurants trend is not as flush as it were in 2021/22.
So, there may be more headwinds due to price pressure, along with the canal SUEZ, which they say effects could last the whole yr with delays in imports…
Started: driftking27, 28 Dec 2023 21:31
Last post: driftking27, 28 Dec 2023 21:31
This is the one reason why DGE & co may continue to falter
‘…Magnificent Seven Loses Importance as Soft Landing Means Risk On’.
Started: driftking27, 28 Dec 2023 20:21
Last post: driftking27, 28 Dec 2023 20:21
I still believe DGE will see a downtrend for some time .
2600-2650p is my buying area
most brokers SOCIET General, JPM, CITI, UBS, RBC have underperform around 2550-2750p targets for a bottom.
Started: Alexarmstrong, 15 Dec 2023 14:05
Last post: driftking27, 28 Dec 2023 20:00
Don’t be fooled by BUFFETS purchase in January. It wasn’t BUFFETT buying but his management team. He is 93 remember.
His associate has gone too, Munger too 96!
He started a position of 292,000 shares in DGE a drop in Occean! He has $157bn still waiting to be spread. When it happens that’s the word. ## WAIT and hold until March. That’s where I de true #VALUE. Possibly a rerun of 2009
But those whom follow stats would I'm afraid differ with that statement at this time in the cycle.
2024 will be a choppy one, a volatile one for 1st half I believe, maybe similar to that of 2009.
I'm waiting until Feb-March to go shopping DGE, GS & MUT
Diageo highest historic PE - 34.5
Lowest recorded PE - 17.25
Median PE - 32
Buy, top up. Whatever you do don't sell at these low prices. Buffet saw value in Diageo around 3,400.
Be greedy when other are fearful