Spire Healthcare Share Price (SPI)

Just thinking about the extension and next steps etc.

Obviously a 2 week extension , rather than the standard 4, is v.good news IMHO as it shows the deal must be close.

However, were Tosca just trying to flush out a higher bid and don't want to hold the baby?

Whilst £2.50 is not a great price, Tosca has offered just enough to get BOD and hopefully other shareholders interested. I think they will clearly try to re-list it in a few years, at a much higher price.

Then there is the offer to elect for an unlisted rollover equity alternative in respect of some or all of their Spire Healthcare shares. This is interesting.

So a big shareholder like Mediclinic, who own c30% of the shares, could keep their shares and benefit from a higher re-listing etc. As Tosca and Mediclinic own c 50% of the shares between them, the cost of acquiring the company at £2.50 is a lot lower than £1bn. Potentially they might only need to pay 20% or 30% of that amount if other larger shareholders sit on their hands.

As mentioned the 10% discount is not unusual in these circumstances as no official bid has been made and even when it is received the SP will probably trade at a 5% discount due to opportunity costs etc.

Not long to wait now

Sorry not Divhunter (apologies) - this for Pmapma, who made the original comment.

Divhunter- don't be so naive.

Currently a 10% discount. The deal is not a formal one yet, so that will account for maybe 5%. Until it is formalised there is still a chance it will not materialise.

Then there is the opportunity cost of having your money tied up - i suspect this will take c6 months to complete, maybe longer. That will be the other 5%.

There is money to be made here if you have patience, however, the upside is clearly limited.

Trump might decide start a war with UK.

In the scheme of things it is pretty close - circa 10% discount which is normal to cover any unforseens and because the risk reward is such that the bid dries up.

It's not closer to 250 because they also have the right to lower their offer before the 2 weeks is up!