Member Info for Divhunter

Takeover code requires any shareholder oening over 1% to declare their position every time it changes so each rns is with regard to different holders.

To be honest I don't understand why the major shareholders haven't been increasing their stake while the shares were cheap. You either believe or you don't. I can understand mediclinic not wanting to go over 30% but the rest? That's what I've done & I'm now 25% up on my entire holding at today's price. Why didn't they do the same when it was £1.60? Personally I want it done now asap so I can move on.

Agreed, the deal is going through, the question is at what price? The board will recommend the deal, 50% of shareholders will be on board whatever the price. The question is how low an offer will get it through. Chances are half of the independent shareholders will not take part in a vote, they'll be assumed to be supportive, so that leaves Tosca looking to convince about 15% to get it through. I'd definitely go for £2.50 at this point, probably would accept £2.40, I expect them to put the offer in at £2.35 and it will go through.

It's not closer to 250 because they also have the right to lower their offer before the 2 weeks is up!

"The Proposal includes an option for Spire Healthcare shareholders to elect for an unlisted rollover equity alternative in respect of some or all of their Spire Healthcare shares." Unlisted rollover alternative means 2 things I think - 1) if your shares are in an ISA or SIPP as most of mine are, selling is the only option. And 2) mediclinic, the major shareholder, would be able to hold on to all their shares or as many as they like. So minimal cash needed by Tosca and it gets rid of most of the PIs at a low value. Underhanded method of getting a good listed company on the cheap, shouldn't be allowed.

My notification from ii came via email timed at 10.42 yesterday. Not sure I've missed out on anything. Placing price based on the closing price on 29th, not certain to be allocated what you asked for, so what do you do with them. Sell some of your existing at today's price to make the profit & take the chance on what you get? Only a good deal if you think they're going up from £14. Happy holding what I have, not putting anymore in, and taking the divi when it comes.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/757f1e11-5fa3-4b08-a51b-e5a5448e0f3e

No. "The sale has been agreed on a debt-free cash-free basis. The net proceeds from the transaction will be distributed to secured creditors in accordance with the intercreditor agreement entered between Petrofac and secured creditors."

Aren't we saying the same thing here? They might want to sell but only at the right price. If they can't get that, plan B, take the lot at a lowball price & then get rid.

Mediclinic , or more importantly Remgro, hold all the cards here. Put yourselves in their shoes. You own nearly 30% at way over the current SP. You can block any lowball offer by another party. If you want to own or get out, it's up to you.

You want shareholder value out of the company one way or another. So you force the process. Board os Spire, find away to deliver shareholder value or you're out. Find a buyer at the right price or face the consequences.

£2.30 is no good to you. So block it if that's all you can get. Let the SP fall if you can't get more. Then step in with a mandatory offer of your own. 3 percenters don't matter, private shareholders don't matter. When it falls to £1.50 make a take it or leave it offer for the company.

You take full control with an average of just over £2 per share. Then you either build up a bit of value or get rid to one of the bidders at £2.30. Job done.

I've averaged down to £1.90, I'd take £2 now with pleasure. I fear £1.50 but it wouldn't be a disaster.

If you deep dive me far enough you'll get to Cosalt when the shareholders were shafted by David Ross. Seen it done, should have learnt the lesson that when somebody owns nearly 30%, they have all the power.

Rothschild are working for Remgro, not Spire. I hope I'm wrong and there's another bidder in the wind but nothing would surprise me now.

The Amazon connection is old news & not relevant. DHL took over the parcel business & dropped Amazon. Amazon largely do their own now. Smiths are currently running a fairly efficient network but still too dependent on news delivery. Every attempt to diversify so far has failed. Good long term contracts are in place with the publishers, hence the confident outlook. However Smiths are not in control & if the publishers cease publishing certain publications there will be no value in the contracts & Smiths will be left hanging. There is good value in the infrastucture & the share is currently good value due to the dividend. But a smart investor should have an exit plan. I'm a long term holder here, have managed my holding by buying low after a good while underwater & am now sitting pretty with an average below 40p and divis in my pocket. I'm hoping to get a couple more years of decent divis before exitting prior to the inevitable crash.

Ok, won't let me post the link.

"Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI.L), a stalwart in the UK’s private healthcare sector, is catching the eye of investors due to its promising potential upside of 61.92%. As a leading provider of a wide array of medical services, Spire Healthcare is poised for growth despite current valuation challenges. Let’s explore what this means for investors looking to capitalize on the healthcare sector.

Spire Healthcare operates a robust network of private hospitals and clinics across the UK, providing comprehensive medical services ranging from orthopedics to oncology. This expansive reach places Spire Healthcare in a unique position to tap into the growing demand for private healthcare services in the UK. With a market capitalization of $681.62 million, the company stands as a significant player within the medical care facilities industry.

Current financial metrics paint a complex picture. The stock’s current price sits at 169.4 GBp, within a 52-week range of 167.80 to 249.00 GBp. Notably, the company lacks some traditional valuation metrics, with a trailing P/E ratio and PEG ratio unavailable, presenting a challenge for investors relying on conventional valuation techniques. The forward P/E ratio is notably high at 1,208.96, indicating expectations of future earnings growth or a potential need for recalibration.

Despite these valuation complexities, Spire Healthcare’s revenue growth is steady at 4.50%, complemented by a positive EPS of 0.05. The company maintains a moderate return on equity at 2.57%, and its free cash flow stands at a healthy 32,712,500.00, providing a cushion for operational needs and potential investments.

Dividend-seeking investors will appreciate Spire Healthcare’s 1.37% yield, supported by a payout ratio of 50.00%, indicating a balanced approach between rewarding shareholders and retaining earnings for growth.

Analyst sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with seven buy ratings and no holds or sells. The target price range of 240.00 to 300.00 GBp suggests significant upside potential. An average target price of 274.29 GBp translates to a considerable 61.92% potential upside from the current levels, making it an attractive proposition for growth-oriented investors.

Technically, the stock has some ground to cover. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages stand at 225.80 and 211.60 GBp, respectively, indicating the stock is currently trading below its recent averages. The RSI (14) at 51.72 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, while the MACD (-15.11) and signal line (-9.39) indicate a bearish trend that may warrant caution in the short term."

https://www.***************************/spire-healthcare-group-spi-l-stock-analysis-navigating-a-61-92-potential-upside/4121229989

I should say, unless the bidder is mediclinic, whose share holding would probably be enough to swing the vote either way regardless of what the bid is.

The last takeover bid at 240p per share was in 2021. Recommended by the board but rejected by the shareholders. Since then there have been more acquisitions than disposals & the property portfolio is in the process of being revalued. It has to be higher than it was then. If the major shareholders though 240p undervalued the company then, and they are still the same ones now, any bid has to come in significantly higher now to be acceptable.

This is what happened in 2021.

"The proposed £1 billion takeover of Spire Healthcare by Ramsay Health Care failed in 2021 because it did not secure the necessary 75% shareholder approval, primarily due to opposition from key investors who believed the offer significantly undervalued Spire's business prospects.

Reasons for the Failure

Insufficient Offer Price: Major institutional shareholders, notably Toscafund Asset Management and Fidelity International, argued the 250p per share "final offer" was too low. They pointed out that Spire had rejected a higher offer of 300p per share in 2017.

Undervaluation of Future Prospects: Opposing shareholders believed Spire was well-positioned for a strong financial recovery post-pandemic, due to anticipated high demand for elective surgeries and a substantial NHS waiting list. They felt the bid did not reflect this potential upturn in business.

Asset Value Discrepancy: Some investors argued Spire's substantial property portfolio, valued in excess of its market capitalization, created a significant "hidden" value not reflected in Ramsay's offer.

Failure to Meet Approval Threshold: Despite the Spire board recommending the deal and the offer representing a 30% premium to the pre-offer share price, the total votes in favour fell short of the required 75% minimum threshold, receiving only about 69.9% support.

Advisory Firm Opposition: The proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis urged investors to vote against the takeover, accusing the Spire board of failing to provide sufficient comparable valuation analyses to justify their recommendation.

Following the failed bid, Spire's share price dropped, and the company confirmed it would continue as a standalone business, focusing on its existing strategy of serving both private patients and the NHS. "

My thoughts are that the board are playing this for the major shareholder mediclinic. Dragging their heels over the property valuation, unnecessary trading announcements that drive the short term share price down. By the time the full year report is due they must have revalued the property so before that Mediclinic will come in with a bid probably 30% higher than the SP, backed by the board, telling the smaller shareholders that it in their best interests to take the offer. A short term depressed SP doesn't matter to them as they'll realize the value when they take the whole business. Let's Mediclinic in at £2.50 rather than £3. So the only action for small shareholders is the buy now, average down & wait for the bid. I've just doubled my holding, averaging down to £1.98. I'll be happy with 25% on that in 2026.

Received my into my ii account dated 29th October. Done & dusted.

"Following the Cancellation, the Company's Shares will remain listed on the ASX, which will continue as the primary trading venue for its equity securities. The Company has no intention to delist its Shares from the ASX.

• The Company is providing an opportunity for each Depositary Interest ("DI") holder to become a registered shareholder on the Company's Australian share register."

So they remain listed on the ASX. If your provider manages share on the ASX they will probably transfer them automatically. If you don't want to hold shares on the ASX or your provider doesn't allow you to hold them sell before the end of the month.

It is good news. There's life in the old dog yet. The question for me is when to get out. And the answer is at the first sign of decline. Not many places you can get as god a return as this but it won't last forever. The recycling plan is flawed. They charge retails £3.50 a week regardless of volume. That will have to change. The plan relies on a high volume of clients & will fall we short of covering the decline in news sales. Every price hike by the publishers causes loss of volume & many small newsagents are on the brink. When the news business collapses & the small stores close the recycling business goes with it unless they invest heavily in a new customer base. Take what you can while you can but get yourself an exit plan. I'm in here at an average below 40p, my capital input is already recovered, every dividend now is a bonus but I still plan to get out before the shares become worthless. They've dragging it out nicely & the longer the better but it won't last forever.

Nothing much will happen here whilst the Paterson enquiry is ongoing & that could be a couple of years yet. I can't see any takeover looming until final liabilities are known. Until then it will continue to be held back. Long term hold.