Agree, however, just wonder if the c£20m market cap is acting as a bit of a ceiling until we get more news on cash and breakeven/profit position.
Revenues appear to be going well but as they say cash is king.
TP has skin down for a £250k profit in 2020 - hopefully H1 results will show if this is still on the cards.
Incidentally TP 2021 figures look very conservative IMHO - and this may be holding things back a little too
Have a look at the most recent presentation in Feb 2020. On page 5 it shows the value of obtaining a % of US market in total and as a NPV. Even a modest 5% is worth £1.2b and a NPV of over £800m. At 10% the numbers double.
cash is king? It is when you are giving oil away for free.
Well Board has wasted $50m in share buy backs and also given $50m in a divi last year - there's your $100m to repay the coupon without impacting the balance sheet
yes BTC rises, some big buys going through and yet share price lower. I did another top up as surely common sense will prevail eventually.
Do wonder if there will be a big late reported sell to justify this strange behaviour. If so, hopefully the last!!
yes agree orange.
On Shield website last presentation from Feb 2020 summarises H2H study findings.
On the bar chart at end it compares Feraccru v IV at 4 weeks 12 weeks (the study endpoint), 24, 36 and 52 weeks.
At 4 weeks feraccru was understandably lower (iv gives a significant one off iron boost every few months whereas feraccru is a tablet taken every day to slowly increase iron levels ) at 12 weeks IV is slightly higher, but not significantly, but at 24, 26 and 52 weeks feraccru out performs the IV equivalent.
So not only is feraccru checker over the longer term it is a more effective treatment.
Agree with your post re company other than debt pile comment. There is little debt - most of the £15m spent on hardware has come from cash.
BTC price currently rising - now $9,100 - hopefully this will help the share price if we can get rid of this bloody seller!
how do you socially distance at wagamama's ? Bench seating all close together will make this very complex and revenues will be significantly down.
Not feeling over confident with 4th July opening date too - R rate is not going down.
Let's see how next few weeks pan out - today's rise seem a little exaggerated IMHO
agreed can't blame Dan for Covid, but it has taken him over 2 months to mention this, which IMHO is disappointing.
With Chinese non payment , with a complete u turn on earlier legal advice, i suspect he knew this would tank unless he gave us some good news, hence the delay.
IMHO this is not a great RNS but this share has far more upside than down so i continue to hold
2 points Moni - when fundraising rounds started share price was c11p so CF couldn't raise placing price after it had been set.
Also re test revenue. FinnCap are a paid for broker, they would have spoken to CF before coming up with revenue estimates etc.
Whilst i agree they are conservative figures they may not be a million miles away from actual too
I am amazed at how STX is underplaying the results from the H2H study. See below
The issue is that the 12 week end point included the ITT group in addition to PP. ITT are those who dropped out during the 12 week period so clearly would have lower iron levels than those who completed the full 12 weeks. These people should never have been included - of the PP population the iron levels were consistent at 12 weeks with those who were given the IV injection.
Additionally after 12 weeks another 40 weeks was administered, so 52 weeks in total, and these results were very good too.
So in 1 year how many IV injection hospital visits would be required? This is the Feraccru USP
During 2019 the results of the AEGIS-H2H clinical study became available although the Group announced in March 2020 that it had initiated a review of the analysis of the data which is currently ongoing. This study compared Feraccru® to Ferinject®, the market-leading intravenously-delivered iron replacement therapy. The AEGIS-H2H study was a multi-national Phase IIIb randomised, active-controlled trial in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients with iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) and whose haemoglobin (Hb) measurements were as low as 8.0g/dL. The objective of the study was to assess whether the effect of Feraccru® on Hb response (defined by the protocol as normalisation of Hb or a >2g/dL rise in Hb from baseline) was comparable to the effect seen with IV treatment at 12 weeks. This was followed by a 40-week extension phase, during which eligible subjects continued treatment with Feraccru® or received IV therapy in line with clinical need. The key findings of the study were:
· The study did not meet its overall primary end point of non-inferiority at twelve weeks because this was clearly not achieved in the "intention to treat" (ITT) population, although there was a high response rate;
· IDA re-occurred at least once in approximately 39% (49) of the subjects in the IV arm of the study following the initial treatment with IV therapy, requiring a total of 69 additional IV iron infusions to be administered; and
· Feraccru®/Accrufer® was effective and generally well tolerated over 52 weeks of treatment with a side effect profile consistent to that seen in previous placebo-controlled studies.
The positive long term data provides further evidence to support results of earlier clinical studies that Feraccru® is effective and well tolerated over 52 weeks, even in patients who have been unable to tolerate oral iron salts previously. It also shows that Feraccru® is a real oral alternative to IV iron for patients with IDA and it can prevent the need for repeated IV infusions. The outcome of this study is therefore very helpful for health economics evaluations and will also be beneficial in pricing and reimbursement negotiations in countries around the world as it will help to justify attractive pricing. The results of the ongoing review of the data analysis will
From annual report - see below.
Teva appeal is only in relation to European patents. US, China and Japan are unaffected.
Appeal for 23/6 has been postponed.
This will not impact US deal, as some have suggested.
Intellectual Property (IP)
We continue to work on strengthening our intellectual property, including patents. During 2019, both the US and Japanese patent offices have allowed a "treatment use" patent protecting Feraccru® until January 2035. This application (entitled "Dosage regimen of ferric trimaltol") allowed claims relating to the administration of Feraccru® twice-daily on an empty stomach, where the percentage of ferric trimaltol is at least 60% of the combined weight of ferric trimaltol and excipients. More recently, in April 2020, the Chinese Patent Office has allowed our composition of matter patent.
We also continue to defend our patents robustly. As previously reported Teva has raised objections with the European Patent Office (EPO) to the Group's patents (#2 668 175 and # 3 160 951) which cover "Process for preparing an iron hydroxypyrone" and "Crystalline forms of ferric maltol" respectively. On 14 March 2019 the Opposition Division of the European Patent Office (EPO) decided in favour of Shield in respect of the former patent as amended. However, as anticipated, in June 2019 Shield received notice that Teva has filed a notice of appeal to the EPO's decision. Currently no date has been set for the appeal hearing. The EPO had set a date of 23 June 2020 for the oral hearing in respect of patent # 3 160 951951 but this has now been postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic.
I remember last year ex CEO intimated that target was a US deal before end of 2019.
I suspect he walked away from a potential deal and this option is now dead.
The Chinese deal soon after was a decent one and this bought both him and STX some time but the H2H debacle was the final straw for one or two of our large shareholders and he was moved on. Why else leave?
The fact that CS is staying on to assist with a US deal IMHO indicates there hasn't been any personality clashes with potential US partners etc, i suspect CS as founder of company maybe wanted the perfect deal or didn't want his role being diluted. Who knows?
New CEO is a no frills accountant - maybe that is what we need in the circumstances. He has worked closely with new chairman so that is a positive IMHO. Also other companies have stated that COVID has assisted deal making a little as it is easier to get hold of people etc. So hopefully a deal is not too far away. IMHO a good deal is better than no deal.
Just a idea - current market cap is c£115m. Finn Cap are stating US deal could be worth $50m upfront and $100m in milestones and royalties. That's c£120m in total.
Obviously a company would need to pay a big premium to buy STX but it does show we are undervalued and it is possible that discussions could include a takeover
unfortunately directors (or senior managers - Peter Wall was not a director last year but still earned over £200k) do not need to buy as they have generous share options at 7p.
Agree re takeover potential - net assets are over 50% higher than current market value.
3 things to move this up are:
1. decent May update will reassure post halving
2. Half year results should show a decent profit and hopefully that costs are under control
3. Clearly BTC price - above $10k will improve sentiment IMHO
yes, good progress is being made. However, no mention of revenue in any of these updates. A % increase in advertising revenue would be a good start.
Until finances are know upside will be limited IMHO
with all non food retail so severely impacted due to covid i think this update is about as positive as can be expected.
DTC going well and revenue should at least be same as last year (£12.9m).
Suspect profit will be down a little due to investment in nuthing and Roots etc but this is still a pretty good outcome.
Some LTH were suggesting revenues being £10m plus for 2020. Well almost 13m is clearly a lot better than that