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Agree - results have been consistently good, however, this has not translated into SP increases.
Results for the 12 months (financial year is being moved to end of March, so 15 months this period) will be in March, so hopefully in the next 2 weeks.
As per the Jan TU RNS
"The Company will publish an interim report for the 12 months to 31 December 2023 in March 2024, and audited financial statements for the 15 months to 31 March 2024 during the summer."
A very low valuation Jolly.
How about 10 x EBITDA - c£1m p.a so £10m.
Plus almost £2m cash
Plus over £5m to come - discounted by 20%.
SP c£16m valuation - c 116p a share.
A good finish yesterday and also start to today. A c20% rise over this period hopefully is more than just down to low volumes etc
Nipped into the Beckenham High St Card shop on Friday and was pleased it was quite busy - then remembered it's was a couple of days before Mothers Day!
The best thing was that many people were buying items in addition to the cards. Candles, chocolates and balloons etc. Guessing these all have a higher margin.
I did see the sweets - quite a small display of Haribos etc, but a decent addition for impulse buying etc
Avoid a binary cliff!!
Forgot to say the big positive for me today was the answer to the question regarding the deferred consideration from the EM deal which was quoted at c£8m to £10m. The answer was quite comprehensive and they were keen to ensure a 'binary cliff' i.e. you only get a payment is a specific target is achieved. The amount quote is a "very achievable expectation", with upside also built in.
Yes agree, 90 plus.
In Jan RNS we were told the new business margin in H2 exceeded the 8.5% they achieved in H1. New business profits in H1 were excellent so if this volume has continued into H2 with a higher margin then the reported profit should be impressive.
H1 excerpt is below..
Retirement Income sales2 have more than doubled to £1.9bn (H1 22: £0.9bn), which has driven a 112% increase in new business profits to £161m (H1 22: £76m), with a consistently strong new business margin of 8.5% (H1 22: 8.6%).
Yes, have to agree a little underwhelming.
Very high level with no specific examples e.g. we are now dealing with company X for a deal worth £10m over 5 years which wouldn't have been possible 6 months ago etc.
Clearly lead time for deals is long so they don't want to make any solid growth projections (and couldn't release any market sensitive info) but surely they must know we want a bit more detail as to how the £17m will be spent.
For example if cash is to be c£10m at YE, as was stated, how will the £7m be spent and how much revenue and profit should this investment generate.
Was it me or did CEO look a bit bored and uninterested. If the CEO can't be enthusiastic regarding his own companies prospects then some investors will wonder why they are invested.
SP does look undervalued, however, can't see any short term catalyst based on that presentation
Hopefully the BOD can explain their plans for the driving growth etc over the next year or so. As CEO and CFO are gaining c£500k between them in bonuses for the recent sale they need to show us they are worth this money.
Wow, almost £200k trade at 8.41 today. Pretty sure that's a buy. Bodes well for tomorrow
Yes surprised no TU for YE, but results should be out in April and should be well ahead of last year. As has been said if there was anything untoward it would have to be released.
Feels very undervalued at these levels - growing profits, lots of cash and now dividend paying. What's not to like?
CRL don't usually provide trading updates, but with the SP going nowhere it might be helpful if they gave us some guidance either just before or after the YE. H1 reported in Dec wasn't too bad considering and a small profit was reported. Hopefully supply chain and inflationary pressures have eased in H2 so trading should have improved.
CRL do seem to manage costs quite well so any revenue increase should flow to the bottom line.
Well the source was the TU RNS back in Jan, which stated the 7th. Clearly this was always a provisional date but it has never been corrected by the company.
Not long to wait regardless and hopefully good news to report
Asa - agree no chance of a bid until the liability is known. Not sure a rights issue will be required though
Unfortunately today's RNS essentially says they will run out of cash in the next few months, despite the CEOs positivity.
See excerpt below..
Consequentially, the Company expects to report revenues for the year ending 30 April 2024 in the range of approximately £2.8m-£3.0m, with a corresponding adj. EBITDA loss of between approximately £2.6m-£2.8m. Cash and cash equivalents as at 29 February 2024 were approximately £800k. The Board continues to closely monitor cash to ensure that the Company has sufficient resources to execute its growth strategy. Cash burn and customer acquisition cost are expected to reduce as the Company converts its pipeline in the coming weeks and the Company is seeking to improve contract payment terms to include upfront payments.
Agree with everything you say - other than results should be on the 7th!
H2 margin was great than the 8.5% achieved in H1 (as per Jan RNS) so i'm expecting really good numbers. Hopefully the SP will be nearer 100p when the news is digested
I think today's results are quite poor. At 12 months (to 30/6/23) we had revs of £33m and EBITDA of £4.7m. So in the extra 6 months of the year( as accounting period was adjusted to 18 months) we have an extra £13m of rev and only c£500k in EBITDA.
However, we know that interest is over £500k per 6 months so essentially they have made a small loss for the last 6 months.
I suspect they were distracted by the EM div sell.
To blame it on the financial constraints is a bit of a cop out as this was the same in the previous 12 months, where performance was good.
Anyway, the SP is still cheap, the balance sheet is massively improved and now we have the funding to go after large public sector contracts. Hopefully will be transformational for EAAS.
Yes re-reading the £8m to £10m extra, payable over the next 18 months or so (to Sept 2025) there is an max upside of £20m , so i think the £8 to £10m is both realistic and achievable. Part of it is linked to each meter installation so they will know what these numbers have been over the last year or so.
However, this extra income has not been factored into the SP at all
Frankie - the initial milestone payment was for $5m , so c£4.4m. Although it was received in late 2022 only £700k was recognised in the 2022 accounts (as per the YE accounts RNS in April 2023). The remaining amount was fully recognised in H1 2023 as shown in the 1/2 year accounts (RNS sept 2023). So there will be nothing in Q3 2023 onwards. Who knows the breakdown between Q1 and Q2 - let's assume a straight line.
Other Viatris milestone payments are only due when sales reach $100m p.a - we are miles off this for at least a couple of years.
Therefore, IMHO both the revenue and the cash levels required as per the convenant will come to ahead early Q2 2024.
The RNS says results were in the lower end of expectations, not that they were missed. As this YE is a 18 month period rather than 12 due to the accounting date change and the first 12 months have already been published and were good i don't think an 'average' 6 months will be too problematic.
Similarly if you say you expect to publish results in a 2 week window, not to hit that date range is a little disappointing.
The didn't sell the Mgmt Div because it was performing poorly, quite the reverse. They have expanded aggressively over the last few years and faced cashflow issues. The £5m funding was fully used and required repayment (or refinancing) in Feb 2024. The expensive £2.5m loan required repaying in May-July 2024.
There were approaches for this business and no doubt the BOD felt this was the best solution to resolve the cash issues, improve the balance sheet and ultimately add value.
As we now have £25m in the bank that c6.5p a share so this should reduce any SP downside.
Yes, £8m of this has been used to repay debt but this was costing over £1m a year in interest, so that £1m saving can now go straight onto the profit line.