The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
Despite getting £25m cash it appears this won't really get moving until the YE numbers are announced - 2nd half of Feb.
As part of the EM sale RNS it was mentioned that YE trading was at the lower end of expectations. This seems to have spooked a few. I'm unsure what these expectations were. This YE is 18 months as the accounting period is being changed/extended. The 12 month figures were quite good and the outlook for YE, so the final 6 months is below.
All seemed quite positive in Sept when this was released.
Outlook
Energy remains high on the agenda across the UK, and we continue to see strong appetite from new and existing customers for our suite of products and services.
Post period end, the Company secured a significant contract with a Total Contract Value ("TCV") of £3.0 million, resulting in £1.9 million revenues, from existing customer Tudor Grange Academies Trust, for a solar energy generation project across its collection of academies. This illustrates the Company's ability to execute against its cross selling strategy within its existing customer base.
Whilst market conditions tightened over the summer period, eEnergy's contracted revenue book remains significant, giving strong visibility on revenues for the final six months of the financial period. Contracted forward revenues (the "Forward Order Book") at 30 June 2023 were £27.5 million (31 December 2022: £26.4 million), of which £14.1 million are expected to convert into revenues in the six months to 31 December 2023.
The Group remains confident that eEnergy's proposition is more relevant than ever, further supported by a continued shift in regulatory and structural growth drivers. The Group remains cautiously optimistic of delivering results for the 18 month period ending 31 December 2023 in line with market expectations.
RNS out. All approved. £25m hitting the bank account ASAP
With the GM tomorrow it should be an interesting day.
Even with the SP rise over the last week the company valuation is currently bang on £30m. Obviously when the £30m sale is ratified, EAAS gets an immediate £25m of cash.
So is the rest of the business (£19m rev p.a , 87% growth) worth just £5m??
Even at 10p the market cap would be £38.7m, which seems quite conservative IMHO.
No Traa, these are small, simple acquisitions and they have said they are targeting smaller companies where the directors are close to retirement.
Essentially they will be cash deals and paid upfront - as has been the case with the last few acquisitions.
Maybe (re)listen to the last investor meets presentation.
Do you mean no mention of cash in the TU? It is rare to mention cash in a TU and quite frankly it is not required. Cash was £3.2m on 31/12/22 and £3.7m on 30/6/23, despite a number of new stores being opened in the period. In the 6 months since we have record revenues and increased margins. The number of new stores/bars has slowed so IMHO cash is in a good place.
Usually cash is only mentioned in a TU if there is a potential concern/to reassure and it would appear there is no concern ATM.
I think you are looking for a negative when there isn't one
Yes BOD options exercise prices are well above the current SP and the current broker valuation is c13p a share so there is much upside. Hopefully we should see 8p prior to the EGM and 9p plus afterwards as it appears until the sell is finalised the SP won't reflect true value and/or any increase is being sold into as people with c5p shares are taking some profit.
I will be disappointed if they miss their own guidance as it was only adjusted down late last year. However, as long as growth is impressive e.g. 50% quarterly increase, we are clearly moving in the right direction.
Q4 did contain both Thanks Giving and Christmas so that could have had some impact.
Had to start rising eventually as we approach the 7th Feb. Anything below 7.8p (£30m valuation) still seems a very low purchase price IMHO
It was yesterday, early afternoon. I got lucky - tried to buy a larger amount but insufficient stock so bought 100k and within seconds price had risen to 6.28. I have been buying (again) when the price dropped below 7 and when overall valuation dropped to c£23m yesterday thought i'd load up, as a trade. After all we will get £25m cash in less than 2 weeks.
Hopefully this should slowly start rising back to 8p minimum as the recent SP action has been massively overdone IMHO.
Really good numbers throughout - increasing revenues, margins and of course cash (despite the idiot claiming we were burning cash).
Mo, as we know, is doing the opposite of CF and is letting the numbers do the talking, so not sure how anyone can claim this is being hyped.
Maybe the recent SP rise is simply due to all the 2024 share tips accompanying some recent really good RNSs having a positive impact .
MO. The options are clearly there to 'protect' the CEO id/when the company is sold , which is CF's plan.
I can imagine the conversation Mo - why should i become CEO if you sell it within a couple of years?
CF - ok fair play. I do want it sold, but don't know when. To give you some protection here are a generous option package. You get them if the business/shares performed well and/OR if it gets sold.
Please note, 1% share options can be both generous to an individual and insignificant to the company as a whole
For info.
£25m valuation (the cash we will receive) is c6.5p a share
£30m valuation - the total value of the offer for the Management Div is c7.8p a share
£40m - valuing the Services Div at only £10m - 10.3p
£45m valuation - the total valuation based on the EBITDA multiple used for Mgmt div - 11.6p a share
Just bought another 100k at 6.1p. Surely a no brainer
Yes a solid, if slightly unspectacular, trading update.
It does appear that acquisition will be required to drive revenue growth and so the piecemeal payment agreement for Vigilante will mean that cash will limit the size and frequency of these. However, the one announced a few weeks ago looks a good fit at a sensible price.
Just to add to comments, with the current value now at less than £24m and with £25m to be deposited in c2 weeks the current SP is very undervalued.
With AIM shares i have noticed that people pile into a share and leave the moment news drops, however, on the whole this was never over hyped.
Although this did open a 9.75 when the RNS was released it fell almost immediately and has continued falling since.
Let's be honest if you conservatively valued the services division at say £10m and with the £25m cash (so ignoring the debt being repaid and the extra money linked to performance) the £35m valuation is over 9p a share - 45% higher than the current SP.
So where do we go from here?
I think clearly the sale needs to be ratified. Accompanying this the BOD need to show they have a sensible plan . Previously whilst they have shown they can grow revenues, profits and cash management have not been as well managed.
I still think a small special divi would be well received. 1p is less than £4m and is well over 15% return
One other thing to consider. With issues with post office deliveries this will have less impact on Card than online alternatives as many of our cards are not posted.
If i was Moonpig i would be far more concerned
I particularly liked this comment in the YE trading update. SP reaction is unfortunately somewhat muted despite fantastic numbers and expected operating profit growth.
"Our successes in 2023 and positioning in buoyant markets give us increased confidence in our prospects for 2024. These strong foundations enable us to continue delivering 15% growth in underlying operating profit per annum, on average over the medium term."
Really good numbers. I particularly liked the final comment
"· Continued positive trading momentum throughout December 2023 gives significant confidence that full year trading will be at least in line with Board expectations".
Hopefully a RNS will drop tomorrow. Maybe the SP has risen a little in anticipation.
With c£30m in the bank all year this alone should have earned a decent amount of interest (keep £10m available and get the extra £20m earning a higher rate) - over £1m? - to add to the bottom line
Agree. The Feb divi will be a bumper one to get us to 10p this year , so 3.43p by my calculations, and then 2.5p a quarter thereafter.
With the share buyback, inflation (mainly) falling vs the dividend increasing, and the NPV much higher than the SP i thought this would be steadily rising .
Happy to hold and top up as and when possible
The SP seems to be getting a bit silly now. At c6.5p the whole company including the part that we're selling for £30m is valued at £26m,
Anyway, i've re-checked old RNSs and the bonds/loans taken out in late 2022 that are to be repaid in May/June 2024 can be repaid early without penalty so that is good and should save us a bit as this interest rate is high.
Attached to the bonds are warrants at an exercise price of 6p (42m of them so potentially an extra c11% of shares).
Some of the selling could be in anticipation of exercising their warrants at a lower price .
Clearly paying off the £8m debt is sensible as it will save over £1m in interest p.a and will improve the bottom line immediately ( £1m at 10 x PE could be worth the equivalent of £10m to our valuation). However, it appears people are now waiting to see how this money will be used to expand the business. Energy Services is definitely a hot and fast growing area.
I am not expecting it but a special divi of say 1p would cost less than £4m.