Member Info for shandypants2

https://www.**********.com/articles/small-cap-investing-with-paul-hill-and-paul-scott-e5757fe

good discussion on stx at 31 minutes. essentially a good company but a terribly worded rns. interesting that paul hill says recurring revenues is c20 to 25% (although this has never formally been announced) .

seems that all the bad news is now priced in so cheap at these levels (who would have thought!).

just noticed someone has bought 9k at 218p so share should start ticking up.

Now we are getting towards the back end of January hopefully we will get some updates re progress and timelines in the next few days.

I'm hoping a reasonable timescales e.g. court date in March, completion in April etc, should see a decent tick up

A number of companies report on potential pipeline opportunities i.e. potential new contracts which have not been finalised.

SNX does not and i am not aware they ever have, although it is often a good way for investors to see the potential upstream revenues.

I noted that Journeo (yes, them again) do report this figure. In their interims revenues were flat but the pipeline had increased quite substantially so the update was reasonably well received and they have maintained a decent PE valuation.

Compare this to SNX who dropped c1/3 since announcing record and exceeding market expectation profits.

Via the IR link on their website i did ask SNX this question a few months ago a few months after the new broker was announced. I was told they had no control over this, which i thought was a very poor response. I did point out to them that they did pay the broker so they do actually have some control over this.

I do think the messaging from SNX is very poor. I mentioned Journeo yesterday as a good company to compare against SNX. They have c£50m rev but have announced they aim to get to £100m in the longer term and have recently used some of their cash pile to make an acquisition. Both have been well received by the market and they sit on a PE of over 17. SNX sits on less than half that and of course this is based on 2024 profits as 2025 have not yet been officially released, although we know they are c25% higher.

I'm hoping a contract or two can be announced in the next month or so and then a more positive update in March, highlighting some of many good things they are doing rather than the obvious negative that 2026 numbers will be lower than 2025 (if they are slightly higher than 2024 i'll be reasonably happy).

Compare this valuation with say Boom, the podcast company that has just announced $5m 'record' EBITDA and is valued at £128m.

Journeo which provides the technology for information boards at train and bus stations etc (a good company to compare with SNX but slightly more recurring rev) has a company valuation of £86m on £50m rev and £5m profit.

So SNX has higher profits than both and is currently valued at £32m.

Agree - there must be a background seller which combined with a few potential issues going forward (change in strategy and lower order book etc despite market beating profits) has created the perfect storm.

Currently the EV is £18m as we have £14m cash - madness for a company that has just made £6m profit.

Still think this is worth a min £3 based on 2024 profit plus cash.

Torug - the important word you've mentioned is COULD take 6 months -well 5 1/2 now.

This is based on the end of H1 2026 timeline. As i have suggested a few times if it was to be near the end of the period they could have used Q2 as a guide rather than the vaguer H1 period.

I suspect the movement this week was merely because the market has finally realised the risk/reward was too generous.

Once we get a timeline and potential court date (I'm expecting March/April BTW) i can see this ticking up by 1p and then after the court approval, assuming this goes through, another 1p.

At high 28s this will leave c 5% as the opportunity cost of holding the money.

IMHO this is the time to potentially take your money and use it elsewhere. With the overly high US market and the potential for wars across a number of fronts this seems quite a safe place to leave things for now.

For those wishing to trade this there is still a 13% uplift (at 26.5p), however, i suspect the 25% available last week is now long gone.

Captain - it didn't get to 27p yesterday, and definitely not for selling , the day you said you sold out. You did well if you got near 26.5p. There may be a few minor ups and downs but the direction of travel is pretty clear now, i can't see it doing under 25p again. Once a court date is announced this should be 27p min.

Maybe you are being a bit negative as you sold out too early and trying to justify it to yourself .

Captain - 26p , the current price, is 15%.

Selling out for a trade at c26p is slightly bizarre, unless you wanted the money to invest elsewhere. I doubt you're get the opportunity to get back in now.

I'm with RunS - moved loads out of gilts to invest here in the 23s as 25% for less than 6 months was too good an opportunity to pass on.

Wind and green electricity is definitely not dead.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn9zyx150xdo

Well almost - up 3%

No mention of EBITDA in this update, which is disappointing. This was a small EBITDA loss in H1 so when breakeven is mentioned is this just for H2 or for full year?

Similarly EBITDA is not profit.

The guidance for PBT is mid term - what is that? 3 to 5 years?

Well in H1 EBITDA was £24m and operating loss was (£30m) with overall loss (£66.1).

Even doubling EBITDA in H2 will not offset the £30m needed to breakeven at an operating level, which is surely the minimum expectation.

Regarding store sales most shops expect to make a 100% market up - so if they sell for £20m they will buy for £10, maybe £12 tops.

As the gross margin reported is less than 50% on overall sales it shows how tight this is for THG.

Siouks - i did say there is still a big gap in the market for opti products but it is clearly not filling it and it's been 10 years now.

Clearly the fat jabs aren't cheap and have massive side effects, but ultimately most people are lazy and will take the easy option.

Marketing costs money - something opti doesn't have. The fact that H&B seem to be phasing out Slimbiome speaks volumes IMHO.

BTW i'm 56 and weigh the same as i did at 18 - i eat sensibly and exercise, so not an issue for me. Not everyone invested in opti is fat.

Agree it will happen when it happens, but some guidance would be nice. Thinking is between say late Feb and late June - that's a large 4 month gap.

Once this is know a 5% deal risk discount plus similar for opportunity cost should get this above 27p.

Good news yes, but it is 22 bars only , so i suspect the revenue impact will be quite low.

I've been in and out of opti for about 10 years and currently out.

I like the products and potential but the slow pace of market penetration has been incredibly disappointing. Now we have fat jabs (for good or bad) perhaps we have now missed the boat, despite there still being a big gap in the market.

For me we need c 5 times annual revenues of c£5m to breakeven (based on 50% gross margin and current admin spend). We seem light years away from this, so i will continue to watch from the side lines. Recently was in H&B and could not see any Opti products - surely a terrible sign.

FFS this SP is painful. So much bad news priced in and all the positives overlooked.

Facial recognition appears to be the way forward and SNX are right in this space. This will improve the revenue mix as the recurring licencing revenues will increase accordingly.

https://www.biometricupdate.com/202501/synectics-launching-facial-recognition-feature-and-expanding-footprint

Sorry, last post tonight.

i think this is the GB Energy solar scheme that EAAS are supporting. Hopefully more schools will follow

https://www.gbe.gov.uk/blog/schools-across-england-cut-bills-great-british-energy-solar-panels

Incidentally it mentions Inspired Energy being sold for c 10 x EBITDA , which is my yardstick valuation for EAAS too.

Doing some googling Inspired was sold in Aug 2025 for £183.6m. It's 2024 accounts had revenues of £93m, EBITDA of £23m and PBT of £11.8m.

It did also have £59m of debt too, and following EMDs sale EAAS is almost debt free.

Based on PBT PE that's a 15 times multiple valuation.

I think EAAS is aiming for c£3m PBT in 2026. So this would equate to a valuation of c£45m or 12p a share.