Member Info for shandypants2

Yes a very long road.

I topped up recently in the hope that with FDA approval i might get out at breakeven overall.

Some US posters reckon once FDA approved this could be snapped up for c$250m - 5 times the current price.

It might be because Dowgate Wealth has recently taken a position of EAAS in its Onwards Opportunities fund - write up below highlighted its low valuation vs peers

e-Energy is a UK energy services integrator focused mainly on

education and healthcare buildings. It designs and delivers LED

lighting upgrades, on-site solar PV, and EV charging—and crucially

offers capital-free funding so customers can proceed with no upfront

cost (energy-as-a-Service). This capital is NOT provided by e-Energy

but by funding partners (Natwest & Redaptive who between them

offer £150m of funding capacity for projects). Following strategic

errors and contract delays, the business trades on 4.0x EV/EBITDA

even though its 2026 forecast is for one of its largest profit figures

ever of £4.5m EBITDA. This offers value to Onward as investors in

the context of its 14% margins and clear public sector tailwind for

energy efficiency projects. e-Energy recently won its largest ever

contract for the education sector. Indeed we believe the business has

a covetable public sector market position and that this route to market

currently trades at a material discount to recent transactions such as

the takeout of inspired energy at around 10x EBITDA.

Yep reaction was a bit subdued as this is game changing news. Clearly ££ generated will push this above 0.5p and possibly 1p but things are clearly progressing at pace

FDA approval/response is usually after 6 months so hopefully will be in Q1 this year. This extract taken from a US poster (not me) but of interest

There's never a guarantee when it comes biotech. Luckily we can make good predictions. I've done deep DD for MDAI and came to the conclusion that it's 80-90% sure to get FDA approval.

It's a non intrusive diagnostic tool. Unlike medication there is much less risk for the patient. Therefore more likely to get approved.

The studies showed VERY good results. Spectral AI's research partners, RCSI SWaT Research Center and RCSI Connolly Hospital, won the Best Research Project award for their Diabetic Foot Ulcers project using the DeepView System. Which shows a potential broadening of their TAM to diabetic foot ulcers as for now it's only focused on burn wounds.

There are diagnostic tools that use AI that have been approved by the FDA. For example: DermaSensor. I will not go into the results and compare them to spectral ai as this post will get too long. But the bottomline is that it makes it clear that the FDA is willing to accept a significant trade-off between sensitivity and specificity, provided that the clinical benefit of avoiding missed diagnoses (high sensitivity) outweighs the risk of false positives (low specificity).

They're working on a handheld version for the millitairy as we speak.

Barda financing (will not go into this deeper as it's quite obvious and easy to research)

It fastens the diagnosis proces for burn wounds by a few days.

Burn beds are some of the most expensive beds in the hospital. This makes it very cost winning for hospitals (they're still businesses at their core)

Better results than burn specialists in diagnosing which parts of the burn tissue heals and which parts will not. But the good part is they're not made to replace the specialist; they're to support them. Best of both worlds.

Easy to use and easy to move; practical in use. Also for non doctors.

Gives clear binary output to show which parts of the tissue will heal on its own and which needs surgery - Diagnosis will get better over time as it gets fed more data.

???

Not sure what calendar you use but i definitely meant 30th June, which is both the last day of H1 from a standard calendar and the WG accounts perspective

Surely what we need a is a timetable of steps required to complete the takeover.

The SP is flatlining as there is no clarity regarding when/if the Court will formally sanction the Scheme of Arrangement.

Once this is completed approval is needed from various antitrust and other regulatory authorities.

All we know it is in H1 2026, so from now until 30/6/26.

If we get a schedule, even with caveats, showing an expected completion in say March/April i think the SP will have a decent tick up (mind you i thought the same once the Sidara money was released).

Jim if it was definitely April to June they could have said Q2 2026. They did not. I suspect the H1 is to ensure there is suitable contingency built in. Aim for Q1 but if it slips Q2 is ok etc.

I'm going for March

That 100k was mine - bought via HL, taking my total holdings to over 500k shares.

These prices are just too low - upside is too good and risk is low IMHO, less than 5%.

Hopefully early Jan we can see some progress re court dates etc

Just re-read the YE trading RNS and previous ones going back a few years i think the SP reaction has been massively over done.

Firstly the company need to start blowing it's own trumpet a bit and wording is important. So when YE PBT is £6m and you've guided £5.3m that's a 13% uplift so is clearly an exceeded expectation performance. This should have been stated in the introduction but wasn't mentioned anywhere.

The negative reaction is because the one off 2025 revenue was emphasised, the order book has declined and there is no 2026 guidance.

Let's look at all three of these points - all of which are valid BTW.

The large contract appears to be the $10m one that was RNSed in June 2024. Yes it is a one off but it is with an existing client of over 10 years, so there is a strong chance of other large contracts arising in future years.

The order book at the end of 2024 was clearly inflated by the above contract. In 2023 the order book was £29m and in 2025 it is £26.5m. Yes it is slightly lower but not by a massive amount. No need to panic.

Whilst 2026 guidance would be nice this was not provided this time last year so again no need to panic.

If we go back to 2024 performance the rev was £55m , PBT £4.7m and PAT of £3.7m.

If we use this as a guide for 2026 then that's a PE of c10 and ignores the £14m in cash. If this was added on a £51m valuation is just over £3 a share, a c35% uplift from here.

This PE is very conservative - the FTSE 100 is currently c16 and historically is c12.

So in summary SNX which was never valued as a growth stock despite very impressive growth over the last 2 or 3 years, but is now being punished for 'probably' not growing in 2026.

SNX is a small company and can/will be impacted by the timing and contracts and one-off large contracts. IMHO as long as the direction of travel is positive, which i think it is based on the number , size and variety of contracts being won then i'm happy to hold.

Incidentally Marina Bay Sands in Singapore is building a 4th tower,, which will take 5 years. SNX does the surveillance for the existing 3 towers and casinos. So it is very probable that in a year or two a large contract will drop for providing the surveillance for this tower.

Well a valuation of £38m would be c 10p a share.

If 2026 numbers re hit that's c£34m rev and over £4m EBITDA. As a growing company in a high profile and growing market a PE of 15 would not be unreasonable (or 10 x EBITDA). For comparison the FTSE 100 is usually c12 x PE but with the recent rise is about 16. So that would be a £40m valuation

Fund manager talks about SNX yesterday. Says it's bargain territory now (at 290p) and can see it getting to £6 in 5 years - based on profits increasing 50% in that time and PE increasing from c9 to 15.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqNf4nHE6fw

A good trading update - with PBT increased from the Oct RNS to £6m (and forecast £5.3m) that is over 10% so should be stated as above expectations.

Clearly there are concerns with growth for 2026 as 2025 included £12m of one off revenues, and no forecast has been provided.

However, with over £14m cash that gives an EV for SNX of c£25m. Madness. Even if in 2026 revenues slipped to say £60m and PBT was £5m that's a PE of less than 10.

I've topped up twice at 245 and 238 this morning.

Yesterday's RNS was disappointing IMHO, although not a disaster. Essentially some work and contracts anticipated to be completed/signed in late 2025 will now roll over into early 2026.

However, only last month we were told take YE expectations would be met unless there was adverse weather now we are being told

"This is as a result of delays in the installation phases of existing signed contracts together with a number of anticipated significant investment grade contract signings being pushed in to early 2026, which will now result in the revenue not being recognised until FY2026".

So we were reliant on a few contracts being signed in 2025 and they have been slightly delayed. It is important we get clear and accurate RNSs and arguably the Nov one was not. The £4m to £5m miss is reasonably substantial and must have been a concern this time last month when the RNS was released.

So YE 25 was meant to be £28m rev and i think £2.5m to £3m EBITDA. YE 26 was i think £30m and £4m EBITDA.

Now it is c£24m and less than £2m EBITDA and the missed part is moved to YE26 numbers.

I do think 2026 numbers were already reasonably conservative so i remain of this opinion. We also have the GB Energy contract in Q1 2026 which is a higher margin but longer payment terms (hence the short term loan being arranged) which is no doubt why H1 2026 is estimated at £20m revenue (100% more than H1 2025).

So all in all we must accept that as a small company the odd contract delay can impact numbers (a 2025 to 2026 delay could essentially be 1 or 2 weeks) but the overall direction of travel must be positive and growing. I think undoubtedly EAAS is moving in the right direction.

Agree with the analysis and the 3 points mentioned. IMHO they are all a 5% risk (possibly less), with the 5% for the delay being the opportunity cost (so 10% p.a), so 15% in total. Currently there is a 25% uplift (24p to 30p) so i also remain a buyer

Agree JMUK - below is the outlook comment made on 16/9, almost half way through H2. Yes, some caveats but no way a warning of issues ahead. Similarly, the buyback albeit in low volumes, was ridiculous given concerns with the economy.

"The Board expects a stronger second half, with full-year performance anticipated to be in line with expectations. That said, much remains to be achieved to deliver that outcome. Transformation is not a smooth or linear process; there will inevitably be challenges along the way. We must navigate increased costs, the short-term impact of investing ahead of revenue growth, and a higher burden from taxation all at a time of flatlining in the UK economy."

Definitely use the filter - i did it for him a few years ago and it makes me smile when i see a few green filter boxes (he posts in bulk and then goes away for a few weeks before returning with the same cut and paste comments).

On the left menu under share chat just use the filter option.

Back to HVO. When it recently went below 5p i thought this was madness but delayed buying. Clearly the global pharma market is up in the air, but Trump won't be around for ever (hopefully a heart attack) and this is a good business. The buying from the CEO and CFO is a very positive sign IMHO.

Loads of filtered green boxes on my chat - someone (you know who) is busy. The filter feature is fantastic - i suggest others do likewise.

Back to WG - now the GM is out of the way can the BOD get a more detailed sales timeline published, even if it has a few caveats. End of H1 is being interpreted as 30/6/26. I'm more positive and think March or April is very achievable. The announcement could have said Q2 rather than H1 if an earlier completion wasn't possible.

Those high whey powder prices must be impacting the whole industry and massively reducing profits - oh hold on, it appears it's just THG.

Admin costs were supposedly 25% according to H1 notes, by my calculations i make it over 30%. Complete madness.

Surely, for a mainly online business it should be nearer 10%. But all those high cost offices (owned by the CEO) and thousands of influencers need to be paid for (even if it's only in free products for some).

Let's hope so but based on H1 2025 results there is still much to do.

H1 reported total revenues of £783m, a G.profit of £321m but with distribution costs of £104m and massive admin costs of £247m that resulted in an operating loss of £30m. Adding on finance costs and the total loss of £66m.

H2 should be better and finance costs will be reduced but i'd still expect an overall loss for YE25.

So essentially if i go to a THG website and buy £78 of goods, the cost of this is £45, the distribution £10 and the admin £25. Finance costs are £4 generating an overall loss of £6. Madness

Can i suggest people use the filter option to avoid reading comments from specific members.

Go to 'share chat' on the LHS menu and on filter type in the username you wish to filter. I rarely do this , but have added you know who recently and this board is so much better since.

Let's get back to WG and seeing progress on the sale ASAP - whilst it remains below 24p i'm still buying as it's over 25% upside.