Yes, we did have a hot Sept, but only for 1 week at the beginning, not the whole month.
Also, the WFH on Friday is being used regularly now too.
Watch out for the train strike excuse in Dec although it will actually only impact 1 of the weekends in the lead up to xmas.
Maybe just a slight delay to the decent sized purchase by the Chairman. There have not been many BOD purchases over the last few years, even in the placings, so this seems a reasonable vote of confidence IMHO .
Time will tell
Never a good look sneaking results out after market close IMHO.
Definitely a good sign and a decent size purchase. We are currently c30% below the recent 8p placing so any decent news should see this climbing- the building blocks are now in place.
IMHO no chance the CEO will buy in the market. He doesn't need to as he gets so many free shares/lowly priced options just for staying in post. When he sold a % of free shares to pay the tax, rather than use a small proportion of his excessive salary , it speaks volume.
Our remuneration committee is so weak when they delayed paying his bonus by 3 or 6 months due to cashflow issues, and gave him an extra 25% to 'reward' his patience. Unbelievable.
I agree. The ex CEO knows the current trading position and appears to be in his 60s so 5m shares at 20p is still £1m - a nice retirement nest egg.
If he does sell even some of the shares as he owns 7% of the company this will clearly have a negative effect on the SP in the short term and the SP fell 20% yesterday so it is clearly vulnerable.
It also appears he was sacked so i suspect he is not leaving on good terms
The departing CEO has over 5.2m shares so that's a decent chunk if he is to dispose of them.
He has options too but they are worthless at these prices.
His basic salary was a very conservative £92k so this won't be a massive hit if he due say 6 months salary
I agree sitandwatch - a lot of due diligence will have been undertaken before an offer was even made as for example last year's full accounts are in the public domain.
EAAS would not have agreed to formal discussions with a preferred bidder without the bid being serious and 'agreed in principle'. The bid is over £30m , not £30m BTW.
Clearly there are a few further hurdles to jump over, but on the whole i am reasonably confident that we will get a favourable deal in the next few weeks.
Came on this board to see views on the SP etc. To read Synic's bizarre take on the world is an unexpected delight.
He comes on every 6 months or so, makes some random comments on the world and then disappears.
Farage for Tory leader - you heard it here first!
With the AGM about 3 weeks away, i suspect the BOD will want the sale to be sorted on or before that date.
As long as we hit >100k prescriptions for 2023 this will start to get noticed as that is significant growth and Accrufer will start being viewed across the industry as the mid point between the poorly absorbed salt based tablets and the expensive IV.
I think this would be a sensible acquisition for any of the larger IV companies.
Regarding AOP they now have 311m shares - about 40% of all shares.
Back in 2021 when the placing was at 30p they had c28m shares and i think about 12m of these were from the early placing at 150p.
Since then they took 57m at 6p in Dec 2022 and converted over 150m shares as part of the loan agreement at c6p.
They also took 21m shares at 8p at the recent placing.
So i'm pretty sure their average is now under 10p. A 20p offer might be of interest - still only c£150m for a major drug.
Interestingly the 2nd largest shareholder is Inventages/Nestle who have 56m shares. These were purchased at the initial placing at 150p and have never been increased (or decreased since) .
Very undervalued according to Share Magazine
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/article/three-quick-and-easy-ways-to-screen-the-market-for-value-stocks
I agree the Energy Management division will be sold off. Firstly there is more than one interested party and the RNS states discussions are at an advanced stage. I think the loan repayment due in May 2024 is predominantly covered by the money just received from Luce so this is not a fire sale.
At H1 Energy management was growing slower than the services division but EBITDA was higher at over £4m. Always difficult to value a growing company, but i'd like to see minimum 5 x full year EBITDA.
As EAAS as a whole is currently valued at c£20m this looks a good spin off.
However, the devil is in the detail - will it be full cash or cash plus shares? Will all/most of the money be paid upfront or will some of the money be linked to future performance etc.
Even if 'only' £10m was returned as a special div that would be c3p a share.
If we do receive £30m upfront difficult to see how the whole company is not valued at c£50m - c 15p a share.
ILoq tie up definitely looks interesting
https://www.iloq.com/en-uk/
The City Pub takeover is very interesting as it shows there is value in the gastro pub/beer garden market which is exactly the same space as Peach pubs.
City Pubs has performed well over the last couple of years and yet Youngs has still paid a decent premium.
Peach was bought for £16m just over a year ago and seems to be the best performing part of the business.
RBG is currently valued at c£8m. So you could buy the whole company for £12 to £15m .
Anything under 5p seems good value IMHO
Just watched it. Some good things - H2 trading going well and more acquisitions due etc.
Not sure i warmed to CEO. Didn't really accept that the sell off has been poorly received by the market, when it clearly is the case.
Ultimately it is a profitable company paying a decent divi. It is valued £8m and has net assets of £15m, although £5m of this is intangible.
We are also due c£5m over the next 3 years.
Hardman research note today - nothing new but quite encouraging.
Notes that salesforce is not at full capacity yet - has YE numbers of 110k , which is ok if hit.
Growth in the effectiveness of each rep translates into an increase in the number of
Rx-filled, which, in turn, generates the sales forecast. Key for 2023 will be the
effectiveness of the complete 100-person sales team in the final quarter. Although
both the 2Q’23 and indicated 3Q’23 outcomes are extremely good, the growth rates
were a little below our forecasts. Consequently, our growth rate for 4Q’23 has been
reduced from 120% to 95%. This would generate a new Rx total for 2023 of just
over 110,000. This is towards the bottom of the new range stated by Shield
management of 100,000 to 130,000 Rx for 2023.
The reduction (20%) in 2023 Accrufer Rx has had a knock-on effect on subsequent
years. However, because we expect the field force to become more effective over
the next 24 months it is less detrimental. For 2024, we are now expecting ca.330k
(previously ca.371k) Rx; and for 2025, we are on ca.453k (ca.506k).
Why are you not convinced? Are you just a glass half empty person? The RNS excerpt below says they have entered into a period of exclusivity with one party - so that shows things have progressed considerably. Also later on it states that discussions are at an advanced stage. That's a massive tick in the box IMHO.
During the first half of 2023, the Board received a number of unsolicited approaches expressing interest in acquiring the Energy Management division (the "Division"). The Board engaged professional advisers to conduct a strategic review of the Division, following which the Board received a number of indicative cash offers which valued the Division in excess of £30 million. The Board has now entered into a period of exclusivity with one of the interested parties.
The £2.5m loan needs to be re-paid mid 2024 - May or June i think. Interest is c15% so i think c£3.2m will need to be re-paid.
In June we were told we would get cash on completion of a min of £1,073k. In the accounts today it states we received only £670k plus £380k shares were essentially cancelled and placed in Treasury (to give to the BOD in bonuses in the future?) .
So that comes to £1,050k - £23k short.
Not massive but as the terms of the sell were so attractive to Morley and Co you would think they could at least pay the full amount.
By letting them essentially pay only 10% upfront this has eliminated the potential of a special dividend, which would have helped the SP.
Agree, good results and a really positive forward looking statement (and they are already 4 months into the new year, so will have a good feel on H1 numbers).
Only slightly disappointment for me (and also clearly the market, based on SP action since the Vigilant sell) is the low amount paid upfront and the need to wait 3 years before full payment is received.