Member Info for shandypants2

I think most people who have invested in HVO (so not STT) know it is a good company, providing a unique service in an important and growing sector.

Clearly the impact of Trump and the US in general has caused massive issues in the pharma market as a whole and companies are quite rightly delaying certain projects/trials etc. I can't see any short term change in this and the likelihood is there may be more pain for HVO.

However, there is still a reasonable amount of cash in the bank (the divi is c£1.3m so almost irrelevant IMHO), hopefully enough to get us through a potentially choppy 2026.

Hopefully some people did top slice when the price was in the high 20s/low 30s last year - i did as it was valued at over £200m which looked a bit on the high side. Yes the chairman sold out too, as he is entitled to, however, this was well before Trump came in and i'm pretty sure Cathal did not knew something re the US election 6 months in advance .

For me there are no red flags, just a global slowdown in the pharma industry. Pharma is too big to remain like this indefinitely.

AI should have a transformative impact on this industry and yet none of this seems to be factored in.

I will sit on my hands and maybe top up if the price goes down to 5p . Keep the faith

500k shares were bought by the company yesterday on volumes of 1.1m shares traded. Surely this has got to pop soon as this is quite aggressive buying. I remember it sat at 90p for almost a month despite the high volume of buybacks before it jumped in a few days to well over £1.

A couple of big sells to support this buying (200k and 250k) so maybe they are helping a few friends to top slice.

Everything looks very positive here so can see a steady rise to 150p in the next few months when they smash their 2025 YE targets

So EA has just been sold for $55bn which seems a high valuation even by US standards. It's revenues for 2025 are expected to be c$7.5bn so the price is c7 times revenue.

It clearly shows how gaming is in the spotlight and has premium valuations.

If Playstack has 2025 revenues of say £50m and it is valued at 5 times revenue (both quite conservative) that's c£250m alone or c250p per share.

CEO has always said each business is available if the right offer comes in. We can dream

Also, at no point does the article mention there are alternative options and the life of an existing turbine can be extended - a bit like a regular servicing a car.

For example with offshore sites repowering would make economic sense - replacing an ageing turbine with a newer, more efficient model while potentially reusing existing foundations, which is a large % of the initial cost for offshore .

The last new contract RNS was 16/7. We usually get a new one every 2 months or so so now the quiet summer period has finished hopefully we will get 1 or 2 in the next few weeks. Could definitely do with some SP momentum.

Myers has sold out completely - check RNS from a month or so ago.

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQuEa5KAZ8k

Also, a very positive Investor Meets H1 update from the CEO last week.

Although they are being careful not to over promise i strongly expect an 'exceeding forecast' trading update RNS in the next few months.

Well the 'nothing' event of the interims has knocked almost 20% off the SP in the last few weeks, so clearly the market has interpreted them as a negative.

I don't think anyone is worked up by the share buyback, merely confused.

The liquidity of this stock is so low the buybacks would be meaningless and so it has proved. Despite extending the buyback only a month or so ago they are now being cancelled, so why bother extending?

This is a solid little company, but not the most exciting.

Sorry Growth - my mistake. Thought that was a TU with the numbers formalised a few months later, as per 2024. Re-reading it they clearly did the accounts a lot quicker this year so TU was also H1 numbers.

Hopefully we will get a TU as some point in Oct, perhaps with contract news, else we will have to wait until January and the SP could drift down further

The Viatris deal has milestone payments being made to Shield if total annual sales/revenues exceed $100m.

Using this figure at $250 per prescription that's 400k prescriptions per annual or 100k a quarter - about double our current levels.

Based on this $100m that c$50m gross profit and maybe $20m actual profit. As a growing company this could be valued at 20 xPE = $400m or about £300m.

With 1bn shares that's c30p a share.

Very achievable IMHO

If they continue to buyback aggressively, as they have done previously, this can only have a positive impact on the SP.

With current YE revenue guidance of c£50m this will clearly be smashed - £35m at H1 and £11m done in first 2 months of H2.

With H1 PBT of over £5m a £10m YE PBT seems realistic. A PE of c10 for a growing company is madness.

There is a risk for any medical procedure.

Millions of people get iron infusion via IV each year and these can only be undertaken in hospitals due to the risk of side effects and other reactions.

Every IV infusion includes 30 minutes post IV monitoring to ensure the patient does not have any adverse reaction.

I suspect it's the same with the lung scanning.

When i give blood i have to hang around for 10 minutes or so to ensure there is no reaction. This is pretty standard procedure with even the most common medical procedure.

Yes, the pattern of a slow drift down after a big uplift continues.

Interim results were on 30/9 last year, so i expect similar this year. Last year the outlook/post period statement was very positive, detailing both the Q3 rev and what rev was already booked for Q4 along with a confirmation of their YE guidance (overall the 2024 rev was only £6m on H1 but £19m in H2).

With 2025 YE guidance of £28m and with £10m recorded in H1 we need a similar H2 performance so the outlook statement is key.

Notice Young's Pub continues to perform well.

Still think they could easily come in and bid for Peach pubs. Both mainly southern based and beer garden focused.

Young's did pub City Pubs a few years ago so not sure they need Peach, but it would be a cheap add on.

Even selling at a small loss , say £15m, would be multiples of the current SP

A bit of a disappointing update really. Wasn't expecting fireworks as we knew revenues were flat on H1 2024 but to have moved from a decent profit to a small (ish) loss is not great - a c£400k negative swing.

Also, as per the RNS, hidden away is ...

In relation to share buybacks, the Board has decided to bring the formal programme to an end with effect from the end of September. Thereafter, buybacks will be considered on an ad hoc basis.

No real surprise

The core business has been running at a loss for a number of years now and this is clearly a keep the lights on placing - some of it is required to pay the auditors!

The distillery, now completed, is clearly worth a lot more than its cost, hence why Cooley keeps buying but the rest of the business appears unsustainable.

What price would we get for selling off Red Leg?

The 10% drop is because people are concerned the BOD cannot be trusted. You can't make a statement 1 week stating that everything is on track and then do a placing little more than 1 week later. Why do the placing? Because they clearly need the extra money.

And less than 2 weeks ago the BOD reconfirmed breakeven by YE, which is only 4 months away. It clearly appears we need this extra £1.5m to reach this target. Clearly subscriptions are growing, maybe not quickly enough

MC now c£10m with c£5m in cash. Massively undervalued.

Steady growth each year and the odd reasonably priced acquisition. Not the most exciting company but a good one with a growing divi.

Hopefully YE results will see PBT of over £1m

Good find and all very positive. I did get a bit excited at the mention of the 4th tower in the Singapore Marina hotel and the strong potential of a casino contract linked to this, as SNX has the contract for the existing 3, however, on investigation this won't be completed until 2030.

SP has ticked up a little recently, as it did this time last year. A repeat to the 370s seems on the cards in anticipation of strong YE numbers.