RE: Position?2 Jul 2025 15:17
It's been a difficult stock to hold over the last 3 or 4 years. Firstly, the BOD massively over extended themselves and hit big cashflow problems (despite the bulk of the Utility purchase being funded with a 15p placing) which required the company to take out essentially an emergency loan from 'friendly' shareholders of £2.5m at 15% interest, including some BOD members.
The EDM sale came at a critical time and i suppose we got a decent price considering the distressed finances. At the time the whole company was valued at c£20m and we got £25m cash for c60% of the business.
I thought this would be the springboard to pay off all debts, have a clean balance sheet and start moving forward, however, H1 2024 was a disaster (did the BOD focus too much on the EDM sale??). H2 2024 shows that there is a profitable business here in a massively important and growing sector.
The extent of the write downs is a concern too, however, hopefully all the bad news is now out there.
2025 should be a profitable year and based on say 1 x revenue or maybe 8 x EBITDA valuations the SP should be c8p minimum.
I think 2025 progress was deliberately vague in the RNS this week as i think any good news would have been overshadowed.
There was a H1 trading update in late July last year and i would expect the same this year.
We have been told £7m revenue was already booked in Q1 2025 so i'm expecting at least £12m for H1, which would be 100% up on H1 2024. This will give confidence that the £28m target for 2025 is on track. Personally, i think this target is reasonably conservative and i would like £30m.
I think the EBITDA margin target is c12.5%. Personally i would like to see this increase to 15% and maybe 20% longer term.
I certainly see EAAS being a £50m company which is c13p a share