Member Info for shandypants2

As per RNS last week £100k will be spent up to the end of June buying back shares - assuming c35 trading days that's about £3k a day.

Looking at daily trade volumes they are often only a few thousands, and since January i can only see 2 days where more than 50k shares were traded.

Even reasonably low purchase (c4k shares per day) will hopefully have a positive impact on the SP, so maybe £1 will be seen again in the next few weeks.

Quick question re RNS share purchases. I notice most companies do this daily. TST hasn't done it yet. I believe the cost of each RNS is £300 so it would be ridiculous to expect TST to pay £1.5k a week. Are there rules regarding how often TST must RNS their share buybacks?

I think there is positive news but it is being overlooked.

Firstly the negatives - the sell of EMD produced a decent amount of money (£25m of which £17m cash after debts were repaid) seems to have almost disappeared albeit the balance sheet is now much improved, the performance of the company just before and after the sell was poor as it appeared the BOD were too focused on getting the sell completed, and also a number of adjustments and write downs since then are never well received.

The positives - EAAS is in better shape to go after bigger contracts and the framework with the NHS is clearly a positive. H2 performance in 2024 was very good and this momentum appears to have continued in 2025 - a minimum £7m rev was booked for Q1 2025, usually the lowest quarter. Based on this rev for 2025 of £30m seem very realistic. I think that's a 25% to 30% increase on 2024.

External factors also have an impact - it appears net zero is not a 'sexy' area to be in ATM, which is surely just wrong.

I remember this share got featured in the Mail a few years ago and jumped from c8p to c25p within a few months. It is in a much better place now.

Not saying we will see 25p again but 10p seems very achievable and conservative on say £30m rev and profits of £5m.

It was a negative reaction to a decent AGM statement - all on track for 2025 growth supported by contact wins across all sectors.

However, this is seriously undervalued so SP will surely move up eventually. Today's RNS contact win will obviously help

I shouldn't gloat - but this is STT's post from early April having a pop at HVO whilst promoting TLY. This clearly hasn't aged well in just 4 weeks!!!

"Panmure Liberum has issued a broker note titled “Healthcare: A ‘safeish’ haven from tariffs.”"

I've been saying "everyone needs healthcare" for years. Regardless of age, status, everyone needs healthcare.

The same comments/metrics apply to TLY, healthcare provider to the NHS.

"firm has set a share price target of 24p."

TLY's broker has a target of 20p. Current sp is 4.5p!!! So which has better upside!!!

TLY's revenue fy25, just ended, £85m... Mcap £7m

On HVO, Panmure target same as before, still only 24p, significantly below the sp that the chairman dumped his entire holding at 28/29p. Which backs up my assertion these were a 'sell' at my 26.6p over a year ago, Jan 2024.

TLY's RNS today is one of the worst i have ever seen. Feel sorry for anyone invested - even STT ( a little!)

Wow a terrible triple whammy RNS - over estimated rev/profits, needs more capital, so a potential placing on way, and legal proceedings against the company appear to have legs.

No wonder the CFO is leaving.

Stockcheque - stop quoting the loan can be converted into a £30m investment. As per the RNS from 2021, below, it stated the loan (which is £3m, the extra £2m investment was never made by DIS) can be converted into Ardgowan shares at an overall valuation of £30m. So if the £3m was converted into shares the share capital would increase to £33m and DIS would hold 3/33 or 9 % of the overall company.

Who knows what the completed distillery is worth. If it is more than £30m then the investment could prove to be a bargain. I suspect Cooley thinks it should be worth a lot more based on his continued buying.

Conversion Terms: At any time during the term of the Loan at a valuation of £30 million, which, assuming the loan outstanding is £5 million, equates to approximately 14.28% of Ardgowan's fully diluted issued share capital.

The loan DIS gave Ardgowan is £3m as recorded on their accounts. The value of the distillery could be £20m to £30m of which DIS has a 10% share if it chooses to convert it's loan.

I was initially excited by the whisky opportunity but it is a competitive market and DIS has next to no marketing budget

Have to agree LWHL. STX has a long history of missing targets so being breakeven by end of year still appears an aspiration and the 2 recent quarters have disappointed in terms of prescription numbers, which clearly need to be increasing each quarter (and surely this should also happen partly organically as more doctors prescribe the product and have confidence in the results, so are more likely to prescribe to other patients).

Ultimately cash is king and it appears $6m was burnt in the last quarter, leaving $10.5m. Another poor quarter, including only marginal grow, will not cut it.

43k prescriptions were issued in Q3 so surely we should be at c50k now, instead we've had 41k and now 36k. The excuses seem weak too (having worked with a salesforce you are rarely at 100% as the lower performers are forced out and the best ones are often approached by rivals.) The weather excuse was a new one too.

Just listened to the recent presentation and although the words were encouraging the body language was less so IMHO.

Q2 and Q3 will be crucial. Let's see how we get on.

Incidentally the Japan deal is good, as Japan has a big iron deficiency issue, however, the upfront payment is small and regulatory approval could take a couple of years. It's all about US sales

For balance the freezing of thresholds was introduced by the Tories a few years ago and in fact has been reduced by 1 year by Reeves (from 2029 to 2028).

As the state pension has recently risen by more than inflation to c£12k a year it is near the £12,570 threshold for 20% income tax, however, clearly any pensioner who has a work or private pension on top of the state pension will already almost certainly be paying income tax on this additional pension.

Furthermore if state pensioner do get 'dragged' into paying income tax it will only be on the amount above £12,570. So let's say the state pension gets to £13,570 in a couple of years then the taxable amount is £1k so £200 tax to be paid (£16 a month) and of course pensioners don't pay NI.

In summary, not really the end of the world.

Final results now in. Looks quite good and a small growing profit has been announced.

My big concern is the trade payables amount on the balance sheet - it is over £5.4m. We have c£1.8m in trade receivables and a similar amount in the bank, but clearly we owe in outstanding invoices far more than that and we need to find this extra £2m within 1 year, or roll it over as it appears happened last year when the figures were similar.

There is also borrowings totalling almost £1m, although this seems to be well managed and is coming down each year.

I note a potential dividend was mentioned, however, i think we are a few years away from this.

Or maybe not - Trump seems to be changing his mind (again). From the BBC below

Drugmakers' stocks in Europe slipped after Trump reiterated plans for a "major" tariff on all pharmaceutical imports while speaking at a Republican Party dinner yesterday.

Medicines had previously been exempt from tariffs according to White House documents., external Trump did not say when and by how much he plans to raise taxes on pharma imports. But the change in stance prompted a wild swing in stocks.

British drugmakers AstraZeneca and GSK topped the losers board in London, both down over 4%. Europe's most valuable company Novo Nordisk, which produces weight-loss drugs Ozempic and Wegovy, fell around 5% in Copenhagen. French pharmaceutical group Sanofi and German biotech firm Sartorius also dropped around 5%.

The president has said the tariffs will incentivise drug companies to move their operations to the US. But analysts and companies have raised concerns about the difficulty in moving manufacturing there.

Won best debut game - missed out on the top award, but still a great achievement.

https://www.radiotimes.com/technology/gaming/balatro-fans-react-to-ben-starr/

The effective and AIM cancellation date is 9th April (tomorrow) and it says cash will be paid within 14 days.

Previously i usually received money pretty quickly via HL, no idea if this is due to HL being good

Another decent contract win today. Despite the market chaos EAAS is getting on with things. Getting into hospitals should open up many more opportunities

The UK exported almost £60bn worth of goods to the US last year, mainly machinery, cars and pharmaceuticals.

As Shield is a UK based company and is selling a product into the US market i presume we will be hit by this 10% tariff.

If so this will clearly have some impact, however, no idea how much. I presume this will be added to the price the wholesaler pays which i suspect is a lot lower than the price insurance companies give us.

Thanks for the response BBN.

I did listen to the Investor Meets presentation so am aware of their explanation.

I assume you are reasonably new to STX so haven't been impacted by the many missed targets and extended deadlines over the years.

For instance the sales team has only been in place for 18 months is quite a disingenuous statement to make as accrufer has been sold by STX in the US since July 2021 albeit with a smaller, internal salesforce. So they should have almost 4 years of learnings. Clearly focusing resources on those areas where sales are highest is pretty obvious IMHO.

Also mentioning Medicaid is slightly confusing as this accounts for less than 20% of US insurance coverage so i assume also less than 20% of accrufer sales.

When you say "Note the important quote that says "we get paid when our wholesaler buys from us..." " may not actually be the reality and is more of an accounting principle.

What i think they mean here is that revenues gets recognised when the wholesaler buys, not that revenues get received as this appears to be taking many months via the insurer. Accrufer is only available on prescription. The wholesaler will supply chemists/pharmacists so clearly if they sell more then wholesalers will respond and buy more and this then gets fed down to the individual stores who dispense.

The wholesaler is not paying us the same price as the insurer companies so this is the bit that confuses me.

To get the average NSP to $237 based on 78% insurance paid for prescriptions, if we assume the average insurer price is c$300 (it varies by each insurer) and the 22% sold at 'cost' of say $20 gets us to about that figure.

Obviously when the wholesaler buys we have no idea what the prescription mix will be.

Anyway, let's see how they get on in Q1

12p per share fair value?? Yes , i agree.

Here's a simple calculation. In 2024 rev was £21m and EBITDA was £2.4m, however, this included a really disappointing H1 where rev was £6m and EBITDA loss was £2m. Therefore, in H2 2024 rev was £15m and EBITDA was £4.4m, a % of almost 30%.

If H2 2024 gets repeated for the entire 2025 that's rev of £30m (looks realistic as Q1 already has £7m rev booked in Jan).

Even at a lower EBITDA margin of say 20% that's £6m for the year.

A realistic and conservative EBITDA value for a growing company is c8 times - so that would value EAAS at £48m. With 387m shares in issue that's 12.4p per share.

The only potential issue is the ex director Derek Myers who has c42m shares and we know he has recently sold c1m . Hopefully he doesn't need to sell anymore as this seems to have kept the price down recently.

CFO seems quite excited by 2025 revenues so hopefully the momentum from Jan and Feb (£14.8m) will continue through the year as new games get released.

I think the muted SP reaction is because there is a seller in the background. This happened in Jan after the great RNS when the SP jumped about 20% to 95p only to end the day flat as a seller was clearly offloading. SP has gone nowhere since.

When he/she is out hopefully proper value will be restored - the H1 update number should be really good.

BBN - thank you for your analysis.

Regarding revenues i was a bit confused with the Feb update.

The US healthcare market is predominantly a paid for service, mainly via insurance. I believe over 90% of the population is covered, either via work healthcare (c65%) and then state funded providers Medicare and Medicaid. My understanding is that the amount we get for accrufer depends on the agreement we have with each insurance company.

From the Feb update i understand why the NSP increased - we are essentially giving away less prescriptions at cost or even free (this will always be required to convince new clinicians to try the product etc), and i also understand why the revenues and prescriptions are out of sync.

What i don't understand is the wholesale element. Clearly we sell to pharmacies etc so they have stock available, however, what we recognise in revenue is surely dependent upon how much each insurer is paying and how long it take so get this money out of them (it appears this process is quite complicated and longwinded).

Neither you or the Feb update have mentioned insurers, although ultimately they pay for the product.

In the early days few insurers covered accrufer so most of the prescriptions were given out at cost - hence the low NSP. This has gradually increased as more insurance companies cover the product so less prescriptions are 'free'.

So surely the NSP we receive is dependent on what the insurers pay and not what the wholesaler pays for the product as the two amounts will be vastly different.

Thanks in advance