Bellway's half time whistle today....25 Mar 2025 10:30
I just crunched this morning's numbers for Bellway…
Reality check EPS ~ by which I mean taking the progress of net tangible assets from the start to the end of the period, divided by the number of shares in issue, and adjusted for dividends paid during the period, came out at 93.7p, which was better than the declared EPS of 84.6p.
This gives a return on equity of 3.2% for the half year ~ so call that the equivalent of 6.4% for the full year though it may of course differ to some degree from that come the full time whistle...?
This does at least represent progress over last year’s ROE of 5.0% using the same method of calculation.
For the next two years, the scribblers have Bellway down for ROEs of 6.4% and 7.7%...
They’d had them down for an ROE of 5.6% this year….
So Bellway are at least doing a Ronseal, but clearly they’re having to grind it out ~ and we seem to me to be looking at being light years away from the recent past glory years coming up to 2020 when the ROE was in the 20%’s…
I have arguably been Bellway’s biggest fan in the past ~ they are the benchmark house builder share amongst our investing crew and not for nothing are they also known to us by the moniker “Ghostdog” for their long term seeming ability to glide through the years without any big hoo-hah and so without being particularly noticed yet having a long term track record that trumps the others…
But in recent times, my holding is down to just around 1% of portfolio ~ enough to keep me paying some sort of attention still, but without any angst about the slow progress that, it seems to me, may as I’ve said above make for it being many years before they return to anything like their former glory…?
If ever, now ~ given that we have Ange in charge of the game for the mo and who knows what the state of the nation will be in four or so years’ time…?
I can only live in hope, but, in the meantime, most of my money is now with the three big insurance boys…
Strictly