Bellway Share Price (BWY)

More than double that of other Housebuilders, difficult to see any logical reason. unless shorts having some fun.

Be amazed if it stays below 18.50 for long but a good time to add at this price.

Paddy,

I honestly don’t have a view on where the price may go..?

But I am keeping clear until and unless the future for house builders looks more promising…

And bear in mind that Vistry are clearly in very bad shape at the moment and if they collapse then I don’t imagine that that will do sentiment for the sector a lot of good if you are concerned about share prices…?

Strictly

Paddy, I would have totally the opposite view of Bellway to Strictly (different opinions are fine).

I've also got a long history with the company, currently have a six figure holding, and my wife also works there ; internally the mood is still bullish, albeit slightly tempered by the situation in the middle east.

My own opinion is that the current SP is extremely cheap, with prices at levels we rarely see with Bellway, I believe there is considerable upside here, ending hostilities in the middle east alone will comfortably add £2-£3 to the SP, then you have buybacks, an OK and rising dividend and the constant demand for housing....if the SP isn't around £24-£25 by year end I'd be very surprised. When housebuilding shares get momentum they tend to move very quickly.

Stick with it and I believe you'll be handsomely rewarded.

FYI, the interim divided is only around 1.2-1.3% which will probably be factored in to the SP, however with so much potential short term volatility it could just as easily rise by 5% on the day.

Strictly, do you see a big fall on dividend date, I was hoping in making some money then heading for the exit.

Paddy,

If you’re interested enough to do so and care to click on my moniker and scroll back far enough through my past comments here, you’ll probably notice two things…

Which are firstly that I have been a very big fan of Bellway in the past and secondly that I like a few numbers to back up what I am saying… 😊

Bellway were my benchmark share for twenty years… up to six years ago, they’d averaged a return on equity of 16% going back forty years...

In my humble opinion, that was an awesome track record and which would make them a screaming buy at the current PBV of only 0.6.

But they ain’t making 16% ROE these days, or anything like it.

And it’s getting worse.

Some more numbers.

In November 2021, the scribblers had Bellway’s forecast 2024 EPS in for 422p… scroll forward to the actual figure and it was only 144p

In November 2022, the forecast for 2025 was 268p but it ended up at only 145p

Now we’re into predicting the future from here.

In November 2023, the scribblers’ EPS forecast for 2026 was 226p, but that has been ebbing away slowly and now the forecast is for only 187p

Similar stories for 2027 and 2028 forecast EPS.

These have dropped from 278p to 210p for 2027 and from 279p to 252p for 2028.

Bellway’s actual return on equity, the most important metric when it really comes down to it, was only 5.0% for 2024 and also 5% again for 2025.

Their forecast ROE for 2026 which, as shown above, will be sliding along with the falling EPS, is now currently only 6.3%.

And the direction of travel remains downward.

……

Now, how you call it on all that is obviously your responsibility, but my view is that Bellway are but a shadow of their former selves and, like the rest of us, they have likely still to endure a further three years of the lunatics being in charge of the asylum.

And I’m currently still not holding any Bellway these days ~ whereas there have been times in the past when I’ve had 100%, my entire share portfolio, just in that one company.

Strictly