Hutchmed Share Price (HCM)

I was hoping for it to stay put a little while longer, have another holding coming up to fruition, always the way when you spot a bargain lol.

Partnership news would be good too, that could blow out the cob webs..

Decent bounce in HK today….although Hutchmed is a laggard with a 6% gain. The biotech etf is up 8.5% and others are up 12-15%.

There are four NDAs pending with the NMPA. Savo Gastric Cancer and Fanregratinib were submitted in Dec 25 with priority review I would expect Savo to be soon as it is a new label rather than new product, but the target of 130 working days is approaching. If they have not been approved before the HY results there could be issues the company needs to update us with.

The other two are Sovleplenib, ITP was resubmitted in Feb 26 and wHIA in April, these could go into Q1 27 despite the second having priority review.

Trump has certainly upset Europe big time, their move towards sovereignty has taken a sharp move upwards (see S4 thread on Open Office EU software).

I think China will do really well as companies aligning themselves more with China than before, this is also true of the EU who have been fairly public.

Markets are forward looking, quite how far not sure but maybe next year investors might start looking beyond the Trump administration.

I think it is back to the geo-political situation.

There has been chat about the US being concerned about reliance on Chinese innovation and additional non-tariff / tariff trade barriers being established - eg R&D capability in US. It seems the US wants to cement its leadership and not allow Chinese (or Europeans) to become the really big pharma.

The licensing deals may become harder to execute…..but that has not stopped deals and may have even accelerated US Pharma thinking they need to get them done before new restrictions are created.

For the licensing entity there is an element of selling the future benefits of products to others at a discount so maybe the market thinks too much value is being stripped from Chinese entities.

On a fundamental basis, chinese innovation seems to be doing really well and advancing patient outcomes……over time this will be reflected in shareholder returns…..the chinese market needs consolidation to create some larger companies that can go on to be global in scale. HCM has the ATTC platform as its shot to become more valuable, if that produces average returns then the company needs to be assumed into a larger entity.

I am leaving my HCM holding and have recently purchased Innovent and BeOne (yes I know they are know Swiss but they are Chinese at their core)

The Hang Seng and Biotech index have had a torrid time, Biotech index is at historic lows so maybe due a rebound.

Fundamentals continue to look strong for biotech in general, not sure why the market has turned pessimistic.