Member Info for Jatw

Deal announced for IPSEN to acquire all of epizyme for $1.45 per share plus another .30 if sales (excl China) hit $250m before 2026.
The warrant has no value at this level, but it might be converted into a similarly underwater warrant in ipsen….info not available on the press I have seen.
I am sure Hutchmed would have been invited to bid…..but did not want to commit such a large chunk of its resources….they will still ride tazverik if it is a success.

Gary
Insurance companies are much more cautious than you think. Since Solvency II came into force asset allocations for capital funds have become much lower risk…..from a capital risk perspective….sadly that means a lot of overpriced govt and corporate debt that has recently fallen in value as yields have risen (not so safe after all - who would have thought they were exposed because of all time low interest rates for years).
The publicSFCR document is the one to read to understand the capital position of an insurance company.

All the pharma cos I track are showing strong gains in HK this week.
There seems to be a sector revival going on.
Not out of the woods yet, but grounds for optimism that the worst in terms of market valuation and risk taking is over…..the pendulum always swings past the equilibrium point….it is reverting towards better value….

Interesting piece in the FT this week about pre clinical pharma cos facing difficult funding rounds.
While not immediately relevant to HCM it is possible that the surufatinib FDA decision could mean more funding is needed in 2024. Hopeful this will not be required if fruquintinib steps up globally.
If it looks likely then I expect the independent shareholders will push for a cost saving merger with a partner like innovent where overlapping programmes could be cut to allow both to continue with no fundraising needed.

Todays software investments, one a full acquisition and the other a staged buy are positive for the future. Enabling better fee earning services and expanding development capacity.

Trading update on 27 July is one to look forward to.

Fortunately the US is closed….but the UK has back tracked towards Fridays US price.

HK can have another go at HKD20 tonight.

Brave of Dr Kania to go out with no news to counter the disappointment of being knocked back in the US.
It seems there is not much to be expected in H2 apart from the fresco2 read out and potentially the MAA for surufatinib…..but that could be a while as physical inspections are needed in China…..no news is errr…..nothing to get excited about.

They are Just tying to drum up some profitable business.
BTW the fee to move to another broker is £15. So if you want to sell move first and pay your platform fee it will be cheaper than the 25p per share (about 15%) or max £50.
Moving before they put the charge up.

Aberdeen would do better to ask individuals to move to ii.

Good memory BBD, yes MNG needs to reengineer its business and create some growth in its AUM to offset market forces that are reducing fees. This will protect Improve underlying profits….headline profit is affected by mark to market on certain assets which protect the solvency of the company and is why the dividend cover is variable year on year while solvency remains strong.
The UK move towards wealth management (advice and platform) are steps on this journey, as is client fund flow which has turned positive for institutional business…(surely a lead indicator for retail) on the back of improved performance.
A Prufund variant has been launched in Italy with other territories to follow no doubt.

Meanwhile the capital tied up in the annuity back book is being realised and if solvency II capital turns out to be too prudent there will be more than expected and lasting longer. (Or an additional release if the rules are rewritten). Interest rate rises can reduce liabilities but also result in credit losses (there were downgrades but v low losses in the 2008 crisis)

Having said that, MNG is not immune from the wider market and financials are often the worst sector when there is a recession….looming, although long term savings and wealth management are more resilient as savers tend to think long term rather than gamblers playing th market.

Capital across the sector is generally strong and there is no reason to believe the dividend will be reduced at present…..if solvency gets to 170% then begin to worry about it, or if it not covered by underlying profits but at 190% plus it seems safe at present.

There is significant change in the Directors so it will be interesting to see if a new strategy emerges, new chair, ceo retiring, new CFO, new COO. The new CEO likely to want some new Blood to run the business units….

MNG is a long term buy and add for me through divi reinvestment and modest additional purchases within ISA/sipp wrapper.

Only based on management presentations the dividend has been based on the ongoing business and the capital return is the cash from selling the back book and the international business.
The share consolidation should have resulted in a share price of around 140. Other wealth managers have also fallen recently driven by the effects of inflation o reducing investments by new and existing clients….and prospects for higher taxes doing more of the same and higher interest rates affecting bond and equity prices. Hence they have gone from being the in demand part of financial services to potentially overvalued. My opinion is that investments are sticky with groups like quilter. The yield is likely to rise but driven by dividend rises rather than a price fall……but who know what the global outlook will be in a year or so. It looks difficult for a while with US China and Russia causing issues.

Some large gains for bio pharma in HK today….US started well yesterday but then faded badly…hopefully it will take a cue from HK which is trying hard but held back by US selling.

https://www.hl.co.uk/investment-services/fund-and-share-account/faqs
HL will automatically reinvest income…..this is their FAQ list in particular:
Reinvestment: Income will be held within your account and accumulated until it reaches or exceeds £10 per holding, when it will be automatically reinvested, or you can choose your own reinvestment level between £10 and £1,000. Reinvestments are made between the 11th and 21st of each month (or as soon as practicable thereafter). If you’d like any share income automatically reinvested, we charge 1% of the trade value (minimum £1, maximum of £10). There is no charge to reinvest fund income.

I think there is an option for each holding….that you have to tick or income will be held as cash.

Not a huge advance getting taz available in Hainan, still need the symphony trial to succeed, but it may provide some real world experience for comfort when the China authorities get to review a NDA in 2024/25

1pencil, think you should x5 the Nasdaq ADs, so more like 2.5m shares traded.

It is london that may lose out in a reduction to two.
Not everything is about cost….as dicussed here before a main market listing would increase the pool of potential shareholders as many funds cannot hold AIM listed stocks.

HSBC is looking to list its Indonesia operations…..it would not be a surprise to me to see Pru start to realise the value of its main Asian markets by floating 25-40% in local markets.

Seems to have bounced off lows in high 70s.
Nearly at HY….still confident this will make headway, but may need more clarity in the markets about the war, inflation and how credit ratings hold up.

Despite the management presentation the market has not reacted positively.
For those of a brave disposition now is a decent entry point….I don’t feel like committing more money until the recovery starts.

Davey, I would agree the logical investment decision is to fill up, the bottom must be near and the prospects not much different on a 3+ year horizon.

Pat XD…..did you walk away
Can you explain the fundamentals comment.
A rise in interest rates means a higher discount rate for the insurance liabilities, which means lower liabilities offset by risk of credit portfolio downgrades.
Investment performance has been improving with institutional inflows….overall lower AUM leads to lower fees, but if there are inflows offsetting market movements the result is marginal.
Inflation is a cost risk, but Athena business continues to reduce costs.
IMO fundamentals are mixed and largely neutral in current conditions…

it mostly depends on when Manulife want to stop paying him they have announced his successor, he will probably start earlier.

He will have limited access during his gardening leave but will have enough to have a plan on day 1.

They have a lot to do including building the Asian shareholder register, negotiating increased shareholding’s in China and Indian JVs, expanding African operations (profitably)
Getting the sales force productivity up from covid lows.
Convincing the HK market and London that Pru is worth more than a tenner a share.

I expect there will be some sales in the markets that favour the west (Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, Korea) and a pivot to areas China influences. If they want to buy their way into Africa now is the time to do it with lower valuations, but I suspect they are in limbo until the new CEO arrives….not sure that makes them vulnerable, but it makes them weaker and should a sizeable deal come along they are likely to lose out in the short term.