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Market says better than holding cash.

Still have net positive cash for additional deals……deal negotiations probably behind the suspension of the buy back….will be interesting if they restart.

Good to see if they can bring the US product to Europe…..it sounds wholesome so should pass European product requirements.

And I forgot a deal with Takeda in October 25 worth 1.2bn upfront and a further 10bn of potential milestone payments.

Comparing the three deals

Takeda took two developed products for immediate impact.

Lilly agreed a deal to take over a set of products for phase 3 trials and commercialisation

Pfizer will used China for all phase 1 work and then share later costs and revenues.

They are phased to meet the counterparty patent timing issues.

This suggests to me that HCM should look for two multi-asset deals

The wave of heamatology products in one deal

And the ATTC platform products.

That follows a deal announced in Feb with Lilly for the antibody conjugate programme.

L pays $350m upfront with milestone payments up to $8.5bn

The scale of these contracts is mind boggling…..the economics are that Innovent de-risks its pipeline costs and can scale the pipeline up, Lilly/Pfizer gain access to China development at pace and scale for future breakthroughs and become more marketing than development companies. The western companies get to cream off the best products and dont have to face direct chinese competition so they get to live for another cycle or two.

The reality is that only some of these programmes will pay out anything like the maximum milestone payments, the headline numbers still need a lot of operational delivery to get close.

Will the Chinese be content with being the innovators in the long run leaving Western companies to market their drugs? Or is it the reality of the spheres of influence being created as globalism retreats a little.

Anyway, for HCM there are still plenty of potential partners out there with deep pockets. They need to learn from their experiences to date, and find a partner that fully commits so their drugs do get the level of investment and promotion they deserve rather than being a back up plan.

A deal for 12 programmes, 4 P 8 I originated.

Co develop 4 globally with co-commercialisation in US and Europe

4 Innovent retains China, P gets ex-china commercialisation

4 P gets global rights

P pays $650m up front. Milestone payments $9.85bn

HCM needs to think big with ATTC.

All the HK listed biopharma have had a tough time in the last couple of weeks, HCM is reasonably typical which gives me hope there is nothing company specific about the SP weakness.

Innocare has announced NDA submission of its main drug for ITP. It is a BTK inhibitor rather than SYK (Sovlep). The internet tells me SYK inhibitors drive a higher response than BTK…..so there should not be anything to fear from Innocare impacting Sovleplenib as long as Sovlep gets approved without undue delay. The ITP therapy landscape continues to develop, a pity that HCM had its issues with impurities within the compound first time around.

I have to declare an interest in CKHH…..I am a long term holder. The share price has looked up this year as they have realised several assets, mostly in the UK.

The company says the sales proceeds will be used to fund new investments, reduce debt and possibly additional shareholder returns.

If a larger pharma wants to take HCM, they may not have a better time to make an offer.

If management wants to remain independent, then they had better hope that ATTC gives them success and rapidly, otherwise they may find themselves merged into another Chinese pharma.

Compoundingm I would agree that Feb27 is the usual target date for a new NDA approval. I am being optimistic that work was well underway on the stability testing under the BTD designation and the Priority review on the second NDA helps too.

Optimistic view - Earliest October

Quite happy - in 2026

Getting worried - if not approved by the FY reporting (historically end Feb/early March)

HCM rose in HK today when most biopharmas fell, so it seems the Frusica-2 approval was well received.

I would like to know how they market the combination therapy and the degree of coordination needed with Innovent sales agents.

28 academic papers are listed in todays RNS. The investigator instigated rarely go anywhere, although HCM is pursuing Surufatinib in PDAC which came from one of them.

BeOne notes 60 at the same meetings.

Next big event with a semi-predictable timeline is the result of the Sovleplenib NDA for ITP.

There are two NDAs running. The ITP NDA was resubmitted in February 2026. Its breakthrough therapy designation allowed ongoing submission of data to the NMPA. There were concerns about the stability of the formulation and further data was supplied throughout 2025. Normally acceptance of the NDA would mean approval would follow after a year, however significant work has been performed over the two years since first submission.

The WAIHA NDA has priority review and was accepted at the end of April giving an indicative date of end October for this indication.

I am consolidating these two NDAs in my mind to think that the NMPA will progress them in parallel to report at the end of October which will allow discussion about NRDL inclusion for 2027. Peak sales in China are projected to be $200-350m. The market is getting more competitive, but the results announced by the Company suggest that patients experience chronic multi-year treatments across different therapies. Sovleplenib appears to have lower toxicity, is a tablet and has top tier effectiveness. Many customers will find their way to Sovleplenib across their treatment journey. Once approved it is likely a good candidate to find a global development and commercialisation partner.

The results of the Frusica-2 study provided compelling numbers to drive this approval.

Just under a year is par for a combination where both drugs are previously approved…..now Hutchmed and Innovent need to get the therapy into hospitals……(and on the NRDL list for 2027 to drive take up)….both drugs are sold at about $14k per annum on the NRDL and there may be 60K patients available pa with survival around 2 years which suggests quite a large market (additional 200m in time, but maybe only 20m in h2 26 before NRDL)

Up 20% over two sessions with no RNS/news to back it up suggests something is driving the price,

But volume is only average which says not much reason to hie the price.

Either news soon or this will drop back hard.

AXA was a 25% investor that sold out 15% to 360 and 10% to Bharti

I assume Bharti wants to reallocate capital elsewhere in its group and to get Pru had to sell a majority stake.

India does allow 100% external ownership in Life businesses, hence Pru may be able to buy full ownership in the future.

Bharti life is growing rapidly but is much smaller than ICICI-Pru (presumably to be renamed soon).

ICICI-Pru life stake has a current market value of c $1.75bn

And the ICICI-Pru AMC stake is c $6.5bn

So there is substantial cash that could be realised in divestments within India for reinvestment into Bharti to support growth and Pru capital management.

That announcement looks like the end of the ICICI JVs is close…..Pru expects to reduce the Life JV to under 10% (less than half existing level) so a full sale is likely, and the Asset Management JV will likely go the same way from 35% unless Pru is going to channel the new Bharti business into the AMC JV which I suspect they will not do.

It is always better to have a controlling stake as that gives control over dividends and capital distributions. So this is probably a net positive for the Group but hard to see the market reaction in these volatile times.

Now will the Chinese work towards a restructuring of the CITIC-Pru JVs?

And will management inform us of the strategy for Pru in China?

JPMorgan now has a TP of 950…..highest I can find at present.

While the TP is not immediately relevant it does suggest JPM has a strong confidence in the company prospects (or maybe it wants a new mandate).

No sales update accompanying todays AGM.

Their competitors on the HK market are routinely announcing quarterly revenue or profitability updates. They are falling behind - but I can understand HCM doesn’t have large sales /profits growth to announce and has less need to update the market.

The think about in market sales is that much of the benefit falls to the rights owner. It is the consolidated sales value that is important.

Of the Takeda sales, HCM gets a mid teens royalty (pure profit), then some manufacturing and other fees which will have a small margin.

Of the Savo sales, again HCM gets a mid teens royalty and manufacturing fees

It seems that milestone payments will be a significant variable for the company. This is largely rescheduled from 2025, but could be delayed further into 2027. Key items will be SAFFRON data read out and NDA submission and additional payments from Takeda on sales volume and possible product development (none hinted at yet but could happen if they take up EMC or RCC extensions).

They will also save on Tazverik payments out, but I doubt they will get any refund from IPSEN for the product withdrawal.

It will move up again if

- Trump/Xi announce something favourable for Pharma

- they increase their target for 2030 above $80bn sales (or margin expansion) at the HY report (if nothing else keeping prices moving with inflation will add a few bn.

The rise might be due to the proposed redemption of the 2028 bond. These are convertible to ordinary shares at the price of EUR 3.32 when the current price is 4.50. Fully converted about 250m shares and 5% of issued shares.

Presumably management consider the price is likely to rise by 2028 and so are avoiding some dilution by trying to get early redemption…..could consider this an additional buy back and a sign of confidence.

A new corporate presentation has been posted.

First impressions are that it has updated for recent NDA submissions, but not much else.

5 approvals expected by mid 27. Hopefully they start coming through much earlier.

Fruq for RCC - think this will be first, coming up to a year from submission so could be v soon.

2x Sovlep - Sept/Oct is the earliest, hopefully in 2026.

Savo GC and Fanregratinib both submitted in Dec 25, so H1 27 is realistic.

Potentially they could get the RCC and Sovlep therapies on the NRDL for 2027.

Steady as she goes seems to be the message they want to land….despite the global volatility.