Member Info for Jatw

I have a race in my head between IPN and AZN….Their share prices in EUR and GBP are of a similar value.

Who will be the first to 200?

IPN as the smaller company should have an advantage, but has now price targets at that level. AZ has big ambitions and already has price targets over 200.

Both targetting significant revenue growth in the next few years.

If there is growth of 15% on average then they get there around the end of 2028/early 2029.

Happy if both get there.

Slater has been a dominant (if not controlling) shareholder for a little while now.

His strategy determines how our investment goes….if he changes course and starts selling he will sink the shares so he has to keep going….a buyer only needs to meet his price and a deal is guaranteed.

He cant keep buying because he will hit a mandatory bid level quite soon…and his funds need liquidity so he cant own VLG.

I do expect he will sell some off market at the 5% margin permitted by the Buy Back terms….

I read there was concern about a read across from ManuLife and its HK new business which was down 30% on Q4 24 (a result which itself was up 165% on 2023 because of product launch)….with the HK trade body announcing significant growth in the market for 2025 it seems unlikely that Pru sales will be anything other than excellent fromHK which is one of the key markets.

Hopefully this recent period of angst is temporary and the results will show the way back to 1200 and beyond.

When the move to the main board happens, Youngs will be close to the automatic entry position to the FT350.

There is currently a few million mcap in it.

Sam

There are two classes of share voting (A shares) and Non-voting (N shares) under tickers YNGA and YNGN.

You get the same dividend on each.

The A shares trade higher and if the share classes are ever consolidated the differential is likely to be maintained. Not sure what happens in the case of a bid, but the A shares decide so presumably would get a higher offer to incentivise acceptance.

The higher yield makes the N shares a better long term investment in my opinion - but take your pick.

I would say the prospects for the dividend are looking up. M&G has three significant business lines:

1 Asset management: was under pressure from AUM declines / lack of growth and fee pressure from passive investment alternatives. The performance of this business has turned around with the investment returns improving, AUM growing and costs reduced. This should result in significantly higher profit contributions in the short term.

2 Shareholder risk business (mostly annuities) - has been shrinking and returning capital to the business. The capital buffer is significantly above target range and will provide cash to the group in the medium term.

3 With-profits business: MNG receives a share of the profits of this business for managing it in excess of 200m pa. The business carries significant capital which partly flows to shareholders as it is distributed to shareholders. PruFund has stabilised the Fund and even increasing it.

The insurance business (collectively the 2nd and 3rd areas above) is well capitalised, although much of this capital is not liquid (eg future transfers from the WP Fund are capital but this is not accessible as the value is still within the WP Fund) and has more than it needs, allowing dividends to be paid at the current level for many years as long as there is sufficient distributable profit and cash.

One of the main issues MNG faces is monetising its interest in the WP fund and the shareholder risk business so that it has sufficient liquidity to continue to pay dividends - with the Asset Management business now back into growth that drops readily into cash profits there is less pressure on liquidity.

If you are worried about the dividend look at:

1 solvency capital ratio (over 180% is effectively surplus capital

2 the cash value of the dividend in % SCR terms

3 the asset management profit (should increase)

4 central costs (includes debt interest)

Overall, I dont expect large raises in the cash cost of the dividend (if they can do a buy back it may rise more at a per share basis).

Our individual yield depends on when you bought in, many will be getting 8% or more. There is always the chance that a large EU/US competitor comes for MNG, like SDR succumbed on Thursday. Still a good place for some of my money.

A really positive outlook issued with the 25 results today has pushed the SP to 150Eur….well done.

It may take a few years, but I expect the foundation trustees will approve a sale to another French pharma in due course.

Strong results were to be expected as the increased revenue from AUM growth should largely drop through to the bottom line. The FY results will be even better if the AUM grows modestly.

I expect the SP will rise from here….I will be buying more shortly.

Ipsen reported a strong set of results today.

Unfortunately Tazverik was not a bright spot with sales (global IPSEN sales) declining 13% due to a limited demand growth and adverse pricing. Total sales reported were 40.6m EUR (vs 46.6m). …waiting another couple fo years for label expansion and the symphony trial.

SACHI may have got another label for Savolitinib, but it all depends on how AZ markets it. The approval was for a limited set of patients who have failed courses of treatment……AZ will push Tagrisso first, then Tagrisso+Savolitinib - presumably at a higher cost…..and off NRDL…..so affordability may be a distinct issues plus AZ did not apply for NRDL for 2026 (same as the initial EXON-14 approach). My view is that AZ is slow walking Savo adoption….possibly waiting for another of its candidates to take up where Tagrisso leaves off - it has another NSCLC drug entering Ph3 trials.

Today’s results are what management has been promising.

Sales growth slightly under 10% and profit growth slightly over.

They are currently making profits of about $8.50/share and paying out $3.20 on 1.5bn shares. (12bn and 5bn respectively)

It has $32bn debt costing about $1.6bn to finance

It is going to have to take on a lot more debt to finance its $65bn commitments….but the good news is that it can support those borrowings with free cash flow. Steady increases in the dividend will happen alongside additional buy backs as long as debt financing is manageable.

I am planning to listen in and if they allow I will ask Qs.

If they are Qs that could be answered in the presentation, then I think an email a week before hand to IR would also be in order.

Today AZ reported $28m sales of Orpathys……which looks like a steadying of the ship rather than the SACHI approval driving significant new uptake….having said in the HY update that growth was returning, they need to comment on the prospects for AZ sales improving in 2026.

Ipsen reports on Thursday, they may say something about Tazverik sales in China.

Clarity around the expected milestone payments from Takeda and AZ would be helpful (and out to Ipsen).

Expensive deal at approaching 4% of AUM but advantage of PE ownership is the deal is delivered rather than taking many months through a bid for a listed company. Roll forward 2-3 years of growth and it will be good value for NWG.

NatWest is paying £2.7bn for Evelyn partners who manage £69bn AUM.

That is 3.9% of AUM.

QLT equity is trading about 1.8% of AUM. NatWest was said to be looking at QLT a year ago…..I wonder why they paid much more for a smaller player?

They need a new CEO before they have something exciting to announce. Fortunately it looks like the results for 2025 and 2026 will be rather boring…..hoping 2027 will be transformational

Sparz - dont blame you.

Wait and see what the Q3 update looks like and you can always buy back in. There is a fear of a market correction in the US which will inevitably hit emerging markets hard. So time out of the market is not necessarily a bad thing.

They usually allow attendees to post questions in addition to the analysts they allow to ask in person.

What would posters here like to ask most?

I expect these results will be used to reconfirm or even raise the $80bn revenue target for 2030….after GSK did so well after it hiked its target earlier this week.

They have to get the money together to meet their investment pledges of $15bn to China and $50bn to Donald and that means more sales or there will be lower rewards for shareholders like us.

The next FTSE250 reshuffle will be upon us shortly, with a provisional list (CVSG is nailed on to enter as it is at the midpoint of the 250) in three weeks time and taking effect in early March..

We know that the AUM rose strongly during H1, the results will give us an indication of how revenues are responding. The market will take a steer from management about how that will flow into increased revenues and a lower expense ratio…..I would not be surprised by a statement that they expect to exceed market expectations for the FY….and then we will see whether the SP has got ahead of itself or not.