We would love to hear your thoughts about our site and services, please take our survey here.
The adverts by claims management companies have started to appear for Quilter….
Once there are significant complaint numbers, the company cannot make offers before the Ombudman referral time kicks in….with a min £750 cost to the company for each case….and many more costs of investigation before there is any thought of compensation….The industry needs a solution to stop this spiralling out of hand for everyone.
The bigger problem may be how the company deals with the Partners many of whom bought books of business from other agents with expected cash flows and those may now be cut and reduce the value of the businesses they run. If SJP mishandle the partners there will be litigation galore and it could sink SJP as a business.
It seems like a one way bet at the moment….every day another 1-3% comes off the price.
DB updated several insurers today, but only reflecting recent market movements and keeping them at hold….so not really indicating any strong + or - conviction.
It will move the broker average up….which always helps but not really informative.
If I recall correctly from the earnings call the company was saying Q3….There has been no indication of a priority review from EMA so my guesstimate is the process runs through against a standard timeline.
The published process is 210 days for CHMP to give a scientific opinion and then there is the European Commission approval 67 days later, which is a total of 277 working days approx 14 months (with a few public holidays). So that would be August, although that is a peak holiday period so it may be September.
~The market opportunity was shown as 3x US, JP is the same as the US…which is why 2025 should be so much better than 2024.
They have proven good judges of what to buy…..I prefer growing the business over a share buy back it seems a more positive use of the company resources. Hope this is another good one.
Elsewhere Nerd of Steel did say he would be back…..apparently he has been doing very well on a 3x geared Nvidia ETF….so no regrets.
FWIW there is something in the charting spotting patterns, but unless it can be corroborated with actual trading data / events to confirm the cause of the market behaviour I don’t have any belief in it.
As an example (happened in the last two weeks) I have a share that a chartist declared had a death cross (a very bad thing) - the share proceded to gain 30% in the following week. There has clearly been a change in sentiment, but it was not because of the death cross…..The falls leading to the death cross and the subsequent rally occurred with no company specific information and some adverse geo-politics. In my view there was no reason to support the death cross assessment and it proved an unreliable indicator. I am sure there are also lots of affirmed cases cited by chart followers…..but that does not make it reliable imho..
Can’t see what is going to cause this to go much higher….it seems to be hitting resistance around 230.
Most of today’s fall is the dividend coming out, but that 3m shareprice chart is truly horrible, down 20% already this year…..I do wonder what will stop the decline and will this happen before is goes below 100p which if it happens should surely mean Bird’s time is up.
The SP chart suggests no end in sight for the decline.
Until the remediation is scoped and the reputational effects on clients / partners / staff can be ascertained there can be no recovery….the only thing that is guaranteed is that it will overshoot on the downside…..only the brave/foolish will buy this year.
Yes, I have been following this company for some time……
….your points about the needs driving the value of the tests are well made…it is just astonishing that the company has had so little commercial success to date…..which is why I and many others are sitting on substantial losses.
There is still significant risk that this company is sold cheaply or no bidder emerges and it folds. Sorry if that conflicts with your view of the prospects.
Swanley, if I understand correctly you the down trend is not as strong as it was and there may be signs of a change coming…..can you tell if that will be a flat period or sharp up and what are the chances that the down trend will re-establish itself as the dominant direction?
Stargate….that sounds like a positive thing….does your crystal ball have a forecast?
14 March just crept over 30%…..some delicate discussions should be underway to determine what has to be offered to get to 50%. I suspect £10 is about the maximum KKR has in mind….but that may still be light.
Not sure RENX has any capability to engage with regulatory powers outside the US which has been their focus…..and they cant afford to which is where a licensing deal / takeover makes sense if this product is viable, it will have application in most populations, particularly the fatter western populations and the mass populations in China and India where there is still a lot of obesity caused by poor diet rather than over consumption.
We know roughly what the pipeline news will be this year and the in-market China sales. Unknowns are how successful Takeda will be ex-China and whether Sovlep will attract a partner paying a decent upfront fee.
Beyond that there are potential corporate actions to sell / demerge the subsidiary businesses which is possible and whether CKHH wants a strategic M&A action which has appeared unlikely in the past. CKHHs need to monetize its investment in HCM is likely low, it reports on Thursday next week.
What does seem clear is that HCM does not appear to need to raise any further equity finance. Indeed it looks increasingly likely that it already has surplus capital but it is unlikely to return any of that to SH before 2027.
With the above in mind, I would think HCM should become less volatile and more news driven but what do I know.
At the risk of being contradicted by the market, the initial profit taking that caused a retreat below 100p seems to have been overcome and there seems to be more support to sustain the SP above 100.
As mentioned in earlier posts, I expect to see 20p added over the year, and I suspect this will be in steps with the HY and FY numbers. Of course a market movement could override this expectation but the annuity market seems to be set fair at the moment.
They paid out 100% of what they earned in dividend and buy back…..last two years they have bought 3.6bn x2 and it has done them no favours….
Pru needs to up its dividend rather than BB as it pays a low dividend - if it were a UK Life Office we would expect 70p for an £8 share price….they say there is growth, then invest in the business and pay better dividends to shareholders to see the share price rise.