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Results today NBP +33% to US$4bn driven by HK
Operating profit US$6.2bn
Dividend +5%
Will Pru better these results?
The astrologers/chartists have got this one badly wrong…..apparently there was a ‘death cross’ at the end of Feb with the ADRs around $15…..that is said to be a very bad sign….
Maybe there will be some news that hopes to explain this weeks exuberance…or more likely there wont.
Davey will be kicking himself if he really did sell up.
There may well be some contagion with other businesses but STJ thought itself the biggest and the best and it incentivised /rewarded the greediest.
The salesmen and supporting staff where I worked always wanted to copy the STJ schemes and compliance/HR had to stop them implementing the worst aspects.
There will be self-justified reasons to continue charging for ongoing advice when it was not received - the client did not respond, the client was told the fee etc.
Let’s be honest about ongoing advice - for most people unless there is a life event a three or even 5 year review is ok. And for most investments performance will vary around the average. Managed portfolios where the investment advisory firm can change investment funds within the overall aim of the client and contact with the client to check there is no major change is good enough for most clients and should carry minimal cost.
And Nasdaq has moved to a £3 equivalent……
All those inexplicable angst inducing falls after the FDA approval near wiped out in a few days of without any new information.
Innovent has moved sharply up too, but Beigene/Junshi much less.
It was a late late show in HK with it only really moving up towards the end of the day.
The UK and US pre-market seem to be taking it a little further today.
FOMO seems to have taken hold.
These rapid changes in value help no-one and only convince me that this is a long term buy and hold proposition….the future seems more certain.
CKHH reports on 21 March….I am not expected them to make any announcements re Hutchmed, but some more acknowledgement within their results pack would be a start.
Abandon ship!
The dead cat bounced but was not brought back to life.
This is now sinking gradually lower and I suspect Porsche is rightly predicting the SP starting with a 3.
This is only getting worse for the next 18m, with a recovery only starting in 2027.
Expecting some broker upgrades this week before the analysts have to focus on Pru/ PHNX/MNG
I suppose it relates to statements at the Party get together…overall I dont like these no news movements, they can easily be reversed.
For me, the next important piece of news will be the Q1 24 sales made by Takeda in the US.
Nov/Dec was $15m, I am hoping for building momentum with $30m in Jan-Mar and that they can build this up to $50m per quarter by the end of the year, giving in-market sales of around $150m which would generate a royalty to HCM of $20m plus other manufacturing and support charges. It was interesting that the EU market is considerable larger than the US (although the pricing may be lower when that is determined), hence approval by EMA is also to be eagerly awaited, hopefully there will be meaningful EU sales later this year.
And the proceeds to the previous owners of the vet practices…
Got to pay for Head Office somehow…the HQ people will earn way more than the vets.
Some stronger results coming through…today’s update is helpful, but the range is wide…room for some assumption changes/provisions but the positive improvement is there for all to see.
Sadly RSA seems to be limping towards becoming a basket case.
AIA reports on Thursday (after HK close)….Q3 showed positive progress with value of new business ahead 35% on 2022 and China up 20% in Q3.
It will be interesting to see what AIA reports…but those figures dont merit the hammering Pru and AIA share prices have taken…
Who would have thought:
1 people take their pets to a local vet
2 the vets will copy the practices of private healthcare and private dentistry
3 healthcare no longer tolerates one man bands/small practices which is where the cranks reside
4 consolidation leads to concentrations (4 but perhaps 3 mobile networks are enough? So why concerned about 6 vet groups).
5 there are now secondary referral units akin to private hospitals…these provide much more specialist pet healthcare and are £££ to build, staff and maintain.
The CMA seems to be talking up its enforcement / remediation role…but I am not sure what they are going to be able to do beyond making vets tell customers they can buy services elsewhere and they may be cheaper (but that will involve more effort by the customer and delays in administering medication so I Don’t expect a great change in customer behaviour).
Today would appear to be a buying opportunity for those that expect modest CMA recommendations.
The Q4 update was really positive, but the SP has slipped back recently.
Tempted to acquire some more in the mid 30s this week as I suspect it will bounce up on results in early April.
It touched $60 last week….could not hold it but could still go higher.
This was 100p in 2019 and 110p in 2021……just think of the progress that has been achieved since then……
They are adding 20-30p per annum for the next few years to the shareholder value and paying out 3p growing to 6p in 6 years….the additional value should mostly flow to the SP.
Add 25p for 4 years and this is £2/share…..it is now makes sense from an investors perspective so I expect we will see a rapid re-rating during 2024 and then steady growth for the next few years….
DAB - agree….we can expect them to add 30p and more to the TNAV for the next 5-10 years just on UK business.
There is approx 100p of debt to repay….but all the additional value flows to Shareholders and most of it should be added to the SP.
Whatever price the Directors were holding out for last year is justified and they will add some more for any new discussions. I dont intend to sell any (except in GIA to move to ISA/SIPP wrapper).
Really excellent, far better than expected.
Hopefully the market will take note and look forward to value added for the next 5-10 years
I am expecting good results and an open above 90. Although I am doubtful it will be able to cling on.