Member Info for Jatw

PTB - I think Trump does not care and he moves quickly to his next target/‘win’.

What will be next?

Quitting NATO? (Unless that ends Europe purchase of US weapons)

Snubbing King Charles? (Easy win)

Panama? (Control the canal)

Cuba? (Just annex it and add it to Florida)

Back to tariff wars with China for some perceived infraction of trade?

With friends like him who needs enemies.

Falling on a strong up day for the market is unfortunate - can the Directors turn it around with their investor meeting?

I asked what are the largest health related M&A deals in China from 2025/26.

The response is below. Interestingly while there is plenty of portfolio activity involving multinationals, there is little internal consolidation. That could change as Chinese biopharma become cash generative and no longer need to raise money, their thoughts will turn to what to do with it (and in the short term it is likely to be empire building rather than shareholder returns.

In 2025 and early 2026, the Chinese healthcare M&A and licensing landscape was dominated by record-breaking out-licensing deals to multinational corporations (MNCs), with oncology, antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs), and metabolic diseases (GLP-1s) driving the largest transactions. China-originated innovation accounted for 40% of all in-licensed assets by global pharma in 2025.

Largest Health-Related Deals in 2025–2026

GSK / Hengrui Pharma (July 2025): The largest deal, featuring a $500m upfront payment and a total potential value of up to $12 billion. The agreement spans 12 oncology, immunology, and respiratory programs, including a PDE3/4 inhibitor.

Pfizer / 3SBio (May 2025): Pfizer committed up to $6 billion (including a record-setting $1.25 billion upfront payment) for ex-China rights to 3SBio’s PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody, SSGJ-707.

AstraZeneca / CSPC Pharmaceutical (June 2025): A major AI-driven drug discovery alliance valued at over $5 billion, focusing on preclinical cancer candidates.

Novartis / Argo Biopharmaceutical (Sept 2025): A deal potentially worth up to $5.36 billion ($160m upfront) for global rights (ex-greater China) to three cardiovascular pipeline assets.

AstraZeneca / Harbour BioMed (March 2025): An alliance valued at up to $4.575 billion for advanced cancer therapeutic candidates.

Verdiva Bio / Sciwind Biosciences (Jan 2025): A metabolic disease deal, with milestones potentially exceeding $2.4 billion for GLP-1 analogue ecnoglutide.

2025-2026 Key Trends in China Healthcare M&A

Surging Deal Value: China's out-licensing activity hit a record $135.6 billion in total deal value in 2025.

Dominance of ADCs and Oncology: Antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) and radiopharmaceuticals experienced more than 300% and 65% increases in transaction activity, respectively, between 2019 and 2025.

MNC Strategic Divestment: Multinationals are restructuring their portfolios in China, with companies like Roche transferring mature products to local investors (e.g., the acquisition of Rocephin rights by Hasten).

High Upfront Payments: The average upfront payments for Chinese assets hit a record $7 billion in 2025, highlighting the urgency of MNCs to replenish their pipelines.

Regulatory Changes: Despite geopolitical tensions, 2025 saw a 79% increase in outbound transaction values within the Chinese healthcare sector.

The momentum continued into 2026, with an estimated $140-160B in global M&A deal value expected as big pharma seeks to diversify pipelines before the 203

Pump today, dump tomorrow and enjoy Easter.

HCM currently up 3.5% in HK, but that trails the other Biotechs I follow that are between 6% and 11% up.

Fear of Missing Out is greater that Fear of Losing Everything it would seem.

Movement is attributed to optimism about the Iran war and China getting some ships through….no specific sector news.

Expect mid 220s in London today and then it may depend on what Trump says in his address to the nation.

The analyst questions will be interesting at the presentation demonstrating where they are looking for issues/reassurance

The only negative I read was a very modest reduction in gross margin which may be behind today’s fall - hard to see the 18% rise in sales post year end is below expectations but when transformation is happening it is hard to gauge what the new normal should be.

The upside of current weakness is that more shares are included in the buy back.

Bought some more recently in hope that strong results tomorrow will remind the market of the value here. Well off its highs due to the war impact, but probably not overly affected.

So many deals are being done and fantastic deal sizes reported.

…..surely HCM will find a partner for ATTC assuming it is not a dud (or a bid for the whole company)

and Sovleplenib (when approved in China) or perhaps better a set of blood cancer products.

Amones - some other companies had large gains in HK (4-8%) on Friday that HCM did not…..so I expect today HCM is playing catch up….there is no news for HCM today.

CK Life Sciences is completely separate, apart from commonality of owners.

I really dont understand why CK had such separated life sciences and Hutchmed businesses.

Life Sciences is 45% owned by CKH and 29% by Li Ka-Shing foundation and is valued at about 30% of Hutchmed.

It has done two corporate actions recently

1 licence the vaccine portfolio to a US entity (Transcode) it has a 10% equity stake but a much larger convertible debt stake that would give it control if exercised

2 create HK holding companies for its vaccines - this makes a separate listing or sale possible

It would be easy enough to engineer the sale of the oncology portfolio from life sciences to Hutchmed (or more likely if LS needs cash to develop cancer vaccines, it makes a JV with HCM investing some of its cash pile).

CKHH continues to trade at a significant discount to the sum of the parts and has said it is continuing with significant value realising transactions (completed the 3Vodafone UK JV, completed sale of UK Rails, selling UK Power Networks, ongoing discussion to sell Ports division, possible listing of Retail and Telecom assets)…..HCM is still listed within ‘other investments’ in their accounts…..no indication of any change coming soon,

A number of HK Listed chinese pharma have transitioned to profit making in the last year with corresponding gains in their share prices. Some of these companies are much younger than Hutchmed but have brighter prospects…..I am not going to sell HCM, but new money is going to those companies

Good that the management team is organised and putting the update meeting out in advance of the market update next week.

I expect many questions will focus on the potential effects of the Iran combat operation and the attendant disruption to supply chains and cost pressures……I doubt it will have a material effect on sales, but margins may suffer a downward blip.

Anyway looking forward to hearing how the growth story is going - the digital H&H should be roaring ahead…..also not expecting a announcement on M&A, but some indication that we can expect something soon would be helpful.

The updates always read well and give just enough hope that next time it will be different, but the fundamental issue remains low volume of sales and the gross margin is dwarfed by the administration expenses. The business is still burning approaching $1m a month and has limited cash available…..so more funding will be required.

The providers of that funding are effectively taking control due to the dilution effect of new raises.

If this company ever gets to be cash flow positive at an operational level then its fortunes may change and it may be worth buying as an investment…..at present it is a speculators gamble and a short term one at that.

The addressable market of 10m Americans with coverage is the reason I remain, but not buying until sales pick up.

I have to think there is something fundamentally wrong with how this test/system is being sold to doctors / health systems…..

Clearly still some buyers out there….but this is now a penny stock amongst the penny stocks.

It will be amazing if they make it to the end of the year.

Yes, the N and A will move to the main board.

In the last year the N are up 15% and A down 8%. This is a significant narrowing of the discount.

Could be due to IHT focused funds selling mostly the A shares, and the buy back focused on the N shares.

Dual share classes are very much the minority now, in fact quite a rarity……I can see the next move being to unify the classes by issuing a new share to both shareholders in slightly different allocation rates….in which case may the valuation gap continue to close.

Now scheduled for 28 April.

There has been a significant change in the gap between the A and N shares over the last year. (A down 8%, B up 15%)…..maybe some selling of the As in anticipation of leaving AIM and losing the IHT benefit, but also the buy back of the N shares.

Nothing announced on moving to the main board……as they are not raising new money there is no reason why the volatile market conditions should impede the move…..so still expected in Q2.

Big Pharma is very willing to buy into early stage assets and new technologies.

There does seem to be a shift towards earlier stage, less mature products with lower upfront costs but higher development costs. A good deal for both sides balances out the risk/rewards fairly……just based on past deals…

AZ got control of Savolitinib early, but have seemingly preferred other products.

Eli Lilly gave up control of Fruquintinib in favour of partnering with Innovent

Takeda seems to have a decent deal buying a proven product that will generate significant margin for them.

The Epizyme/Ipsen deal for Tazverik is now a write off

Based on the above HCMs track record is very mixed when it comes to doing deals.

Let’s hope they get good partners for ATTC and their heme portfolio.

I dont see these remedies as particularly harmful….they amount to more admin that the larger groups will implement without much effort. They have pricing power and will increase charges slightly to cover the additional costs, the smaller practices will continue to sell out to the larger chains….

What will be generally useful is the ability to take the prescription on line - but if the prescription fee is currently rolled into the consultation / medication costs, it will just encourage the fee to be split out and overall costs to rise - a bit like the variety of fees that restaurants now seem to be applying….breaking the costs down does not change them….having more parties involved in the chain almost always increases costs in the long term.

Pru a surprising riser today when the market is well down….suggests the market likes the results and direction of travel even when faced with an oil crisis.

Forget a Pru merger with a UK listed company (unless you are thinking of M&G), Pru now lives in HK. A large Asia based Bank or Insurer is a better bet…..but it is a conservative area of the world so dont expect a hostile bid and a large bid premium.

Best to invest in Pru for steady returns and exposure to Asia and Africa