Member Info for Jatw

Often share prices do quite well after a rights issue as the pressing need for funding has receded somewhat.

The pre-revenue nature of Faron means that there is still a question of whether the raise is sufficient to generate a commercial business - if not expect to be back in this position at some point in the future when most of the cash has been burned.

Key future points in time are the Phase II/III data read outs, the acceptance of the new drug marketing application by key regulators (FDA / EMA) and then product approval by those regulators - each one will be a meaningful share price event.

Then there is the unknowable timing of a licensing deal or takeover.

It seems HCM is one of my stocks that is less sensitive to the Iran crisis. Not wholly immune, but it would appear the immediate reaction is lower than others.

Maybe just a reflection that the current low valuation has less scope to fall than others.

Cash is king at the moment, so HCM is in a strong position for small deals, however it can easily be outbid by big pharma. I think their best bet will be to look for deals in china with a founder with a reasonably large stake who wants to monetize some of their holding and retain a reduce stake in a larger entity (which probably sits well with CKHH approach too).

The presentation has the feeling of laying foundations…..a higher average AUM and momentum should enhance AM results in 26.

Moving the PruFund new business to fee based revenue solves one of the historic issues with WP business that the Shareholder has to wait for the policy to be claimed before getting most of its reward. This will now be spread across the years the policy is in-force 10-15bps equates to 50-75m reliable revenue. (The CSM does not grow so much so will not release as much in the future).

Of course there is high volatility in the short to medium term as the Gulf crisis progresses.

MNG being set up for sustainable and decent shareholder returns.

All you need to do it see the CEO video and observe there are no comparatives with 2024 to know that 2025 was not an improvement.

If you can get a gig like this and earn nil cost options worth £1m/£0.5m.

Still, HCM holding up reasonably well in this market fretting about war and AI….hopefully HCM sits out the drama, but gets an uplift on the relief rally when it is over.

I’ll be back…..

Two things to watch - firstly the asset management result….that is where LGEN seemed to disappoint most.

MNG is a couple of years into a cost reduction programme and has been improving performance of its funds….it improved fund flows in H1…more of the same plus the market rise in H2 should see a significant uplift in revenue which will flow to the bottom line….that may be partly offset by mark to market losses on the insurance business assets.

The recent run means the price movement risk is on the downside…but with the Japanese as buyers a fall should be seen as a buying opportunity,

A couple of thoughts on the balance sheet

If HCM has the licence fee on its balance sheet it is likely to.be written down. They were building a Heme sales team, that will be on hold or only focused on future product launches - a short term unproductive part of the cost base….

I think there is a largish tax liability to pay on the SHPL disposal gain (other liabilities significantly higher)

Interest and other finance income has exceeded operating profit in 2024 and 2025….they need an additional 100m in oncology sales to be truly profitable before finance.

BoA revised its valuation for the ADS to $21 which is approx £3

Ipsen has announced the closure of the symphony 1 trial due to the emerging adverse event profile

There was no mention of China or HCM in the announcement but it is v unlikely HCM could continue with a China study unless there is a strong genetic driver of the issues detected.

No material effect on revenues so far….but a disappointing event

I thought the meeting ran smoothly and Johnny Cheng led the team effectively….I can see him becoming CEO by default.

I am not sold on the in licensing idea, as a smallish participant they are not likely to be able to compete against larger players…..but M&A with a chinese developer to commercialise a combined pipeline could work better.

Out licensing is definitely on their agenda….but if they get $3-400m from a deal (either in cash or development) what are they going to do with it? Chinese companies have signed deals worth 2bn already this year…so this is a hot market, they will have good chance for deals on Sovlep and ATTC candidate….the design of the deal will be important.

They certainly stress the huge target markets for ATTC assessment…at the moment they dont really know what the prime targets will be. They do need to be careful in choosing a partner or they could find their products sidelined like Savo…..AZ already has DXD set up to take over from Tagrisso….so they may not need another major solid tumour treatment for a decade….

Anyway the SP rose on the day after the presentation which is positive (although a similar level of change was seen in other HK listings). I suspect the share price will rise strongly by the end of 2027, this year it might be more random event driven (eg new licensing agreements) where 2027 may be more on sales growth.

No nasty surprises in the results, positive they are profitable without the SHPL divestment

Still a long game being played here. 2026 should see several new china approvals and global NDAs for Savolitinib.

2027 is when there should be strong revenue growth.

They are teasing us with the potential for an ATTC deal later in the year.

Positive that the ITP NDA was accepted in February (not previously announced)…hopeful that will lead to approval late in 2026 and significant new revenue in 2027,

An ATTC deal could drive the SP upward later this year, but I think 2027 will be a year of larger gains……accumulate at these levels.

It will be a buy….but short term will be volatile…..when the Iran war eases I will be buying more Aviva.

QLT produced good results (apparently exceeding expectations), but the SP is down when many life/wealth manager shares are up today…..not sure what they need to do better.

As promised in past presentations, HCM has initiated testing of a second payload on ATTC, it promised one in H1 and the third in H2 2026.

Glad to see this is earlier in H1 and we can expect further details of the ATTC platform investment in tomorrow’s results.

China biotech seems to be particularly badly affected by the Gulf war…..I cant think why it would affect them directly, unless it is markets thinking that US China relations are heading for further trouble…..Trump;s gaze may return to China when he is bored with Iran.

My discretionary fund manager told me to sell and go to other opportunities shortly after the bid…..I have been treating Just like a cash holding for several months…..I suspected we might get a buying opportunity at better levels and it seems to be approaching rapidly….selling today at 217…..then seeing what happens….will likely drip feed into a tracker for the everything bounce when the war effects fade.

A good day for the share Buy Back.

It will be interesting to see how the forecasts develop this year.

I expect the RCC F+S regimen will be approved shortly (a bit disappointed it has not already been given the combo already has an approval, albeit provisional) and will go on to be successful in China and then Takeda will take forward globally for a 2028 launch (may not be S, but another similar compound).

AZ should complete the Saffron study and submit NDA in the US with approval in H1 27.

Sovleplenib could be approved in China early in 27. This is a large market and all will belong to Hutchmed, so this is a big deal and could lead to a significant licensing deal.

Then there is the ATTC platform - other companies have struck multi candidate development deals, Hutchmed could do this and probably should if it gets the opportunity…..the deals have been done at an early stage which reduces the upfront payment but de-risks the costs of development……

Plenty for the analysts and partners to get their teeth into….and that is before Hutchmed may buy in some candidates.

All asset managers have had strong results Jupiter was the latest and there have been 2 bids (Schröder and Janus Henderson).

I expect the Asset Manager has had a good year and the insurance operations a steady year meaning there should be some spare cash to raise the dividend by the 2% expected and then either redeem some more debt or make a buyback. We dont have the benefit of an AUM update so we dont know how good the AM results will be. I expect the market has largely incorporated this expectation into the mcap so the risk is to the downside if there are any cautious comments…….

Increase in volatility recently….mainly AI and private credit fear stories.

Since results they have been +5, -10,+5,-5 makes little sense to me, but under 100 these will considered oversold by many.

An unusual movement in the N shares today +8% with the A shares only up 1%.

I wonder if there is an announcement coming about unifying the share classes? (Note this does not mean they will have the same value - what happened with Schroders was that a new share classes/holding company was created and the new shares were allocated to voting and non voting shares based on historic % of the market cap so the voting shares got an enhanced allocation…..