Member Info for Jatw

I expect the larger buy backs are being negotiated off market with the institutions including Slater. I would not be surprised if they’re % holdings were down slightly but not enough to trigger an RNS - they would be falling anyway with the new shares issued.

I wonder what the long term implications are of the passing of one of the key shareholders and their shares now being operated by a Trust.

Over time, the trustees must be open to realising some of their asset to diversify their income stream or invest more in their charitable objectives…..may that occurs when the second major shareholder passes.

Another ex-Pru/M&G er here.

As long as the dividend rises then the locked in yield from past purchases continues to be good.

If the market moves from a mostly dividend to capital appreciation and lower dividend we should not really complain.

What matters more is where you put new money and whether that generates the risk adjusted return you want from both capital and income.. …speaking personally I have always diversified my holdings investing the dividends elsewhere. I still have what most people would call an excessive allocation to Pru and MNG which brings a lot of risk should we experience a new market crash as they will be disproportionately affected, but I trust their history as well managed institutions.

At the moment they are winners that should be run for longer.

There are opportunities for mis-pricing in London given the thin volumes relative to NY and HK.

There is a risk that NY does not take up the price set by HK and it falls back, but a buy in London this morning could be in profit this afternoon…….I would hazard it is more likely in profit this time next year…..

Trading update likely 22/23 Jan (22 last year).

Can’t see it being anything other than blockbuster results…..with markets supporting strong growth in AUM before net new business additions.

I have invested twice in IPSEN recently and there has been a 15% uplift in 2026.

There is a founding family with 2 siblings holding 26% each, one of them recently passed away and his shares are now in a charitable foundation. I feel the family ties are loosening and a foundation will want to diversify its assets and income stream leading to a sale transaction in due course. In the meantime, the business seems to be going from strength to strength (like HCM it divested its consumer healthcare business to invest in its pipeline). It owns Tazverik and is on the look out for licensing deals. Who knows maybe the Li’s and the Beaufort will make another licence deal.

If anyone wants to follow / comment on IPSEN I will be on board (there is a page).

Looks to me like todays 5% gain could be traders looking for a read across from the ASHM and SDR updates which both confirmed strong AUM growth.

Ianfm - the daily volume is already 5x the last 3m average…..a bit more than small trades at play.

SDR also highlighted strong growth in AUM which has fed through to ABDN by the looks of it…

The spreads are outrageous at times on AIM currently 6.5%……it will compress this afternoon once the US opens.

The last US price was 227p and the last HK price was 228p, yet London is 210/225p

Expecting 222-225 when the US opens

How many other companies have this situation (and it turns out well).

Unless it is reversing something he should not have done (also bad), it is not a good look.

Hopefully he buys a lot after the next results/ bonus payments.

Two very positive TUs from competitors today.

Both show strong AUM growth in Q4 driven by inflows and market gains……

SDR also reports good cost control.

ASHM jumped 10% and SDR 8%.

MNG has run up its SP so may not get a similar reaction to good results…..but these surely point to a decent set of FY numbers coming up in March.

Large profitable sale incoming. CKI has 65% of the rail leasing company that could be sold for £4bn. Realising a profit of around £1bn.

The 8% bump is AUM is very welcome (before any Venezuela revaluations). What is really exciting is the level of inflows which was 5-6% of the opening AUM. This is a real sea-change in investor sentiment towards the types of funds offered by ASHM.

A big bounce could be coming if the recent trend continues into 2026. ASHM needs the US to go sideways to encourage more EM investment. A big fall in the US is bad for everyone, a further big rise in the US seems implausible so modest / sideways US is both quite likely and good for ASHM.

While fee income will be up in Q4, it will be marginal for the HY comparisons….more significant for the FY results in August. If fee income rises 10-20% it will do wonders for the bottom line.

1pencil,

Hutchmed provided a net profitability guarantee for three years subject to a maximum compensation of US$95m. I think HCM will have received the full cash proceeds, but may need to hold a provision of up to $95m which will be reviewed and adjusted each year (depending on how it needs to be calculated) until the end of 2028 when it will expire.

Depending on the detailed accounting / tax rules for this we may see the 95m held separately as a provision or if no compensation is expected because of good 2025 trading and positive forecasts there may just be a note or a contingent liability in the accounts.

The Balance Sheet should always show the best estimate of the net position (proceeds less expected liability).

Next events:

Takeda sales 29 Jan (continued Fruzaqla growth)

AZ sales 12 Feb (will the effect of SACHI be evident?)

Hutchmed results around end of Feb

Hoping the Frusica-2 NDA will be approved before the HCM results.

The rotating doors between HSBC and Pru continue to spin.

The appointment of Douglas Flint is a fair one, but will be criticised by those expecting Pru to become more Asia/Africa oriented and gradually replacing its western Board members with Asian/African Directors as part of encouraging Asian/african investors to own more of Pru.

Late Jan will coincide with transfer from AIM to the main board and from there to the FTSE250 at the next reshuffle.

There are guaranteed buyers but whether that will translate into a higher price we will need to wait and see. It should bring more analysts to provide coverage and over time change the shareholder base.

A nice 5% gain in HK (although most Bios were up and the tracking index was up 4%)

At some point sentiment is going to change for HCM….the NDAs are piling up and there should be demonstrable revenue growth in late 27 and into 28.

While the potential of ATTC is to be factored in….

Good news on the second indication with NDA now expected in Q2.

The resubmission for ITP should be on a similar timescale and there will be some shared elements in their approval (manufacturing and formulation).

Approval for both in mid 27?

There are no numbers of patients in the RNS, but the internet suggests about 10k new patients pa in China. Incidence is 3x outside Asia. ITP is a much bigger target market but wAIHA may be a profitable niche add on globally.

Up 10% since my mid December post…..still lots of upside potential with the Rand also strengthening against the pound to boost the gain.

Given how bombed out this share has been there is still plenty of potential for gains.

There is a useful presentation on the Jackson Investors website that explains the deal in more detail.

TPG is investing 500m equity and granting 150m possibly 300m of stock to JXN in return it will get to manage 12bn at 50bps from year 3 to 15. JXN is said to expect higher yield assets for the billions to be managed by TPG.

It seems to align with other Insurance/Asset Management deals in the form - ie equity stake for a mandate. Someways short of M&A, possibly similar to the deal Pru struck with Apollo ahead of the demerger,