Member Info for Jatw

ASH has the final ESLIM01 analysis and was said to be an important meeting to bring Sovlep to global attention and prospective out licence negotiations.

ESMO Asia - the new compound A87 does not feature in the corporate presentation and does not appear to be ATTC, but presumably they think it has potential to be significant or why make it the top item.

Frusica-2 is presented….approval cannot be far away, Frusica -1 gained approval in 7 months and it is already 5 months since submission was accepted.

There are some PDAC results for metastatic patients (poor prognoses) but this does not appear to be the main read-out of results.

Interestingly there is no presentation of the two NDA. Candidates on the near term catalyst list (fanregratinib and Savo for GC)

Labour is good for financial planning and tax advisors

There may well be a large buffer of capital, but it may not necessarily be cash that can be distributed.

A lot of MNGs capital is the expected future transfers from the WP fund discounted to today…..a lot of value embedded in the business but not accessible…..they need growth in fee income in the asset manager which drops straight into profit and cash….

The MNG dividend is maxed out without some growth…..but is much safer than some other high yield shares..

But if you think about the Life Insurance Stress Tests they all passed this week, consider what the public finances would look like under the stress imagined (stocks down 30%, property down 30%, …..) it would make tomorrows budget look easy….and the Tsunami of govt problems (mass defaults, public unrest….) would make the insurance industry a target (as one of the few areas with assets) and a further stress being applied with each further damaging set of consequences……the stress test is a paper based exercise and will not predict what will happen should the ideas in the test come to pass.

Marty - I have changed my mind on the SP…..it will be £10.00 in 2026…

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… (following a 50-1 consolidation to make the ADS equal one UK share)

The Life Insurance Stress Test results show how in isolation the Life Cos are resilient…..of course what the real economy and govt finances would look like if the stress test occurred would themselves create significant other problems. Fingers crossed the budget does not push to hard in that direction.

Meet their targets and show growth in sales has momentum and it could be 20p.

In my view this will either be overtaken by other developments (and go to zero), or there will be a proven level of adoption which will take root and then if there is an inflexion point such that the market feels it has to have mass adoption it could rocket.

What is certain is that the market will front run which of these outcomes is more likely. At the moment it appears zero is winning, but that could all change and change rapidly.

That sounds like I am sitting on the fence, but that is because I see this stock as a massive gamble and not an investment. You pay your money and take your chances.

Just came out OK, but the Partnership element squeaked through…..a good job it is not that large.

PIC and Rothesay came out best….they seem to carry a lot of capital (going for growth for their PE owners rather than to pay large dividends to shareholders - perhaps not what many commentators would expect of PE - but they seem to have got it right)

Then Victor may sell it……CKHH seems to be heading towards a breakup….todays story is of a HK/UK listing for AS Watson the group’s health and beauty retail empire (UK - Superdrug and the perfume shop).

Not pharma yet, but consolidation in Chinese financial services is gathering pace. Banks, brokerages, insurers.

Compared to many industries, US / European pharma is still quite diverse probably because it is still relatively easy to create a new pharma around a single drug candidate and then sell it for $$$ once it gets to the clinic, yes there are some mega cap stocks but there are plenty of mid range companies worth a few billion that are ripe for consolidation.

Two problems that HCM might face in M&A is that the mid tier of China Pharma contain a lot of founders that want to remain in charge and secondly what level of investment does CKHH want to make in an enlarged entity.

Victor Li has been packaging up its major operations and re-organising the group.

Energy consolidated Husky to Cenovus in Canada, stake will fall further as Cenovus takes on MEG

Telecoms - in market M&A Australia, UK now under control of other listed companies (TPG Telecom and Vodafone) and said to be doing an IPO of its Telecom holding company.

Retail - already has 25% owned by Temasek

Ports - ex-China sale being explored. China already listed as a REIT in Singapore.

HCM never made it to be its own division within CKHH always an investment / other.

If the ports deal or a telecom IPO goes through CKHH will be flush with cash ($19bn from the ports deal with another 6bn from a full UK telecom disposal to Vodafone)), it could take HCM private or support a large M&A deal for HCM….

Two events this week:

The Q3 trading update was rather flat YoY.

The rating agency upgrade to OMU and ZA as a govt is more positive. The company will be able to roll over debt at lower rates than expected and the capital position will benefit from generally better credit ratings in South Africa.

For UK shareholders we can look forward to a share price that includes a stronger rand as a tail wind rather than the headwind it has been.

If and it is quite a big if, the ZA govt can get its economy into a better shape, the future is looking much brighter for OMU as a company and as an investment proposition.

The answer from AZ Investor relations is no share split.

ADS holders will get one share for every 2 ADS and cash for one ADS if they hold an odd number.

I dont buy the licensing opportunity…..better to do full M&A within China. An all share merger of equals with another China developer would generate significant cost savings across the product lifecycle…..of course it is risky for managment as they could become the hunted

The rest of the year could be quite busy on the pipeline front:

Suru PDAC and Savo GC read outs

Fanregratinib and Savo GC NDAs

Also Frusica-2 approval can be expected early in 26 if not reported in 25 (most important for revenue in 2026).

While there are no dental groups listed in London, private dentistry is set for the CMA treatment.

Not sure what the Govt expects to achieve on value for money. NHS dentistry (or lack of) is the biggest factor driving the market in dentistry services….but the govt only provides funding for 25% of the population to see a dentist regularly…..

I suspect many remedies can be straight read across from VETS - re pricing transparency, ability to shop around for specialist referral services, shop around for products….and some local restrictions on market share (but this is an NHS failure).

The buy back programme is focused on these non-voting shares……should close the discount somewhat to the A shares

For me, it is the disparity between the NAV and SP that has led to the drop today.

The justification for a premium over NAV is that they WILL reinvest returns much better than the market. The premium got too big and now people have noticed and decided the gap is too large.

Many investment companies trade at a discount to NAV….this could go much lower, it is still fair value at £25.

Surufatinib read out on the PDAC study is the next known significant event and should be with us this year. They have not suggested it could be submitted as a registration result….but if it is strong enough they may be able to do it, more likely is it is given breakthrough status and allowed through quicker once a Ph3 trial is completed…….or the third option is that it is quietly forgotten (unlikely given the comments on the R&D call)

86% of clinicians said the test informed the treatment…..

So 14% of clinicians said the test did not inform treatment……these are the professionals that will dismiss the test and stick to their traditional methods…..unfortunately nay sayers tend to influence more people than the converts.

This test has proven to be a difficult sell to the medical profession……IMO RENX needs to encourage some negligence cases where the test was not used or was ignored or not used in line with the clinical guidelines, that will focus the minds of the Drs and insurers who commission and pay for the tests..

I think the market will only respond when it sees the promises validated by product approvals or commercial deals. It will then move very quickly.

Everything depends on efficacy, OS and PFS outcomes need to be better than current therapies to grab market share and justify a premium price. Lower levels of toxicity are advantageous if the therapy has similar OS.PFS but is not clearly better - lower side effect costs would allow reimbursement and wider adoption, but probably at a lower price than a more effective product.

Is he leaving?