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Should be steady as she goes….they talked up AM profit trend at the last results when they already had a good insight to Q1..

I don’t see a leap upwards just a resumption of the drift up, but any nasty surprises will result in a drop.

Finley - the FTSE100 is at all time highs…..but I think that reflects the largest companies that have very significant overseas earnings. I would seek out the companies reporting in USD…..if Reeves/ Bell get too much for them they will decamp to the US…..the UK oriented small cos will start to struggle…..

I would rather be sitting out a UK crisis of confidence with assets overseas…..and just wait out the government for more favourable capital taxes..

Yes, I forgot about the potential insourcing/M&A.

There is still a positive outcome (ie successfully adding a revenue stream…..but trials may take 2-3 years for this happen)

And the negative is they make a poor decision.

I am not sure what Tazverik is…..I think they paid $20m up front with potential of $100m on milestones. They must have invested quite a few more millions in the trials to date and have a couple of million in gross sales to show for it so far.

BTW Innovent reported HY numbers today. Sales grew from nearly 4bn RMB to nearly 6bn RMB. With IFRS profit moving from a 400m RMB loss to 800m RMB profit. Product revenue grew 39% with a chunky licence fee making much of the profit. Innovent has gone from 30 to 100HKD. There has been a pull back to 90 - I will accumulate a few more at these levels. If CKH wants to step back, they need to inject HCM into a successful competitor (like Innovent).

Decent dividend increase (inc forecast of double digit increases) and buy backs of USD1100m over 25/27 plus any india IPO proceeds.

Equity value about £10 (1,354 c per share). Which means any SP growth from here is about growth prospects.

With NBP at the bottom of the target range and lower than AIA they have scope to further improve growth.

It will not impact the results tomorrow….more of a mood depressor, it is not a poison pill.

Pru seemed to get excited by the prospect of listing the Indian asset management JV and thought they might try their luck across their Asset Management operations. It just means Pru wanted a price higher than anyone was prepared to go….even if they were wrong by $1bn, that is still a relatively small component of market cap…about 3% which is nothing compared to the movements we have experienced in the last few years.

The market has reacted positively to today’s trading update.

That must come from the improved operational results, although I cant for the life of me think of a good reason to publish a range of 20% on the outcome.

My hunch would be that the results will be toward the lower end to tuck away something for the future.

Anyway glad to be back at break even after what has been a disappointing spell.

My rationale for buying OMU is that it gives access to a wider African economy which should (if the politics can be minimised) be showing strong growth. Although GDP/capita is the real measure of whether the economies are making progress. When they do I see OMU and other financials being at the front of gains.

Positive future

Savo gets approval and AZ actively promotes the Tagrisso+Savo treatments

Fruq maintains a strong position for 5 years

Sovlep is approved and makes $$$ sales in China and then globally

ATTC works and HCM signed a $$$ collaboration deal for global development of a programme of work, products approved in 3-5 years.

Negative future

Savo is approved but AZ does not push it and then lets DXD / other treatments supersede

Fruq encounters significant competition forcing price cuts and loss of market share

Sovlep is not approved

ATTC does not bring candidates to market within 5 years

Each line is independent, so the actual will be somewhere between the two, but each line has significant value associated with it. To maximise value, I think CKH has to let the Savo /Sovlep approvals run their course, and so I don’t foresee a deal in the next two years, but if CKH get a good offer I would be very pleased to be wrong.

Dr Su would be young for CKH, so I am not sure they would recognise age as an impediment and would rate stability and a known quantity over an outsider.

However the Hutchmed board can have its own way with executive appointments and CKH notionally appoints a minority of Directors. Realistically they will need a new CFO in the not too distant future too.

HCM has got some strong partners Lilly, AZ and Takeda, but I think it should pursue a merger with another mainland/HK entity……there is some activity buying/selling royalty rights - Be One has sold its rights in an AMGEN product to Royalty Pharma for USD 850m potentially rising to 950m - which presents a way out of the web of partnerships should a partner not want to have an interest in others drugs (but that does not seem to bother some).

Time for some new and younger blood.

Johnny Chen is appointed interim and it rarely follows that the CFO makes a good CEO.

I think it unlikely that Dr Su (who is already 70) will return, in which case the Board needs to hire a new CEO and a new CSO.

Perhaps even time to take part in a merger to acquire new executives.

I see Wes Streeting has called off his meeting with Big Pharma about NHS drug pricing because they refused his offer.

Drug shortages/withdrawals are on the horizon for the UK….followed by fewer clinical trials and the decline of the UK life sciences sector…..(well maybe not for a while but it is not good look for the NHS to be bullying its suppliers to the detriment of the UK more widely).

Slater must be nearing the end of his buying.

I wonder what his objective is?

He must see value here, but what is the exit plan? He will find such a stake difficult to reduce without sending the price down significantly.

FWIW marketscreener provides an analysis of shareholder by country. This shows Japan at 1.85%.

Not sure of the data quality, but in the absence of RNS for Dai-Ichi’s progress this could be a source of further information

AIA reported a 14% increase in NBP alongside capital generation up 10%.

The company raised its dividend by 10%.

The company reported growth in 13 (of18) markets.

HK stood out with a rise of 24%.

Pru has a historic bias towards HK which bodes well for the results next Wednesday.

AIA has set a high bar as a comparator. For those wanting further details, these can be found on the AIA website or the HKEXnews website.

My smallest HK Biotech reported today - their shares have gone from 6 to 20 HKD this calendar year.

H1 Revenue +74% (value about 100USD)

IFRS loss down 86%

Mcap now around 40b HKD.

This is the type of revenue growth that HCM should be delivering but is not due to product set backs….

Any merger dynamic with such a company has changed. A year ago HCM was 2x Innocare in mcap, now they are .7

I will see how the market responds to these results tomorrow as there is a good chance Innocare is over valued. IMO HCM is still undervalued (see recent posts).

Eli Lilly showing how they will start to address DJTs demand for most favoured (developed) nation status by raising UK Mounjaro prices by up to 170%.

Big pharma is not going to take the hit.

Patients will pay the price.

I have looked into Imagene (previously Inmagene) where HCM outlicensed 4 products for development. The corporate presentation lists one product being actively developed. It is in Ph2 trials with Ph3 said to go into 2027. The data looks promising, so HCM could initiate China trials. Imagene itself has PE backers that have recently injected USD 75m as part of the merger with Ileana. The mcap is USD160m so they are very small and living in the hand to mouth phase. The shares should advance if their product gets to market. I feel it is still very early and speculative……but worth reviewing as their trials progress (eg a deal with HCM after P2 completion might happen and could be a catalyst for a big move, but maybe more likely after P3 in 2027).

I think one of the KPIs the board needs to monitor is the volume of trade in HK relative to the UK volume.

It is slowly ticking up (now approx 3%). The company needs to be on the radar of Asian investors and attract the volume of trade associated with AIA / PingAn to be considered Asian.

Hopefully this years recovery from HKD 60 to 106 will trigger some local interest.

That HK index is quite concentrated with the top 6 making up 55%.

HCM down in 20th place at 1.25% weighting.

There must be some really small companies in the bottom 10. Most of which will fail or be gobbled up.

History tells us it is the big fish that go on to get bigger and may be the best investments……hopefully HCM can get into the top 10 of this list (a doubling of its weighting).

Remember that M&G mostly invests other peoples money, so it may not be highly exposed to Thames Water directly, but any losses will hit fund performance and investor sentiment in time if they are large enough - that is where the size of the WP Fund and diversification within investment funds is a vital tool for M&G.

The main company exposure will be in bonds backing the annuity business. Again, this insurance fund should be diversified to allow some credit losses.

The recent lending is likely private debt that will be originated for their private credit funds.

Look for any additional disclosure about exposures to sectors / specific companies in their investor pack with the HY results…..I doubt there will be much comment about Thames itself.

Should AZ move its main listing to the US, they are likely to maintain a listing in London (which may not be eligible for inclusion in indices, but will reflect the prices set in the US), Santander has a similar listing deriving from its takeover of Abbey National.

You will also be able to trade the US listing if your broker allows (which they mostly will).

So not much for the UK PIs to fear……but a great deal for LSEG and HMG to ponder as they seek to grow the UK market.