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I think we need to see what the revised company finances look like, the details are few and far between.

Maybe they will be able to show a pro-forma 2024 for comparative purposes. We do know there will be a one off profit, a change to net cash from significant debt and limited depreciation/investment in fixed assets, so the IDA in EBITDA will be much more positive.

Maybe the analysts will get the numbers out very soon.

Yes they are higher than elsewhere…..the US is an expensive environment to operate in with more gatekeepers to pay just to reach a patient. DJT needs to use competetition laws to make the US healthcare systems more competitive.

There are many examples of European state systems declining to use drugs using value for money assessments. The US insurance system provides the drugs and bumps up premiums. Would you rather pay more and access more modern solutions or pay less and accept that does not work for some suppliers. Markets at play.

Well that M&A has been keeping everyone busy and the results will be on 19 June.

The effects will be quite complex….the old model of buy a brand and consolidate into excess manufacturing capacity is dead,

Product innovation to create sales of higher margin products is now the name of the game.

Should be an interesting day….

Quite a lot of change as they can present the sold assets as discontinuing operations.

Now into what I like to call mid-May…..the major event since the last financial reporting is the acquisition of H&H at the end of October.

This may be a change in scope for the auditors requiring more time and consideration of the presentation of their results within the wider VLG accounts, or it might be that something has emerged that needs further investigation.

The longer this delay goes on without any statement about when the accounts will be published and some indication of what has caused the delay, the more fearful I become that there is a problem.

Hopefully there will be news in the next couple of days.

TAK reports 48bn Y in the 12 m to March 25. Approx 320m USD partly weaker USD mostly expanded approvals,

No mention of product development ex-China (too early?)

BTW AIA rose 6% in HK on its new business result for Q1.

HK does not set the price for Pru and waits for a message from London…… result a fall.

The AIA results were marginally better than Pru’s but could be mostly rounding up to 13% and down to 12%. Over the last 6m AIA is down 5% Pru up 25% so the change in dynamic today may just be a reassessment of AIA..

These are the sales results which were good and v similar to AIA (+13% of its VONB metric).

There is no IFRS result which is probably a significant loss caused by market movements of assets…..

No update on potential part sale of the ICICI-Pru JV. India could be a relative winner from the US/China fallout so hoping the valuation achievable reflects that

Wonder what the excuse is for not getting the accounts out at the end of April as set out in the Feb trading statement…..

asked ir again and nothing doing they said.

still we have az update 29 april, takeda 8 may which will tell us about how things are going. innovent also do a q1 sales update which may give some indication of the fru*****inib combination therapy.

Big rises for the sector in HK today…..goodness knows how given the US market yesterday. A useful exit day for traders ahead.

The news about the Gastric Cancer trial of Savolitinib is ahead of the results presentation which had H2 as the enrolment complete period. The RNS also says could progress NDA (conditional?) umder its Breathrough designation in 2025 which would suggest sales could start Q3 2026.

A further thought on Q1 revenue is that HCM manufacturing revenue may run ahead of Takeda sales if T has front loaded Fruq orders to beat potential tariffs…..but I expect that T will start manufacturing Fruq outside China and this will reduce HCMs revenue in the medium term.

Fruq will see the main increases in Q1, with the EMC extension coming into play in China and global extension of marketing/public reimbursement approvals.

Savolitinib got a label extension into L1 should generate extra sales but from a relatively low and steady base (2L which will be eroded by L1 sales).

Surufatinib - flat

Tazverik minimal sales in Q1 , but approval at the end of Q1 will drive some additional revenue from Q2.

Beigene is updating the market on 7 May, Takeda 8 May…AZ is earlier on 29 April..Will HCM join them with a formal sales update? I hope so, but can do the maths from other companies if they dont.

The thing with small practices is that they carry a greater risk that the practitioner is a maverick who delivers a poor standard of care (what they do is not standard or their version) or goes rogue and exploits certain customers (specific beliefs, cranks and gurus). There is a lack of critical oversight and balance to their perceived clinical status.

Not blind to the excesses of large corporates, but in private healthcare there is some comfort in checking that standards are being applied.

The BBC is pushing a ‘new’ story based on Vets being incentivised by corporates to increase the services they provide with some vets feeling that this was inappropriate. The target was inevitably the largest corporate which is PE owned and shock horror they also own testing labs, referral centres and crematoria.

The BBC seems to have a romantic view that the old style 2-3 partner model delivered better cheaper care. Well they have sold out because they cant afford to invest in the modern requirements for a surgery and the next generation of vets does not want the hassle of owning a small business.

The question pet owners need to ask is what does the additional test / service mean for the treatment of the pet…..the vet must believe it enhances the outcome of the treatment otherwise they should not ethically propose it. As a pet owner I would want vets to be in a position to provide the best standard of care…..they need investment to do that and as BSOC improves it will cost more.

This is private medicine for pets - is it really surprising the costs increase ahead of inflation when there are new treatments and additional regulatory expectations…..just look at how human private medical costs have soared and what the NHS costs.

I am not a vet, but I know some veterinarians and working as a (relatively well paid) employee seems to be preferable to them to running a complex small business.

One benefit of the trump dump is that the buy backs will be taking out considerably more than 5m shares, perhaps as many as 7m or 10%.

SCMP carrying a story about Tazmetostat being manufactured in US and Hutchmed evaluating supply chain to minimise the impact of China tariffs.

(Most drugs contain Chinese manufactured Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs), so it may be that US manufacture is hit by the Pharma tariff on China when/if it comes. Maybe IPSEN/Epizyme will start manufacturing in China.

Latest AUM statement is a shocker losing 5% AUM in one quarter (more like 7% excluding market movements) is indicative of western investors pulling back to home markets.

I wonder at what point ASHM becomes too small to be viable…..it has skills and capabilities that would probably work better within a larger entity (PHNX, MNG, AV, LGEN, SDR etc). Hopefully Combes can cash out soon and leave his staff with an owner that can push them funds to invest.

It does not make sense for Trump to tariff pharma…..better for consumers to push successful drugs into the Medicaid price review process….

Searching does country x reimburse Fruzaqla produces several positive responses

Germany, France, Spain are said to reimburse the cost….others are less definitive eg Italy, Poland….

In this context it does seem odd that the UK has rejected it for use in the NHS (unless Takeda returns with a lower price). Clearly the UK puts a lower value on a year of life than our European neighbours - or they can afford to spend on newer innovative drugs leaving the UK to fall behind on treatment outcomes.

Takeda reports the Jan-Mar quarter on May 8 within its full year reports. US should be steady, with Japan and EU coming on stream. Hopefully a quarter above $75m

Except he won’t bid……he will be a willing seller to any bidder and if he agrees a sale there is little anyone can do about it…..he is the controlling shareholder now.

Tomorrows numbers are all about the margin effect as a result of changes in the product mix and the unanswerable question of what do tariff changes mean will be met with a TBC response.

We may find out they don’t sell much in the US and the latest partnership with Jaguar for some specialist personal care items will be about convincing customers to pay a bit more rather than an existential threat to the product due to US based competitors.