Member Info for Jatw

I asked them to include responses in the company presentation as that seemed a way they could impart news to the market and increase the chances of some sort of response.

I think it will need questions on the analyst call to get some proper answers.

The results are going to be a huge uplift on 2023, we know that much from the sales report.

TNAV was 240 at the HY, we can anticipate a further 15p has been added maybe slightly more based on the sales.

The SP had a good run last year, I think it will be steadier but increasing around each update.

Looking for a substantial 20% uplift to the dividend….

Some good sales for the next 5 years adding 30p to NAV…then we see what happens with a 250p shareprice.

The more shares they take out of the market at these levels the better…..

They should have scope to comment on 1,2,4,7

3 they may decline to on the basis they do not get that from the regulators

5 they may say is sensitive

6 they may see is too early (wait for their R&D day)

i have asked investor relations if they can comment on the following items in the fy presentation. i intend to ask in the q&a if they dont.

1 quarterly sales updates. will you be providing q1/q3 sales updates in 2025. quarterly reporting was a trend that other companies adopted during 2024 and it is more important as more products are approved / spread globally.

2 how is the combination therapy of sintilimab and fru*****inib being taken to market? (do hutchmed and innovent sell each part separately or sell the combo? and have you agreed a pricing approach (eg use the nrdl rate?)

3 can you put an indicative date against the regulatory reviews that are in progress (appreciate these might change and be cautious) - or do we infer a date from the path to a self sustaining business slide. hopefully the savannah nda will be filed before the results, if not some update on the submission may be appropriate.

4 takeda sales of fruzaqla - the sales are possibly ahead of expectations a year ago, but it is perhaps disappointing that the sales in usa appear to have plateaued so quickly (peak appears to have been 80m in q2). do you have any insight as to why that has occurred eg was there a stock of 4l that is now exhausted and the flow is 3l? is it a takeda limitation to reach parts of the market and what action is takeda taking to address any issues. further details of the sales in japan / eu / row as they become available will be helpful - takeda cited a strong launch in japan and momentum in germany in their recent sales updates but provided no figures for those markets.

5 tazmesostat. how has the commercial target market for taz changed since the deal with epizyme was signed? if it is negatively are the terms of the contract under review / being renegotiated?

6 what is the expected investment in the new attc platform up to breakeven.

7 has the board considered whether the breakeven of the business (pre attc) and the sale of the jv has created a situation where the company is more than fully funded and can commence some form of return to shareholders either in the form of a dividend or a share buy back. does the board have a policy for determining whether it is fully funded and what it does with any surplus?

The biggest issue for external investors in China is how to extract profits / capital and remain an acceptable business partner to the CCP masters of China.

If big US/EU pharma can now borrow locally that relieves the pressure of further capital input from the rest of the world and makes their operations self financing eventually.

The CCP also seems to be encouraging M&A to make the efficient allocation of resources a reality……I can only think they want that to be internal M&A to build China big pharma.

The issue is there are very few options open to UK investors…the HKSE publishes a list of ETFs which is where I found the one I cited…..however I could not purchase it because of the mainland entities in the fund. This was the same with the HS Index fund too. The only fund I was allowed to buy was an MSCI ESG fund which only included the traditional HK stocks and excludes chinese tech like Alibaba given property has a v large weighting in HK I did not want to go there.

Not many platforms give direct access to HK.

I use II and have found them to be quite accommodating. They have added a couple of stocks to their custody list for me that are not sanctioned and I appear to be the only holder of them at present. They give me a little diversification when I reinvest my HK$.

Rumour that CKI bid $7bn for a majority stake in Thames Water……but bondholders needed to take a significant haircut.

Not sure CKI can own two of the major water companies, but they will need a lot to go right to make a success of Thames……but no doubt knocking a few £bn off the debt pile would help.

Not keen on the deal myself, but CKI has in the past been shrewd and they might just pick up a reasonably priced asset, although it comes with a toxic political legacy.

Yes….

3069 is a biotech ETF on the HKSE which is up almost 5% today outperforming the main index……unfortunately we (UK residents) cannot buy it because it contains some sanctioned China entities with ties to the People’s Liberation Army.

Beigene was a big mover up 11% today, Hutchmed +7, Innovent +6, Junshi +5

The Slater Growth and Slater Recovery funds listed on HL both have around 5% invested in personal care, drug & grocery stores. The funds are valued at 177m and 584m giving around a 40m allocation to the sector that includes VLG. His other fund Income does not have this as a top sector.

He may have other funds in the stable, but it could be that VLG represents about 30% of his allocation to this sector and about 1.5% of these funds….

Still trading around 70% of book value (9x gaap earnings, 5x adjusted non gaap earnings)…..still on the cheap side unless the tariffs eventually sink the US economy.

There seems to have been a mood change in the US leading the SP higher……three up sessions and nearly 20% gained in a week (I know too well about the losses that preceded this) and all on no company news.

The HK biotech market has also risen up 11% and there is a bit of unwind of overselling HCM.

Overall the talk of tariffs seems to have had no effect….probably on the assumption this is just the US adding a slice of tax for what is for the end customer an already expensive price insensitive purchase.

FY results were excellent.

Divi rising to 80c per Q (+14%)

500-550m in buy back also up a similar % on 2024.

Possibly a good bounce tomorrow as today was a down day.

So the question is will LGEN recapture its mojo….and will others lose their way creating a positive view of LGEN.

The US deal is a catalyst for investors to start seeing LGEN in a different light, the initial reaction was strong but the excitement was not sustained…..maybe it will be assessed differently in 12-18m time.

It is a complicated industry sector and others will have their views on why Aviva has outperformed LGEN over the last 3 years…….I look forward to hearing them too.

Every dog has its day…..but seriously AV had a new CEO Amanda Blanc who ripped up the business model, sold almost all the overseas businesses for good money and has reinvested creating scale in their target markets…..Aviva is more diversified covering personal lines as well as the investments and annuities favoured by LGEN.

In contrast LGEN started believing its stakeholder capitalism spiel and tried to create assets by amongst several ideas being a pre-fab house builder….LGEN was a seller of other businesses including its heritage savings business protection and personal lines businesses.

So I would say Aviva was a dog and then got a new strategy and became the favourite of the sector. Over the same period LGEN strategy got stale and they were not doing anything exciting for the analysts to assess. Insurance investing is a bit of a niche for fund managers so there will likely have been rotation within the sector (from LGEN to AV, hence AV has outperformed in the last few years, but it will be different if you go back further into Avivas dog days..

China did announce around this time last year that it wanted companies to look at how to improve shareholder value and raise share prices…..so an increase in dividends and buy backs has been the result.

Except at HCM we know Dr Su wants to spend it (the company cash) all on developing the pipeline. They have the resources to start a regular dividend or a modest buy back….but probably prefer to hoard the cash…just in case.

I cant see them doing a significant in-licensing deal as they will be outbid for anything with strong prospects…..so they will have do do it themselves (slowly) or eventually sell to a bigger pharma.

Ipsen reported its 2024 results today. They highlighted increased US sales of 24% (no value reported). The Symphony 1 Phase 3 trial (a global trial that HCM is running the China leg of) is completing mid 2026. This is not on the HCM pipeline slide but presumably will be if a China NDA can be filed in 2026/27

If it behaves like LGEN this surge will evaporate by the close…..after all nothing has changed yet.

There has always been speculation about the various JVs which tie up capital but dont give Pru control over the cash flow.

China has provided a route for foreigners to obtain full control. India has been a bit more parochial.

If it were not for the growth potential of China, that could have come before India for divestment…..but with the Indian market much hotter than China it makes sense to sell the Indian asset at a higher multiple than could be raised in China…….China, Malaysia and others to come to market in future…….

Pru has sold down to 21% on the ICICI Pru Life Insurance Company.

It talks about a partial divestment which could be 40-60% of the Pru holding.

I would think it unlikely they will go for a smaller placing…..but it depends on market conditions and their advisors may suggest a smaller placing leaving room for a follow up placing if the shares go well.