Member Info for Jatw

Strange that no daily buy back announcements have been made…..have they started or are they all off market institutional sales that are being co-ordinated? Or maybe they have not started.

US ADS is in half shares…..it would make sense for AZ to do a share split when they list in the US - just psychological that people think they have more shares and create some marginal demand.

If they do it, they should do it once, say 10-1.

The return to profit and positive cash flow is very welcome. Let’s hope they can keep it up. The SP metrics will look much better if they can. The SP has doubled over the last 6 months and trebled from its year lows……probably needs a period of stability before progressing higher (on continued business momentum)

The lack of a permanent CEO does make licensing deals less certain and rules out making a bid for another company, but making the company relatively weaker may draw in a predator….you just don’t know how it will turn out.

Https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3331950/six-best-how-chinas-new-biotech-vanguard-banking-billions-breakthroughs

Interesting article - over 100 outlicensing deals valued at potentially over $100bn by Chinese developers so far in 2025. (obvs no mention of HCM). The largest deal by Innovent with Takeda is up to $11bn.

- if the global pharma companies have not spent all their cash there should be a decent market for both ATTC and Sovleplenib.

Market now likes the update…..led by US orders no doubt.

The pipeline continues its impressive progress and it looks like sales will go higher over the next few years.

As for profits, we don’t know the effect on profitability of pricing changes in response to Trump and the cost of manufacturing in the USA. There is some risk of disappointment, but the quality of the pipeline will likely win out.

One that can be relied on for the medium to long term.

9m value is $23m…not really changing yet.

H1 was $15m, so Q3 is $8m on its own…

Pension managers reported as seeing significant tax free cash withdrawals - it is the logical thing to do if you think you are near the top of the TFC range and could be impacted by a cut in the level allowed.

Reeves is going to make Quilter very busy for the next few years……IHT increasingly bites on the middle class, pensions need to be spent to avoid an IT/IHT combination after death…..and as an attractive large advice firm could be a target.

Asset Managers have had a good year so far…..good to get an AUMA update as it is an awful long wait to March.

Institutional demand is performance driven, so MNG is doing the right thing.

Retail / Advised will follow. The budget is going to push many more people to seek advice, financial planning and asset management services.

PruFund about to come into its own again should the AI bubble deflate a little and the WP BPA proposition will be interesting to see, particularly as an investment for the running on funds. MNG can offer investment guarantees using the WP capital and gain fees on Asset Management. Could be set up for BPAs or funds that need guaranteed returns to enable the transaction in a few years, or as an investment for funds that want to run on. Get it right it could get significant value, get it wrong and capital in the WP fund could be burnt (if bad enough could require the PLC to make good the fund for other policyholders.

A milestone on the way to AZ getting global approval.

US Fast Track Designation should shorten and approval process and allows rolling submission of the NDA. They already know a lot from the SAVANNAH study which seemed close to giving sufficient for conditional approval. HCM will land milestone payments (2026/27) and then significant royalty payments (from mid 2027).

This has taken a lot longer than anticipated from the signing of the licensing deal and is now approaching approval just as Tagrisso nears the end of its patent protection…..how convenient..

If data read out is June 2026, NDA submission may be complete by Sept 26 and approval as early as March 2027.

I do agree - the tone from Dr Shi was very encouraging…..but then this is the sales pitch and look at all the future goodies coming down the track. Time will tell, but there does seem to be real hope for a significant change in fortunes for Hutchmed. I have just listened again and Dr Shi did mention potential partners for Sovlep and ATTC. I got the impression that he really believes in the ATTC platform and the company discovery capabilities.

Expanding on the commercials, the Fruq+Sin for RCC could be launched as early as Q1 next year and we will have AZ building Savo sales on the back of SACHI. The game changer is approval of Sovlep as that will be all HCM in China, if they can get 20% of the market (200m pa) that will generate c 150m in margin. Foreign partnership fees will boost that further.

The Surufatinib PDAC work was previously rather speculative, but it sounded like it is going to be a positive readout there was certainly little caution expressed by Dr Shi - will it be good enough for a conditional approval? (That would be a nice bonus)

ATTC is still rather speculative, but a number of platform deals have been announced this year - and it is feasible HCM could land a largish player.

Sovleplenib approval presumably early 2027, but maybe earlier due to the work performed since the initial 2024 submission is .

Going better on 3 November. AIA was up 5% in HK following its Q3 results on Friday….positive sector sentiment will help Pru.

Consensus seems to be that Pru has some catching up to do with AIA on valuation grounds……which should make Pru the better investment in the short term. Overall both companies reflect the health of Asian economies.

If AZ includes a sales number for Savo that will give an early insight into the effect of the label expansion as a result of the SACHI approval.

The H1 sales were beneath AZs materiality, HCM has the in market sales at $15m (down 40% on 2024).

There look to be a number of price catalysts coming up with 3 or 4 NDAs cited as possible in 2025 and more in 2026.

They have to get through the regulatory reviews but some like the Frusica-2 study are compelling and look likely to be successful.

Hopefully a revenue recovery in H2 2025, with growth in 2026 and an exponential rise in 2027.

I dont expect the market to move much until the NDAs are approved (end 26/H1 27).

My trade was the last one listed today……I feel the SP has retreated from the recent high to a new base…..while we await the next acquisition or trading update. FWIW I think the H&H looks like a good deal, if they find something that can bolt on to that business that would be a positive.

If they cant do a deal, then there will be more buy backs coming…..and Mr Slater must have an exit strategy that does not involve selling into the market.

I added a few today….in expectation of continued sales growth to be announced with the results in a week.

I added to my holding today. The business has momentum which I see being reflected in the SP….and likely to continue

Takeda has reported HY sales of Y27.3bn which is around USD180m for the half.

The quarterly split was 12.3 increasing to 15bn (up22%) this is due to new launches around the world (now 30 markets) and government reimbursement decisions coming through (UK NICE decision has driven significant uptake).

This means the latest quarterly run rate was USD100m or $400m pa.

HCM makes a royalty of mid teens as pure profit, with additional charges for manufacturing and other support.

The HCM Q3 royalty payment will be around $15m

Pretty decent figures, sales NBP and margin all reported ahead of H1 and well ahead of Q3 2024.

Fully justifies the run up this year - with the Trump / Xi meeting coming there is reason to be hopeful the upward direction of the SP will continue.