Member Info for Jatw

DC - What’s your thinking behind 350+?

Possibly more capital releases coming from regulatory change and continued buying from Japan

But no indication of a significant increase in profits / operating cash flow to drive such a SP on fundamentals?

Healthea includes the ex VLG CDMO. Hopefully the other parts of Healthea can add something to the already deep relationship

I wonder what the valuation split is between the Life and Asset Management business (the third leg - Wealth is being subsumed back into the Life business)?

The Life business is the supertanker - just ploughs ahead throwing off cash and quite difficult to change the results meaningfully. Pays the dividend and provides the group with it capital ballast.

The Asset Management business is more volatile with fees dependent on the underlying assets hence the need to grow AUM and control costs. This is where growth should matter and be the driver of SP growth..

Nice gentle rise in the SP….hope it continues in 26

TD still putting a lot of value on Savolitinib - I think too much.

They imply the PDAC was read out at ESMO, but I thought that was more P1 data.

They indicate delays to the NDAs that were possible in 2025 and also approval of Frusica-2 in H1 26.

I would not be surprised by some regulatory updates before the year end but no news is just that….if there is no news before the FY results then I would start to worry about them.

While the SP has been disappointing, HCM has actually done better than many HK listed pharma.

Indian press reporting the grey market price is some 12% above the top of the IPO pricing range. Listing is expected to start trading on Friday 19th December.

Looks like IPAMC is going to be valued around US$12bn. I doubt Pru’s share of nearly $6bn (pre-tax) has been included by analysts at this type of valuation. The monetisation of the JVs and lack of control over their operating cashflows has always been an issue for Pru…..we have had CEOs of differing opinions as to which way to go with the JVs but you have to roll with the local politics and what is permitted. If you can list the JVs in their own right you do get a market valuation for their share and have market encouragement for cash flow deployment in dividends/debt repayment / share buy backs which can influence the dominant local partners.

Hopeful that Pru has found a new way forward and look forward positively to the China JVs and other businesses being valued on their growth stories to reduce the conglomerate discount.

It seems the IPO is going well, with the Indian press reporting a 6% premium in grey market trading over the top of the pricing range. Buy bids commence formally tomorrow, with close on Tuesday.

An interesting period for VLG coming up….they have gone from being a buy with debt operation and being in-hock to their bankers to having freedom to invest their cash as they see fit. Spending your own money is always different to spending someone else’s. My hunch is that organic growth and direct to consumer sales are going to feature much more prominently in their story and they are going to push the boundaries of the brands they already have and they will chase the latest consumer wellness fads.

The SP is likely to respond much more positively to some real organic growth rather than more risky M&A.

Buy backs are now established as part of shareholder returns.

Lloyds has plenty of capital, so we can expect a slightly raised dividend and another 1.5-2.0 bn buy back with the next results or perhaps before…the Board could announce a new one within the existing mandate at any time..

A positive development for the focus of the business…..the next updates will be either an acquisition announcement or a trading update around end of January for the 12m ending December.

Finding the targets at the right size and price must be quite tricky…..and that could become a problem for them as pressure will build to deploy the cash either through higher risk M&A or return it to shareholders (might as well sell the company at that point)..

No numbers just blah blah blah…..

Warm words butter no parsnips

For those interested, Innovent announced the first time inclusion of 6 drugs, bringing their total to 7.

Their shares fell 6-7% today.

The HCM announcement confirms this endometrial cancer therapy as being the only NRDL change for 2026.

So it would seem AZ has not sought label expansion for Savolitinib.

Tazverik has been added to the Commercial insurance list which seems to be for more expensive treatments not available on the basic plans……I guess some patients are more equal than others in China…..anyway it would seem to offer the chance of a boost in sales.

Starman, management did say they would add the proceeds to the buy back programme - presumably net of tax and expenses.

Innovent has announced that the Fruq+Sintilimab endometrial cancer treatment has made the NRDL for 2026.

(I dont suppose that is a surprise)

Other India press reporting the price range and institutional book building commences 11 December with retail opening on 12th.

Size appears to be $1.2bn (less what will probably be a considerable tax bill which may take some time to settle (India has a history of re-opening sales of businesses after many years).

The SP has moved up a couple of p recently…..there must be indications that the PRA and CMA dont consider this merger problematic and the market is anticipating approval earlier in 2026 than previously thought (the indicative date was only H1 26).

I consider this share like cash at the moment, with a small return but it is beneficial if you think there is a potential for a market sell off. No need to sell in the market unless you see a bargain emerge……

The meeting was held and voted in favour of allowing all PIBS to be redeemed. This is now expected on 9 December.

An early cash bonus for Christmas…..and a slight complexity for the 25/26 tax return but simplification of the 26/27 return when it comes round.

Sorry got ahead of myself…..PIBS should be Qualifying Coroporate Bonds, so no CGT.

However a lot of the yield over the years has been taxed at 40%, so I doubt I have made any real return after tax

Found my original contract note for my PIBs…paid 1700 per PIB plus accrued income and charges.

Inflation has been about 140% since I bought them….so I have a real loss of about £2000.but I will be taxed on a capital gain of £400….make it make sense.