Member Info for Jatw

January - Schroders bought by American asset manager

February - Janus Henderson has accepted a bid from PE….there seems to be a bidding war for JH

Not so many left, but who will be next?

In January it was Schroders, today Janus Henderson has agreed a deal to be taken private.

Makes you think London asset managers are an endangered species.

In other news…..the CK group of companies is selling UK power networks (the London and SE electricity distribution network) to a French utility for £10.5bn. Not sure what the strategy is or why there is a need for cash, but it does seem they are open to offers for many of their assets….so if Takeda or Astra wants, they can probably strike a deal at a reasonable premium to this low valuation point. Takeda will be paying about $80m or more in royalty payments for the next 5 years and AZ may end up paying more if Savo + Tagrisso generates significant sales….that is an income stream and a cost saving to justify the premium over current market price (which therefore must be significantly under priced).

Recent re-ratings of share prices have happened at AZ and GSK when management has been able to set what sounds like an impressive revenue target and then show how they get there.

What would be the timescale required for HCM to achieve $1bn annual revenue? (If it were global product revenue that could be as soon as 2028 with a fair wind, for HCM revenues they may need to set a lower target to have something within 2030)

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The provisional changes to take effect in March have been published and CVSG is expected to join.

To be confirmed with a new data cut on 5 March…..it would need something quite catastrophic and specific to CVSG/Vets for this position not to be confirmed.

More buyers guaranteed.

HSBC raised its target revenue based on its wealth management business across Asia.

Should be a positive indicator for Pru….as long as HSBC dont hoover up too many Pru clients.

Yesterday’s budget for South Africa shows economic progress is being made with Debt/GDP peaking in 2026.

Hope the govt can sustain that and start to invest more in their country.

Good results from St James Place this morning….including significant reductions in their service review provision.

Expecting excellent result from Q next week.

Up another 10% towards the end of Feb now…..25% up over three months.

Definitely a better time to be a shareholder….results soon, looking forward to their commentary on prospects for 2026 as they build out their bank.

They will have either placed an order to be filled over time and then the broker accumulates for the fund which then reports the stake later or they could do an off market transaction (buy from another fund) and report that later.

HK daily volume average is 4m, US is 200ik (shares, the 40k is ADS) and AIM is 40k. Unless they want to move to the main board in the UK and be a FT350 company there is little corporate benefit to being listed in London (CKH is said to be evaluating listing its retail and telecoms businesses in HK and London, so that might then be normal for cos within the CKH group).

Re shorts - they have made good money in 2025 running HCM down….the results will be mixed, we know oncology sales have slowed, R&D costs have probably risen (for ATTC) and there is a big one off gain from SHPL sale, but commercial milestone payments moved from 25 to 26 may change the narrative for this year…..they may just be reducing their exposure anticipating a change in sentiment and then there are random events like licensing deals that could create market movements…..lets hope the shorts go elsewhere for a bit.

Cevodniya,

A few hundred is all my relatively small stake is worth now, it has never been the 120k you have invested…..

After falling 95% or more….my perspective is that this is not significant anymore to my portfolio..

It does depend when you started, more recent speculators may well be only 50% down and you are down what 60%.

I am not putting more in unless there is a recovery….this would be worth buying if it was 20p with sales growing strongly and would not stay there for long…..but I have held some shares for several years and have bought more on the way down and it shows no signs of turning round. Clearly you take a different view, i hope you are right and make lots of £££ on your gamble..

Future dilutions will be brutal and sadly unavoidable if sales targets continue to be elusive.

Tempus Q4 results out in the last 24hrs showed strong diagnostic revenues…..but no mention of the collaboration - it is chump change to them even in the medium term……they could easily acquire and fund the roll out if they think it will be a winner for them.

My conclusion is that this is heading for a pre-pack administration / chapter 11. I am going to leave my couple of hundred quid holding just in case, but it is a costly error for me and a failure of WBs rule number 1.

Future dilutions will be brutal and sadly unavoidable if sales targets continue to be elusive.

Tempus Q4 results out in the last 24hrs showed strong diagnostic revenues…..but no mention of the collaboration - it is chump change to them even in the medium term……they could easily acquire and fund the roll out if they think it will be a winner for them.

My conclusion is that this is heading for a pre-pack administration / chapter 11. I am going to leave my couple of hundred quid holding just in case, but it is a costly error for me and a failure of WBs rule number 1.

80% is not uncommon for a bid to succeed……A bidder for HCM would probably need to offer atleast 50%, possibly 100% to get CKHHs attention…..but they should listen seriously to offers because if ATTC is not successful then the prospects are worsening.

There seem to be a number of platforms that are similar to ATTC….that are being sold for big money, if ATTC works HCM should not be shy about realising shareholder value…but their history of licensing suggests otherwise.

I have written to Investor Relations with my financial related questions….I am hoping they will respond to some within the presentation, if not they can anticipate a question (they will ignore).

I wonder if they have a surprise up their sleeve?

New CEO?

Capital return?

Licensing deal?

What does JPM think it knows? To put QLT on a positive catalyst watch…..

The results are next week….we know AUM has risen strongly in H2 and so we should expect that to start flowing into the profits.

In addition, I would not be surprised to find a strategic deal is announced. Consolidating a smaller rival would be positive as would getting a strategic investor (like MNG).

We will wait and see, Brooks MacDonald and Rathbones report this week (and could do a SDR and announce M&A with their results) and could be targets for QLT.

The trend started with a strategic partnership announcement in the summer last year…..the Japanese insurer Dai-Ichi is expected to buy 15% in the market and can go one to 20%.

DI gets to participate in some new business and provide a flow of assets from its business of c£6bn over a few years.

What DI’s plans are beyond that are unknown….they could increase their stake and then go for a takeover, or they could sell to someone else, or just hang around for a long time.

In the meantime there is a willing buyer in the market which seems to have driven the shareprice (plus the prospects for the business seem to be improving - AUM growth and the insurance side winning more bulk annuity deals). They dont tend to announce their new contracts via RNS, rather press releases on their website.

After a run like this, we can expect a period of flatlining to happen……existing shareholders may want to trim at that point if they have better options available than a 6% dividend.

Writing to Investor relations asking them to address the following in the results:

Accounting for the SHPL revenue warranty (any provision for liabilities through 2028)

Development milestones (and indicative value) expected in 2026/27

Commercial milestones (and indicative value) expected in 2026/27 would be helpful to atleast specify the items that moved out of 2025 and resulted in the revised guidance.

Investment in ATTC platform to date, level of planned investment in 26/27/28 and equivalent spend on existing portfolio (suggest split of investment between pre clinical, early stage clinical, late stage clinical, label expansion)

Capital management policy (eg funding for 2 years operating expenses)

Pricing for products on NRDL list for label expansions (including collaborations).

Astra Zeneca - strategy for savolitinib and tagrisso combination and progress launching under the SACHI approval and looking forward if the GC NDA is approved)

Takeda - upcoming milestone payments and label expansion plans

Ipsen - how is the commercial value of Tazverik looking compared to the expectations on acquisition of the China rights.

Not sure what they will be able to say due to contract confidentiality, but dont ask = dont get.

A slightly disappointing start to trading today after the results…..there will surely be some analyst upgrades coming in the next week or two to highlight these results.

I dont understand the US GAAP accounting leading to the loss, but I expect it is marking assets to market. There is a statement in the asset appendix which suggests market/book is 97%….3% mark to market loss is a big number, but if held to maturity and matched with liabilities means little other than to scare/confuse.

I look at the capital position which is strong and the cash generation which is also good. The Adjusted Operating Profit is a better view of profitability than the accounting result - they dont have IFRS17 and the CSM in the USA yet.

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And the after market likes the announcements back over $120. I can see this getting to $140 during 2026 (barring major market disruption).

Another one…..

Adjusted Operating Profit of $22 per share.

Increase in dividend to 90c from 80….and increase in Buy Backs giving a total shareholder return of $900-1100m Presumably a large slug of the TPG investment will be spent buying shares back…..