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Well that was a quick turnaround (helped by the White House sentiment), JXN opened up in NY…..

The out of hours trading was clearly illadvised.

It is odd…..management says strong results but the market takes fright and the shares are down 11% at 8am UK in out of hours trading.

The reporting is very complicated which cant help when there is a ‘new hedging approach’.

Shareholder returns and capital position still seem strong.

It feels like an over-reaction so give it a few days to see where it settles….

In other news, CKHH has agreed to sell out of Vodafonethree, one year after merger and well before the options to buy are enforceable. That takes CKHH (and its wider group) disposals close to £20bn this year.

They clearly have an appetite to sell assets at the moment…..will HCM be on the block as well or will they consider taking it private? Both are possible.

No Malt, have not seen anything…..I recall reading/hearing that AZ did not apply for NRDL inclusion for it so not surprised that it is not making the sales numbers improve. Definitely a valid question for Investor Relations, another good question being what approvals are being pursued based on SAVANNAH data, is it just Switzerland - and then how is it selling in Zurich.

As to the CEO position, we dont know, we have to believe the Board is working on it. We have to be careful what to wish for - is it someone to implement the existing strategy or is it someone to shake things up and perhaps spend a billion dollars (and what on?).

I feel the in house management is in the last chance saloon…..they are betting big on ATTC and to a lesser extent on Sovleplenib….If ATTC works, then the mcap could multiply several fold and then HCM can takeover other pharma, if it is less successful then I think CKHH should pass Hutchmed into a larger entity. Hunter or prey, I do think it is existential for them as a standalone business.

Interesting that CK and Vod have terminated their joint ownership early and in cash…..the options embedded in the original deal allowed Vod to issue shares.

Certainty is best for both parties…..now will VOD seek to buy other European assets of CK?

Quite a drop down to 57p…..

And hopefully the data from both ESLIM studies and acceptance of the NDAs is sufficient to get the ball rolling on a global trial and a licensing deal!

Todays news about the second NDA is welcome, particularly the priority review and Breakthrough Therapy designation.

Priority review usually means 6 months, with the ITP NDA already a few months in (and being a second submission), it is almost inconceivable that the NMPA will not complete them in parallel. Both are likely to get approval in October. While ITP is a competitive treatment area, it seems patients go through many courses of different therapies so HCM will get its turn on many.

A significant boost to revenue is possible in late 26 and developed in 27 before NRDL takes effect in 2028.

May 13th for the next Takeda reporting (their FY to March)

USD/JPY conversion rate has moved from approx 150 to 160 over the last year so the result will look better in JPY than in USD.

9m sales were JPY 42.9bn, last year FY sales were 48bn.

Like you a bit confused, usually beating market consensus and achieving strategic goals results in a positive movement. I don’t discern anything in the results to really cast doubt on the prospects of the company. It has made some substantial investment commitments, but it is capable of funding them (or just going slow so they are financable).

Looking at the long term charts suggests that AZ has been running ahead of the market and has just regressed towards the mean a little.

Looking at the clinical progress the company is making and as its seemingly impressive sales target of $80bn in 2030 gets more plausible, this just looks like a great company trading at a good price.

If you need the cash, then this is one you can easily sell whatever market conditions are, if your horizon is long term then don’t worry.

And in a note…..Orpathys sales of $7m….broadly in line with 2025 run rate….

Possibly uplift late in the year if the GC NDA is successful…but it is for a relatively small population of patients.

The AZ Q1 results today reported that the SAMETA study of Orpathys and Tagrisso in RCC did not meet its primary end point (progression free survival)…..of course it may meet other end points (eg Overall Survival)

Nothing from HCM….but looking back at the corporate presentation, SAMETA was removed from the validated late stage pipeline slide…..underhand burying the poor news like that.

The AUM tells the same story…..the sales volume and new business profit tell a better story of sales up 6% and profits up more with a 2% margin increase. These were better than PingAn update results which had a 6% profit increase in Q1.

Being held back by concerns over the the gulf war and geopolitical concerns?

Look further back…..this used to be valued at over £1bn……hard to believe isn’t it.

If only management had raised £200m back then they would not have been living hand to mouth and might have made it (after burning through most of the cash).

Right now it is still questionable whether there is a viable business here…..some larger medical testing company can pick it up for literally pennies should they want to.

No AI assistance…..just years of experience following this group of companies.

It will be interesting to read what Pru says about its experience of Asia and African markets during the US/Iran war,

Many WEstern financials have reported strong investment flows for Q1, which are offset by market losses in March.

Q has Asia been the same?

I find CKHH is outwardly a quiet organisation - looking at its IR and Media pages there is very little that does not have to be produced. I suspect they are not really interested in what the outside world thinks. In their presentations they talk about stable returns and HCM barely gets a mention.

I suspect that only a letter to the Chairman is likely to receive any attention…..and then what could you say to him….please consider any offers for your stake in the company? How are you driving value for CKHH shareholders by owning HCM? Please conduct a strategic review of your investment? Here is a first draft….

Dear Mr Victor Li

Thank you for your stewardship of CKHH and the recent efforts to increase market perceptions of the fair value of the Group. I have noted a number of transactions across each of the major divisions, but it is one of your smaller investments that I wanted to raise with you, HutchMed.

Hutchmed has been in existence for 20 years and has achieved significant results benefitting patients across the globe. During this time, CKHH has reduced its effective ownership from over 65% to around 38% and is requiring HCM to operate independently of the Group. HCM itself has experienced a number of disappointments and its valuation has fluctuated significantly over the last decade, but is significantly down from its highs. The latest management strategy to improve valuation is to promote its new Antibody Targetted Therapy Conjugate (ATTC) platform. This is creating some excitement but its commercial value is unproven.

I trust that you do periodically make a strategic review of this investment and would be open to a transaction that secures attractive returns for CKHH. My opinion is that the China biopharmaceutical sector is fragmented and will soon begin experiencing local M&A to create China champions. CKHH will need to determine what part HCM plays in any consolidation and there will be opportunities to grow or to sell. In addition, HCM carries significant cash and short term investments that would appear to be surplus to reasonable operating investment requirements and could be remitted to shareholders via dividend or share buy back, both of which may enhance the value to investors of the company.

I urge you to challenge HCM to improve shareholder value and to carry out a CKHH strategic review of the HCM investment. If the review finds that HCM meets the threshold to remain a long term investments of CKHH, I would like you to consider creating a health division within CKHH comprising the CK Life Sciences and HCM businesses. Improving the visibility of these businesses and demonstrating CKHH commitment to them can only help raise their status with investors.

Having the capacity is one thing…..delivering the test request volume quite another, remember the target market is millions of diabetic Americans, widespread adoption would require much greater capacity.

Years after FDA approval they are still no where near meaningful volumes…..you have to ask yourself why?

While I would love to be proven wrong, I think this is a product looking for a problem to solve that the physicians do not think needs to be solved, hence the poor adoption.

MNG don’t usually give a quarterly AUM statement so just reading across from other players:

Flows have continued to be strong where they were strong (II, Quilter even Jupiter), but the total AUMA has been down at the end of March due to the market at that time which has largely recovered, but who knows where it is heading.

Flows have been weaker where they were weak (Aberdeen excl II).

Conclusion: MNG should be doing fine….

The SP for 26 is enhanced by the hope the Aegon deal is a good one…and it likely is.

The market day in Q4 when they lay out their plans in more detail will be more significant than the 2026 Financial results which will largely exclude the deal benefits but will include many of the costs, so the headlines in March next year may look worse than they are…..the market will largely look through that, but the press will not.

A strategy I will be considering is to sell into the optimism post Q4 market day and buy back after the ‘disappointing’ results.