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HV - thanks for the HSBC numbers, they are more where I would be if not being so pessimistic. I went particularly conservatively on the valuations of US and UK, especially US given the current low margin recovery but would agree with the HSBC number if profits return as expected for 2025.
My understanding was also that 50% of the Hybrid equity was priced into the overall debt numbers at £1.2xB with the remaining £250k coming in 2025/26? I hadn't factored an admin cost so useful to consider thanks.
So I think the numbers still stack up.
You are right, apologies…misread it
Where is the hybrid detailed in the FY update, wasn't listed under treasury management or where all the borrowing is listed?
Not that I want to speak for Wealth, but I thought it was quite clear; using the value of ALSA specifically to account for the cost of debt.
Wealth…according to your calculations the share price of Mobico would be negative….you gotta account for net debt of ~1.2bn, hybrid of 500mio, other liabilities 250mio…so u need almost 2bn to arrive at a sp of 0
HSBC sees the value roughly as
Uk 440
Spain 1500
Na 1130
Admin -240
Thanks Laralara, that was it.
JG68
IMO it was related to government concessions related to travel pass. I remember CFO replied it will take time to legislate and and possibly until 2026.
Someone Please correct if I couldn’t understand well.
Exactly wealthtransfer
In Alsa they have one of the best transport businesses in Europe imo.
The sum of the parts does not justify this valuation, sentiment and management does.
Also they probably have 12-18 months to start thinking about the Hybrid don't they, if maturity is 27-31?
By which time NA sale aside rates are hopefully likely to be lower.
Do you recall what the analyst was asking about re Alsa concessions ending possibly next year, couldn't quite grasp what they referred to and if there could be an impact to Alsa then ?
If all else fails, break it up. Value sum of the parts:
ALSA - enough to wipe out all debt
US School Bus = £500m (conservative low end or more if fully turned around)
US Transit and Shuttle (inc. WeDriveU) = £300m low end
UK Bus = £100m low end
UK Coach = £150m low end
German Rail = £0
= £1.50-£2.00 ps
Anyone got significantly different valuations to these rough numbers?
We could do with clearing the Hybrid and I think then we will be back on
This happened only in UK, Alsa is absolutely fine and growing rapidly. Furthermore, major stakeholder is increasing their stake. IMO couple of good news and it will be back above £1.
"I prefer to stick to fairly easy to understand business models. This should be one of those. You run coaches & fill them with people at fares which are high enough to cover the costs (driver wages; fuel; depreciation etc) & you add a 15-20% premium on for your margin & that is it."
you're thinking of a steady state business, which is an ideal state of affairs.
All business of any size are complicated. What is the margin when the bus runs empty? You have to generate a composite margin figure. Thats only possible if bus utilisation is predictable and repeatable. It worked well before COVID but the aftermath of the pandemic has been a giant disruption. People don't want to go back to regular routines, interest rates are high, inflation is high, fuel costs are high and so on, Basically pre 2019 was an idea business climate for MCG, nowadays not so much. There is always the danger of something happening that will upset figure and forecasts
Talk of low 40’s seems crazy, would be very surprised if this week doesn’t see us in the blue. The news is behind us and we are now looking at new CFO, reducing the debts, increasing the revenue and finally increasing our margins through efficiencies and price increases into 2025. With the ever increasing chance of a buy-out also on the horizon, I fail to see a reason for the pessimism at these levels. Mr market is doing his thing, it’s all self-fulfilling and once the tree is shaken we are in store a sharp correction.
I prefer to stick to fairly easy to understand business models. This should be one of those. You run coaches & fill them with people at fares which are high enough to cover the costs (driver wages; fuel; depreciation etc) & you add a 15-20% premium on for your margin & that is it. This is why Stamp had to go. The financials are not being diligently managed!
Hindy i actually remember you talking about DARK on here when it was mid 200s i think & i saw it drop to 195 i was a bit tempted but it looked a bit of a basket case then. Same type of commentaries on here now tbh!
Schmoky, most people will be sold & gone here once it recovers to £1+.I won't be one of them!
Was so close to buying GOG at low 400s. i remember that one very well!
Yes, i sold a 30k holding in John Wood to buy 30k of these. Shortly after JW had t/o offer at 220. Just how it pans out sometimes. I really think people are overthinking this one though. It'll come back in time!
GOG is another one, CFO effectively sacked on accounting scandal. Intra day SP c400, people saying no-one will touch it for years its dead, suspension, game over and... buyout at 1600. I was in it heavy and sold out two thirds before it jumped as i was fatigued being stuck in it. Massive regret. I fear this one has potential to break some hearts the same way!
Paddy I did, thought it would go little lower. I was actually hovering over the buy button on that for my godson at around 1.40 but after doing my due diligence decided against it which I was quite proud of but then I unfortunately stuck in here and it’s not done any better to be fair ha! Avoided one car crash and straight into another.
My horror story is Darktrace it was my biggest holding I’d invested with a 5year view didn’t need the money
Even had a note on my chart at low £2s saying don’t be a biatch top up with x amount on leverage, then I had that accident where tractor crashed into me, I now needed a lot of money so I’m looking at dt thinking I’m probably going to have to sell you, a couple days later they get accused of fraud the sp bombs that would normally trigger my buy but now warning sirens are going off in my head if it’s true shares will be suspended and open up around 90-95% down so I was a risk I could no longer take had to pretty much sell the bottom! I seen the news last week I felt like crying haha that would of absolutely transformed my portfolio and gave me phenomenal amounts of buying power on leverage which would of put me well on my way to achieving my goals
Thanks Hindy that's is really helpful.
No won't be doing anything rash here , but I do find the posters on this board are generally extremely balanced and really knowledgeable.
Jg I’m spreadbet acc because that’s what I trade on so they may be slightly different to yours but shouldn’t be far off
October low 55.30
Monday open 59.5
Covid low 66.30
Take Covid low for example put it on 1 or 4hr you will notice it’s the last place it touched before it started coming down again. Don’t go doing anything rash jg ffs listening to people on here is dangerous ha. Could be a good lesson for you tho,if you wanna trade it do it on a demo acc
It’s what professionals do, I’m not professional by anymeans but if it works for them it’s good enough for me.
Could be the difference between getting in too early and getting a way better price
Or say you bought 50p high 40s and it bounces, banking your profits when you notice it can’t get through one of the levels above before it turns round and falls off a cliff again.
On your last question yes that was sort off my take, Im not expecting anything supper quick tho as looking at it from a buyers side, if your going to purchase anything using debt then your going to need rates down especially for low margin businesses so I’m guessing we kinda have a limited market to sell to at the minute anyway
Did anyone on here have buy orders for 888 at 48-49 like me? missed out big by scrimping 1-2p
Hindy
Also is it your understanding the reason to delay the schools disposal is to demonstrate new school year bids/ contracts on better margins?
Paddy I was being sarcastic 😂 I watched the presentation live, missed the last two mins of q na because had to nip out and my signal went when leaving the house.
What I meant was why would the secretary and other insiders be buying if this was going into admin? they wouldn’t, Jesus!
Jg I will have a look in a min and post
Nor me Paddy.
But cheers