How would price get decided? Cosmens would obviously do anything to get cheap and have increasing voting power. On the other hand its probably worth £2-3 on open market. Wondering in what scenerario that wouldn't be achieved and the likelihood of that
Fair point on margin being worse tha i estimated if revenue is higher. In fact it may be likely as they seemed to switch away from margin guidance..
As you say still looking at a possible 7.5-8% next year with the possibility of further margin recovery down the line. The additional interest will be offset by a 1bn jump in revenue vs pre-covid. And this does not consider any drop in interest rates on a medium horizon
Someone else has pointed this out yesterday, apologies I lost track of who.
We have H1 OP of 4% with FY outlook at 7% (based on ca210m OP). That means H2 is at 9% OP. I don't see any reason for backweighted margins normally (2019 and 2022 flat phased).
Extrapolating H2'23x2 at 9% OM out for 2024 delivers OP of ca230m after -82m of interest. This is comparable to 2019 levels.
Unless I have missed something, this will have a major re-rate as the business catches up the inflation curve over the next 18 months.
I agree Registerme, expect resistance at 140 and to some extent 120, but ulitmately a fairly obvious trading range between the two. Well said.
Has anyone got any insight as to why they all bought in same 24 hour period?
I have 60k shares. Let's see what happens..
But it's manageable
Based on interest rates at about 5% this is about +4% on previous norms over past decade. In a pessimistic case that this becomes the new norm and eventually as all that debt lapses, we are talking about 40m incremental finance cost based on 1bn debt. However there is inflationary pressure on the time value of money which will diminish the 1m debt over time in real terms and ratios. If absolute revenue and profit increases then PBT will increase partially offsetting the finance cost increase. Then management need to work on increasing margins 7>10% as they have outlined. If they get half way there then this should get back to 300-350 range. If interest rates fall earlier and faster we will get there faster and have potential to punch up above 400 in time.