Member Info for Schmoky

I agree Registerme, expect resistance at 140 and to some extent 120, but ulitmately a fairly obvious trading range between the two. Well said.

Has anyone got any insight as to why they all bought in same 24 hour period?

I have 60k shares. Let's see what happens..

But it's manageable

Based on interest rates at about 5% this is about +4% on previous norms over past decade. In a pessimistic case that this becomes the new norm and eventually as all that debt lapses, we are talking about 40m incremental finance cost based on 1bn debt. However there is inflationary pressure on the time value of money which will diminish the 1m debt over time in real terms and ratios. If absolute revenue and profit increases then PBT will increase partially offsetting the finance cost increase. Then management need to work on increasing margins 7>10% as they have outlined. If they get half way there then this should get back to 300-350 range. If interest rates fall earlier and faster we will get there faster and have potential to punch up above 400 in time.

Interesting final sentence about it how it would be misleading rather than simply not permitted, as would have bene easier to state. Unpacking that, if you confirmed they were barred, it could imply buyout activity but in reality was due to something mundane. So, in that situation nothing much going on. Conversely if they confirmed that they are not barred, and that were to be considerd misleading it could imply something was on its way that in future could change that. Riddles within riddles..

Perhaps markets were wary of few things. CFO leaving post GOG debacle, strikes impacting revenue/margin etc and so confirmation of no bad news equates to upside news from perspective of some investors.

What exactly is the Outlook for 2023? I know there is a path to 1bn revenue and 0.1bn ebitda 2027, but can't seem to find 2023. 1/4 those increments each year?

Closed ranks on 1st poster like seasoned centurions. Salute gentlemen!

I wonder if the CFO was a particularly prolific buyer of shares in any of his previous companies he worked

What are the other analyst price targets? I Can't seem to google find anywhere..

Not sure this is a massive win mate. Could have bought it yesterday for 122 with a 5p divi. Each to their own though!

I would hope it would be a lot less of course. So perhaps that is in my mind a worst case scenario indeed could be less time. I would expect a sharp recovery in the near term to 2-300. Then a mid term recovery towards 500

I posted something onthis a few weeks back. My view is NAV has roughly x4 but also shares in issue also roughly x4 the 2 net off. Which goes someway to explain why sp was 500 in 2007 and 500 in 2019.

Finance costs will go up, inflation has gone up. Prices/revenue have and will continue to rise as the rebalance levels out, in 5 years this will again be 500 paying out 3-4% dividend.

Totally agreed with sentiment here, but don't forget that there were 150m ordinary shares in issue in 2006, today there are 600m.

I was looking far back when SP was very high 2007 before the financial crisis to see how nex was doing. Actually looked similar to pre covid, 2.8bn 10% margin, £1bn net debt. But the thing I am struggling with was 150m shares in issue whereas today 600m. Equity of business today is also x4 vs 2007 in balance sheet. Anyone able to compare the 2 and theoretical sp impact? I.e does x4 equity cancel out the x4 share in issue and the historic sp is comparable to today (in theory)?

It also mentions the additional scale in the region will drive operational synergies. This would, I hope, lead to higher margin in both the new and existing services.

Another way to read it then is material exposure to interest rates in 13 months. Perhaps this is the issue?

:D

Thanks for the heads up.

I'll sell my entire holding first thing.