Member Info for Schmoky

Notably, the de-rampers have evaporated. Enjoy the peace!

Looks like you are right. Say ciao to sub 50

Looks like 50 ready to be smashed..

Glad I got back in after small wobble on part if holding. Psychological aspect of this is fascinating.

Avzalor is not Cosmens I don't think. Just another spanish investor

@WT how are you connecting Inversis with the other 2 companies? Quick search tells me not owned by commens.

Where does that take Cosmens to in total now?

Who knows we might get a bit of good news for once and increased FY guidance with H1 results..

Also wondering if hybrid will actually be sub 10%. Googling Ba3 hybrids i see some even 6-7% recently?

One major risk is credit rating. They are still investment grade but at the cusp. Further slip ups (missed forecasts) could potentially lead to a downgrade to junk making the hybrid a more serious issue. So again, just deliver a steady recovery please..

The have already signalled they intend to reset the hybrid at market rate in annual report. This is expensive but manageable. As long as the deliver forecast and preferably a bit more they can plod on to recovery. I imagine one day when SP is in a better place an CR will cone out of the blue, but as paddy says at that point may be less of an issue and eventually help SP with shoring up of BS. Maybe less distressed than I admit I thought and so don't expect any low NA offers to be accepted. As Sneedway alludes needs to be > $1m to cover lost EBITDA and have meaningful impact. I wonder which they didn't wait another year to do this.

JG, assume so as well, fully loaded cash flow. Increase of hybrid to 11% is incremental £36m. Which is offset by not paying dividend vs 2023. Restructuring and provisions was 71m, this surely is lower going forwards, acquisitions 60m again just stop acquiring. Plus more operating profit expected. Looks to me fitch being either very cautious or assuming debt repayments in there somewhere to address leverage? Either way I don't see a cash flow issue and neither does fitch, read last sentence:

" Cash Flow Generation to Remain Weak: MCG management have refocused growth on its asset-light business, to mitigate the impact of lower profitability on its credit profile. This results in lower growth capex than earlier forecasts but maintenance capex is forecast to remain high relative to profits, resulting in negative free cash flow (FCF) on average in the next three years. However, we believe MCG has scope to postpone or increase efficiency on capex and we do not expect dividends payments till 2026."

I am asking myself as I am not clear what happens to the hybrid in nov 25. There were posts on this yesterday. The going concern statement covers as you say up to June 25 and so this wasn't picked up in that modelling.

However , I would point to fitch report which doesn't seem to make a big deal about it, keeps BBB- credit rating and says it might be renewed at 11%. If that is feasible then I think also less issue and this will buy them some years to turn things around. However I have also seen posts claiming no calling the hybrid could convert to debt triggering covenant breach.

Ignoring the trolls..

What is the potential pathway back do we think there is here? Mid-ball offer on NA say USD 0.8m. Clears the hybrid and a bit of debt and plod on?

But if not then guaranteed covenant breach therefore likely RI if we can renegotiate covenants?

HC my worry after our posts yesterday though the hybrid is far away it is already inevitable. If the NA sale were not to happen there would likely be a covenant breach. SP will tank. Therefore this is a distressed sale. As someone else pointed out, if the offer price is very low, but BOD forced to accept it the future post hybrid resolution could also still be bleak with no NA bus, smaller EBITDA. I sold some of my holding on this logic, still hold a significant amount.

Could it be there is plenty of security from salable assets for creditors however not for shareholders driving a disconnect? I don't know the situation. In these other shares if comparable or different

Based on what we are saying here it will be NA sale at any value, or RI guaranteed. SP indicates the latter.

OK, learning! And what happens if not called back?

At HV or anyone!

What is the dilution nd overall impact of calling equity component on hybrid, does it settle the hybrid at same time and remove need for RI? Only altenative at MC of £300 a RI of say £600m will BE 2:1. I calculate I can still get back to b/e eventually but will likely take years if that is the route, I guess I would just sit on it.

What about split it. 250m bond, 250m re-issue smaller hybrid?

OK clear, so they will have to do that?

If its a choice of massive equity dilution. Covenant breach or re-issue hybrid at higher cost I will have to be the latter? Then recover a couple of years, get margin up and potential business sale re-attempt when in stronger position.