Member Info for Schmoky

Mobico priced for failure. This is -96% down from ATH, that is information. We are moving to a downturn in the economic cycle, was happening already before Iran. Mobico is simply too weak to weather a high inflation/ rate hike environment. Appreciate some may disagree in outcome but all are afraid of it . So if you are an investor in Mobico listen to your gut and keep small <5-10% of portfolio so you can survive wipeout

What % of portfolio are people allocated to Mobico here?

Fuel @ 4% of revenue is about 100m @$60 a barrel. At $100 it’s 166m, @$150 a barrel it’s 250m. Hedging delays, not avoids. It further tightens the trap and reduces ability to deleverage.

He said zero already, if you took his advice you’d all be better off right now. I think best case scenario oil drops back and SP creeps up and stagnates in 20s for a while before terminal decline, worst case (what is happening now) oil does not come down and it goes to zero. Food for thought; oil historically has a 20:1 gold ratio with mean reversion to it and at $60 a barrel was unchanged from 2000s after huge amounts of inflation. So are we all confident oil is going back down?

Paddy and many here will be having very frugal retirements.

Best you can do is get out on a bounce, recent jump to 33p was a lifeboat or any that grabbed it!

Mobico is trapped, priced for existential problems. Going into a high inflation interest hike environment will likely mean failure or severe dilution, status quo it can’t get or trap either. I had the blinkers on myself for years past Covid, assumed it would come back. They just couldn’t get the margins back up. There are some pathways out but they are long and unlikely to happen. Simplest way to see this is the share price, -95%+ from highs is information. You have to ask yourselves whether to ignore that information , assume you are right and the whole market is wrong or the other way around. I worked this out at 35p exited I a big loss but making gains now elsewhere.

Uncertainty in Iran, uncertainty on oil. If oil goes to $150 and sits there you can expect return to 5-10% inflation within months, recession, rate hikes and end to business cycle. So levered shares get hit. Hopefully passes soon risk fades but that’s what is happening for now.

Operationally it’s irrelevant of course but mobico is likely considered a riskier asset these days. Capital will allocate more or less to risk assets depending on cycle position and therefore impact valuations.

Does anyone know where we are in the business cycle and how this might impact outlook for Mobico? Seems higher risk for institutional investors who tighten belts when uncertain.

If millennium and citadel were happy to short £2m sub 30p, they must be picking be licking their lips at 37p? Surely? :D

Hopefully no changes to short on Monday. Better I think to let them sit it out in the pressure pot and little longer :D some of those tranches will be 30-40% underwater and getting worse by the day..

Wasnt there another chap who was long and cashed in his loss to switch to short at ATL?

If you've learned nothing else, it's not to expect prompt RNS updates. D

I'd be surprised if anything came through in the next couple of weeks.

Fantastic news if they have increased shorts, sold and now we only have the buy side pending with SP up.

..example, why not just trim the long position?

On the Blackrock e

Looks like there gambling blind. Doubling down on loss day before.

Punch and Judy show on again!! ><

The share price is going to crash to zero.. "Oh no it isn't, oh yes it is!"

Yeah agreed GS, looks good from here.

Yes exactly. Agreed, only think i worried about is: is it guaranteed they can renew with rating downgrade? If they can insee no issue just wait for things to turn around a bit 1-2 years