Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
GOG is another one, CFO effectively sacked on accounting scandal. Intra day SP c400, people saying no-one will touch it for years its dead, suspension, game over and... buyout at 1600. I was in it heavy and sold out two thirds before it jumped as i was fatigued being stuck in it. Massive regret. I fear this one has potential to break some hearts the same way!
I would think it is as JG alludes, to give time to demonstrate the business potential. By doing that it should stand up and attract wider interest. Only when potential bidders sense competition around them will they lose hope of getting it on the cheap and instead bid decent prices. So it pins on how actually attractive it is and how much interest it garners. Can it reliably deliver margin for the buyer > their borrowing cost? FY23 2.4% does not deliver that, but I think they said Q4 run rate implied 4.5-5% margin in 2024 and if by Q3'24 the new leadership can bolster this upwards it might just become attractive?
How would price get decided? Cosmens would obviously do anything to get cheap and have increasing voting power. On the other hand its probably worth £2-3 on open market. Wondering in what scenerario that wouldn't be achieved and the likelihood of that
Fair point on margin being worse tha i estimated if revenue is higher. In fact it may be likely as they seemed to switch away from margin guidance..
As you say still looking at a possible 7.5-8% next year with the possibility of further margin recovery down the line. The additional interest will be offset by a 1bn jump in revenue vs pre-covid. And this does not consider any drop in interest rates on a medium horizon
Someone else has pointed this out yesterday, apologies I lost track of who.
We have H1 OP of 4% with FY outlook at 7% (based on ca210m OP). That means H2 is at 9% OP. I don't see any reason for backweighted margins normally (2019 and 2022 flat phased).
Extrapolating H2'23x2 at 9% OM out for 2024 delivers OP of ca230m after -82m of interest. This is comparable to 2019 levels.
Unless I have missed something, this will have a major re-rate as the business catches up the inflation curve over the next 18 months.
I agree Registerme, expect resistance at 140 and to some extent 120, but ulitmately a fairly obvious trading range between the two. Well said.
Has anyone got any insight as to why they all bought in same 24 hour period?
I have 60k shares. Let's see what happens..