Member Info for wealthtrasfer

@james has already sold hence the change of tone. To be fair the momentum has been called fairly well, so far. The company has a bad rep for the last few years based on delivering expectations. I would go as far as we were misled on several occasions under the previous management. I live in hope that the new management are different, conservative and will be more trustworthy and capable and a turn around is definitely possible, but it needs a lot to go right. Let’s see over the next few months if that plays out. Lots of opportunity for JO and others to play the natural ups and downs over that time. Don’t expect too much from audited accounts looking back over the 15 month period to March imo. It’s all in the next 6 months to the 9 month year end that’s going to matter and then consolidating and keeping momentum into 2027. In other words instilling confidence again which is going to take a huge effort and some time. The rewards could be large but the risk is still high.

I’m sure JO is correct but I think the most active play is when you hold a large position which is not in a good position and you can’t easily liquidate, the easiest and safest play is to short your long. Then simply wait for confirmation your long is safe and going to recover before unwinding the short.

Rob - that’s an interesting idea and may add more to share value and improve covenants than a one off release.

I believe the 200m euro is the improvement in value over the term, not a cash back payment. I don’t believe there will be much ‘cash’ at all. Just a release of provisions. Although it’s unknown and paraphrasing, , the board said that the contracts will now be positive when taken together. They may still need the provisions for it to be positive, we simply don’t know. I’m hoping for an overall £100m non cash bottom line release, but as with everything it’s a guess.

I suspect there is quite a bit of hedging of long positions in the short holdings. They won’t care or unwind until the results are out and a demonstrable route upwards is confirmed.

Apologies for typos but you get the drift

If the remaining term if the contracts is in balance, or better (as stated in prior RNS) then there could be a £100m write back of provisions to the bottom line profit. If taken in this financial year rather than retrospectively and then added to the £75m run rate cost savings and other productivity gains then I would expect a significant uplift in management forecast for the 9 month period ending Dec 26. A significant bottom line profit for the first time in many years should be the outcome when reported in March next year.

Aimless - if dropping on no news is worrying, what was a 16% rise on no news?

I love to see you and FP back, I know that a rise is coming then.

There are no trading update delays.

Mischief and misinformation.

15 month year ending 31st March due to new Auditors requesting time to complete. Therefore have until end of June. Next financial year is 9 months and therefore reverting to end of Dec

Year end, back to historical year end and reporting.

It’s all there in the RNS’s for all to see !

JO as much as I enjoy your hubris, the fate of Mobico is not going to turn on whether the Iran / us conflict resolves to your satisfaction. It is going to depend on several independent outcomes. Us/iran is one short term issue. The only outcome that is going to really going to return the company to where it should be (not 30p or 40p) is demonstrating £100m operating cost reduction and free cash generation. A demonstration that debt is not a problem medium term rather than short term macro.

Did WMATA cancel the contract to cap their own losses from litigation as they are concerned that they may lose? .this puts a stop on Diamonds operating losses it also puts a stop to any claims other than loss of profit.

The bond price is as indicative as the share price. The company under Garret talked a good game but didn’t deliver on any of its promises or targets. So the market is not at all convinced that the debt can be managed. On top of that we now have future fuel price pressures which were sited as an issue in previous results, albeit they are largely hedged for the near future. The whole thing is going to turn on the new management delivering the cost savings and deliver a profit and recovering cash flow to service the debt. It is doable if several ducks line up in a row. The company has suffered so many set backs over the last few years of which many were not in their control. It’s been an endless beating which is why both the share price and bond price is in the doldrums. We need a change of luck and management action and actually deliver some strong results. This I believe can happen for the 9 month accounts April to Dec this year and that the management will conservatively upgrade the forecast.

@john33 it’s not Mobico getting sued. Mobico are suing WMATA for reducing their routes awarded under contact. WMATA are arguing Mobico didn’t deliver to contract.

@helloDave the company said it expected to resolve in the next 18months

There’s probably 4-6 weeks before update u less they can turn it around quickly. Plenty of time for taking positions

When all the loons come out (FPower et al) you know the bottom is nearly in!

There’s only one possible offeror and they are going to need big backers to settle the debt. They (Cosmens) tried before and didn’t go through with it due to debt and that was at a time of lower debt level, so it would seem unlikely.

The share price holding up reasonably well given Citadel, Shaw and GLG all selling and increasing their short positions and now Aberforth selling. There is an equal and opposite force in play.

Bladey -Q1 is April - June this year. Reporting July/Aug. Returning to Jan - Mar for 2027. We are waiting on 15 month audited accounts due in the next few weeks. The audited accounts are unlikely to show anything we don’t know already but the updated 9 month forecast for this years accounts will likely be upgraded to take into account German Rail resolution and accelerated cost savings.

@John33 ask Winton and GLG, they probably know more than you/us