Member Info for wealthtrasfer

as expected germany doing real damage. im not sure i believe a word that the board says about the contractual responsibility of the client to make good. don't think thats going to happen - also don't think its going to be straight forward otherwise the board would have applied legal pressure or threatened to walk in order to avoid these losses! and they didn't and haven't, so they are either liars (as in presenting an opportunity as much more than it is in reality - something they have done repeatedly for 3 years) or they are just very weak and not doing enough to protect the company and survive.

fire sale of nasb in desperation. don't believe garat's spin about x50, utter b'****. its around 8 x normalised. absolute joke. he now has to resign. indefensible. still think he's a genius waiting for the right time to sell ?.... you know who im talking to? we have been deceived for 3 years. garat has to now go - immediately.

i assume there is a deal coming soon from first group for the uk business. unfortunately we will have to keep germany.

wedriveu will be sold also in the next 12-24 months and guess who will then move for the shares of whats going to be left. look for cosmens picking up the shares over the coming weeks and months. its going to happen , just sooner than expected.

The EQT / Flix investment demonstrates where Mobico could be. The £3b valuation is at half the Adjusted Profits and slightly more than half of the revenues at Mobico. Meaning, at the same valuation, Mobico could be £6 not 60p.

Next week we should see a small statutory profit. Thats what is needed, no more adjusted profits with 'exceptional' 'unforeseen' 'out of our control' costs resulting in another book loss. The market is just going to see it as more of the same and look elsewhere until it changes. A £50m bottom line, real world PBT is the min needed.

No dividend now but a clear path to dividends for 2026. Organic deleveraging at £50m+ a year and a bottom line statutory profit before tax of £100m for 2026.

It seems as though the management team are now in a much better place, Germany, Uk, Chair, CFO. Much better. Jury out on Garat still. Hope the company has and is given the time to finally start recovering .

Thanks ForewardThoughts. Interesting read and not all together surprising. I agree with the take on school bus sale - major achievement if we get a sale at a reasonable valuation anytime Soon.

Haha glad to be of some use to you. Keep smiling.

Its catching!

M007 - I see school is out.

Fish you are correct that German Revenue is a small % of global trade. However the contract provisions are disproportionate and have already done considerable damage (£100m +) and may well add to that in this years results. We will see.

Fish - Only bidder is Cosmen - price isn't going to be where it should be. Unfortunately looking more and more like a better way out of the never ending series of knock backs and problems. Self inflicted and market issues just seem to be relentless with Mobico !

Yes, radio silence. Just what you need when the company is lacking positivity. No PR, No Marketing, No Shareholder Engagement (at least not the general investor market). Just silence and a void for us to fill. Hopefully, if we are still around in the current format, the new Chair will bring some changes.

JG - the delay (and theres no doubt it is a delay, no matter what anyone says!) is down to either the Board not approving the report or the auditors not approving it (it has to be done, numbers wise and also has to be released as soon as possible when done - so only logical thought is that its not approved by one of the two parties).

What reasons could there be for not approving?

- working on providing further information requested by the auditors - Likely

- representing numbers following auditor findings - Possible

- waiting for in house update to improve the report (such as NASB update, German Rail finance) - Possible

- trying to workaround a problem highlighted in the report or by the auditors (losses, debt, cash etc) - Possible

I think its more than 50:50 that there is an issue rather than the Rose Tinted view and given the recent record in reporting I would go more to 80:20. Doesn't hurt to prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

The best outcome would be:

- results delayed as we are waiting on final approval of a sale of the UK Bus and German Rail business to First Group. Proceeds reduce to debt to manageable levels.

- US school bus no longer for sale and it along with Transit is listed separately in the US

- ALSA goes private or lists on the European market

- Cash is returned to long suffering share holders so they can go off and risk it all again

I'm trying to balance Lara's positive points (all perfectly valid) with the warning signs.

Chair announced as leaving

UK CEO left already

Results delayed about as late as is possible

No update on sale - required to improve debt burden

No update on millstone german contract - that as stated by the board is 'critical' to year outcome

A real conundrum of an investment this one. Should be good but each time it looks to be turning, another problem slaps it back down. Its hard to remain positive with this shares potential.

Poker - do you have a positive view on the wait for results?

Lara - my post was only in relation to why results may be delayed. Your points may well be correct but they don't explain the silence.

The organic results should be okay on day to day business. We know that they are on track and that margins have improved since with fare increases etc... I also think that the debt is continuing to be serviceable and not todays issue.

Why would the BoD wait to deliver otherwise good news? unless the results are terrible... this is the question we are all now fearing.

Only way the results are terrible is if Germany is as bad as expected and with no agreement from the German Authorities to compensate - meeting the spirit of the contracts. Delivering another large provision and loss. This is the only thing I can think of that is delaying the results now - German Contract Negotiations - not NASB sale.

There would be no need to delay and concern the market if the results are good. They would just deliver the results and then deliver the news later that a sale of NASB has been successful. No drama.

The only remaining large risk is German Rail. Large provision and book and cash loss - worsening the cash and debt position. Then no sale of NASB on top - creating cash / finance problems.

This is my worst case scenario and as usual is one thats being considered as a result of no information forthcoming from the BoD.

Ps and fwiw I’m not feeling A .is the likely outcome given current markets.

Got my tin hat on waiting for the update…….

Let’s hope so. Numbers must be done! Waiting for….

A. positive news on NASB sale and / or German Rail provision release

Or

B. Scrambling around for something to soften negative news related to not delivering A.

You really don't understand m007j.

I'm saying nothing of the sort and if you understood the business you would know why. This is nothing to do with German contracts becoming a bigger business. Where have you been the last couple of years?

M007j - the sarcasm exposes a lack of understanding of the German Rail contracts. We will see at results. Maybe its resolved by then, maybe not. As Genghis says, theres nothing left to discuss until then.

I believe we will see some good numbers all round, with the notable exception of Germany. Organic SP recovery dependant on what German Rail result looks like. Everything else is a bonus.

'Your'