Member Info for wealthtrasfer

Poker - I already have more questions than answers :). After 2 departures and a promotion, I now have a few more. No doubt everyone will try and fill the gaps left open !

Thanks Winston, good find, wherever that was? I couldn’t see the skills match when Alex was appointed. Thought I was missing something !

Poker - running a bus in veggie oil or whether a workshop engineer is star of the week is hardly world news but they do manager to put that out. I would have thought the COO move was rather more news worthy than the sporadic low level news occasionally put on the website. Whether the COO in Mobico’s case is exec or not is still worth letting the world know and his message is also worthy of general release. All in IMO and what I would do. They need a rocket up the PR department, create some buzz and interest and in turn support the embattled company, its employees and shareholders.

JG - those guys are running the show, so I guess anything is possible. I would have thought of that was the intent though they would not support offloading debt via asset sale and present them selves as the only option with ALSA. Who knows. All I see is a company that doesn’t try and sell itself. It needs to be more ZUM!

Its been typical for years and why many of us are critical of the company's communications. They can publicise Coaches running on vegetable oil or Latino week but not the appointment and promotion of a new Exec Director a week after it published in the press. They need to up their PR game and create some interest and momentum.

I actually think its a very smart and logical move. Fransisco has proven himself a very good manager at ALSA. Its also positive that the Cosmens are using him in a wider role.

Heir Apparent!

Not sure if it’s notifiable but something on the company newsfeed would be nice.

“Dear Owners, you have a new exec director. He’s really good and proven very successful. I think he’ll do a great job replacing Ignacio in a couple of years once he understands how we Cosmens like to work. “

I guess IR is just too busy.

If a company reports half yearly then I understand that the closed period is year end to the reporting date.

Offgrid - Results have been early to mid March in the last 3-4 years (except last year as it was delayed) and previously sometimes end of Feb. I doubt next couple of weeks, would expect mid March again this year but just a guess.

If only we could achieve one euro for our German Rail business.... Happy days !

HoplessValue - it’s predominantly passenger numbers, some driver shortages.

Lara, if PTA isn't resolved amicably by results there may well be a sizeable Onerous Contract Provision (in addition to the already £100m). Read the H1 report and Q3 update on Germany. It gives you the numbers. I don't know exactly what it might be but if you go on the published numbers then it could and may well be a large provision. This will dent the adjusted result and provide a negative net result. It also has CASH implications.

I'm not trying to be negative, far from it, Im in here way beyond comfort, just pointing out what the board has told everyone. Its there in black and white if you care to read it. The easy number to look at is passenger volumes.

Regards Germany: The economical impacts and political impacts could not be foreseen, however there is, as we are led to understand, a contractual mechanism in place to rectify that and to ensure that the intentions under which the contract was signed are met. We don't know the terms of that mechanism and so are relying on the what we are told in updates and therefore we are reasonably expecting a resolution, from the current situation, to be provided in what we hope is Mobico's favour.

What was known by the company, but pre-dates the current CEO (but not the non-exec Mr Cosmen), is that mistakes were made in the bid which have forced Onerous Contract Provisions that will not be recovered. What again we don't know is to what extent they are and what this means for the overall contract performance.

There was mention from the outgoing CFO that they are fully expecting to recover something.

We wont know until the talks with the PTA are concluded. No doubt due to the mixture of reasons for the losses, there will be wriggle room for the board to spin a narrative either way.

As mentioned before, I imagine (but don't know), is that PTA discussions will impact beyond Mobico's contract and will therefore be lengthy and complicated.

What is needed is clarity to end speculation. Even if its bad, at least its quantifiable and thats what the market is looking for.

Poker - to be fair FACTS are pretty thin on the ground and its why opinion is rife and varying and why the share price is sliding ahead of news/facts. Its the whole point of boards like this isn't it? being sometimes useful to share opinion and get a broad range of ideas and possibilities, whether we agree or not and to post what we see as balance.

Many of us on here think the company has not communicated well. I accept your points and that a company isn't going to spoon feed etc... but there is a distinct lack of interest in updating the market generally on what the company does and when it has in the past it has proven not to be completely accurate.

I think we all accept the company has faced unprecedented macro issues which was no fault of the Board. It has also made calls which haven't worked out as hoped and that were in their control. It is a fact that other companies in the same sector have faired much better and therefore frustration and questioning of this board is only to be expected.

That all said, the company does now appear to be dealing with the issues and I believe we are close to resolving the last couple of remaining ones. Lets hope so and lets hope we get some positive facts to discuss rather than filling the void with best guesses.

Both views @pokerchips and @tmgirth have valid points imo. This recovery story isn't quite over yet though imo and the market doesn't think it is either. As Helen Cowing says, the divisions are at different stages of recovery.

The last stage is going to be Germany. When this is sorted, hopefully in Q1, we will be finally be ready to return to profit.

The adjusted margin for 2024 is not in doubt in my view but bottom line could still be horrible due to Onerous Contract Provisions. This is what is holding the recovery back.

With the statement that the Hybrid will be rolled over and NASB starting to return to profit, I'm not so concerned for the immediate sale of NASB.

I just want to see German Rail contracts adjusted to meet the contract terms and allow a fair profit. If that is forthcoming then all is good for 2025 and going forward (macro shocks aside).

Definitely don’t see Helen Weir going as a loss. We need a more ruthless direction.

ChangeofPace - Im sure here is a compromise and Mobico will be very willing to work with them especially if resolved quickly before it impacts the results announced in March. As we know, the contracts provide for an equitable solution and that contracts should be allowed to achieve their reasonable expected outcomes for both sides. If the PTA doesnt play fair with the contract I would assume Mobico can hand it back if it deems the terms haven't been met and all avenues to resolve it have been exhausted. How much time it takes is the key to this. If it delays past end of Feb then the can is going to get well and truly kicked down the road and we aren't going to see any benefit for a further 6-12 months, which will take the shine off the other good things going on.

...things look better than the SP suggests:

If you look at H1 2024 vs 2023 and take Q3 update at face value then it looks as though guidance will be easily achieved and should be exceeded. With the one exception of German Rail, which could bring the whole result back down.

ALSA could be close to the lower end of adjusted guidance on its own c. £160m

US is recovering well in Q3 and could add adjusted £60m+

UK could be about neutral with profit forecast for this year.

German Rail could be + or - a large number depending on PTA negotiations conclusion (likely a - number)

Higher finance costs balanced by cost cutting initiatives.

In addition to the Adjusted profit at high end of expectations, again without German Rail, then I would expect a return to bottom line profit also. Demonstrating that debt is manageable and corner turned.

HoplessValue - I agree with your outlook. Although Helen has stated that the Hybrid will be kept. This will add a further £250m to the debt as the 50% equity component will be lost. Pushing the bank covenants close to the limit. This is unlikely to be comfortable or desired in the medium term although looks manageable in the short term. I would think with progress on US and UK turnaround then a new Hybrid offering would be achieved on reasonable rates albeit higher than current.

Its a pity that the German Rail business is holding Mobico back at this stage as otherwise things look much better than the SP suggests.

Carrington - Mobico gets 80% from sales abroad. I'm not saying that the a share cant get dragged down with an index generally, as it happens all the time and shows also why markets aren't always right. Im just saying that there is a lack of understanding from investors / the market where the company gets its income.