Member Info for wealthtrasfer

"I dont know what some of you will do when the Results do come out...what are you all going to whine about then ?"

You're attitude probably!

There may be balls in the air. But we’ve come to expect hand grenades the last few years. Let’s hope that a later than usual report is due to waiting for good news for a change.

It would be reasonable to expect interest in the NASB given potential growth rates over the next few years. This is a worldwide report and mentions National Express:

https://www.thebusinessresearchcompany.com/report/school-and-employee-bus-services-global-market-report

"School And Employee Bus Services Market Size 2025 And Growth Rate

The school and employee bus services market size has grown strongly in recent years. It will grow from $65.01 billion in 2024 to $71.12 billion in 2025 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4%. The growth in the historic period can be attributed to strong economic growth in emerging markets, low interest rate environment, rapid urbanization, and lifestyle changes and increased safety threats."

"School And Employee Bus Services Market Growth Forecast

The school and employee bus services market size is expected to see strong growth in the next few years. It will grow to $93.75 billion in 2029 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.2%."

Genghis, its good that the PTA is supporting recruitment as that would appear to be the responsibility of the Train Operators. No mention of equitable support in relation to contracts but I guess thats a separate issue. The language doesn't sound too supportive though and I doubt from reading the press that Mobico is going to be compensated as much as previously thought and not any time soon either. Hope Im wrong and all is sunshine and light in the YE update!

"Are just trying to be stupid , or what ? or are you advising that you need to be spoon fed to the level of a school boy ?"

It must be tough being the only grown up in the room. After the last few months, I understand better now where you are coming from, regards Mobico, and that helps me with giving weight to future comments. Thanks.

Poker - your defences get ever more obtuse. There may well have been a few more snow days than prior year but my point is snow days are a fact of life for NASB, unpredictable and varied, so build that in, go cautiously and then don’t have to make excuses. Achieve to the upside even. BOD also stated that by Q2 that would be recovered. You may or may not remember I asked at the time “how do you recover lost days at school…. Open on weekends ???” I don’t think so. Lo and behold the lost revenue to extra snow days wasn’t fully recovered in H1. It was my attempt at trying to balance your equally absurd attacks on anyone trying to reason with the current situation rather than just banging the drum and cheerleading. Roll on results.

The view on this board seems to be fairly united that the company and therefore the BoD have not performed well in relation to the market.

This may be too simplistic a view as it has performed extremely well in parts.

The BoD is Spain centric and therefore understands that market well which is seen in the steller performance of Alsa.

It lost its focus on US School Bus (transit has faired better as it has been run buy the founder whilst being bought out by Mobico) and the UK management have not faired well. This was addressed in US school bus by Garat and it seems to have turned and is now improving. In the UK the jury is out but a lot of mistakes made in tendering particularly in Germany have poured petrol on the fire created by macros following Covid.

They don't help themselves as they don't communicate well and come across as distant and uninterested in private investors. Perhaps thats the European way.

Winter snow happened this year, last year and many years before. The BoD know this and should have it factored into the numbers, which they didn’t last year and it was used as an excuse. They also stated it would be fully recovered in Q2 which it wasn’t. It shouldn’t be an excuse this year.

Genhis - no doubt. This UK company run from Spain, effectively controlled by Spanish investors and the Chair in waiting also in Spain.

It has been commonly held that Cosmens want Alsa and they will get it. Only question is when and how and whether PI’s get to be compensated or shafted.

With a consistent lack of information we are left to fear the worst. Chair and uk CEO leaving doesn’t bode well. They would have stayed to take the glory before moving on after announcing if there was anything positive to announce.

So we are left hanging as usual with the prospect of no progress on deleveraging beyond any organic reduction and a bomb drop from German rail, both realistic respects based on Mobico performance last 5 years.

Terrible communication. We are left very vulnerable.

Germany aside there should be a very small Statutory Profit Before Tax. If no RRX adjustment then as adjusting items were £190m last year, only £50m - £70m apply this year (theres bound to be something new, so call it £90m. Includes amortisation and restructuring)

That would deliver an adjusted £100m (if all things stayed equal, less finance costs of £90m-£95m

So a small statutory profit before tax (£0m-£20m)

Its important that the debt covenant gearing drops. Hopefully 2.6% or at least not more than H1 at 2.8%.

Cash may be negative predominantly due to Canary Bus.

New contracts of at least 5% + of revenue to maintain possibility of organic deleverage. Mostly coming from WeDriveU.

UK at Break even or small profit.

That would bring £50m+ in to play for 2025 and £100m in sight for 2026.

I think you are referring to the expected release or partial release of the onerous contract provision. It was touted last year as expected to be partially recovered. Some of it was down to errors in the bid and some was the indexation changes and then there was also the general contract provision for an equitable Outcome for all Stakeholders.

So my view is that if all the contract stuff is resolved then that will solve the problem including revenue drop.

My issue is the short term outcome for FY results if it’s not resolved.

Since H1 there has been a much larger drop in passenger numbers (roughly from 10 to 20% from memory) which according to the accounts will have a much larger impact than £5m.

Kevin Gale is an Ops man and has been through is time at Mobico. No commercial, sales or financial focus as far as I can see from the brief outline of his past roles. Seems odd to give a CEO title unless its temporary or 'in name only' now being run from Spain.

What does that mean for the UK business? the appointment would fit with a strategy for a sale?

Graviton - agreed it is loose language.

I dont think Cosmens would want US to sell off later. Ive said all along my view is that US will go at which point Cosmens can make a move. UK should also go and will at some point, whether its before or after US, imo.

Thanks Poker. It will be interesting to see if Jorge does become Chair. A very strong ALSA hold on the company. My view would be that if he does then perhaps Cosmens move for the company will not be imminent as he would have to step aside due to conflict of interest. If he doesn't step up then in my view a bid becomes more likely.

Could be a coincidence but significant coincidences are rarely 'coincidences' imo.

Thanks.

Ill health and timing to leave in June with confidence major issues will be across the line by then, both reasonable possibilities, as is disagreements internally on direction.

Interesting point Graviton on Global Transport. I hadn't really considered that and it is right. There are very few synergies across Mobico divisions. Its part of the problem with the company. Where they focus their knowledge and energy (Spain) they are the most successful as its all about relationships and navigating local politics and legals. They don't even share the majority of technology. The only advantage is the ability to borrow and fund expansion: Spread risks across markets, geographical and political domains which will help investors lend.

ChangeofPace - I'm confident that 'adjusted' profits will come in as guided. I'm also pretty confident, especially if Alex Jenson has walked, that there will be onerous contract provisions in Germany that will take an expected small PBT to a loss, potentially a large one.

Would Helen Weir walk out a few weeks before announcing the successful sale of NASB and / or the re-neg of German Rail Contracts. The potential re-rating that would bring would be a great story to leave on - if she wanted to leave? I cannot see it! Doesn't make any sense, much like a lot this company does.

Whilst waiting fro Pokers positive spin, the worst case is German Rail makes a large provision, including cash implications. NASB sale is static and going nowhere and then the company announces there's going to be a fund raise that handily puts the Cosmen's firmly in the driving seat to take it over and go private, spinning off the parts they don't want.

Private investors will never get a fair price if this goes private.

Someone tell me another realistic scenario. I could do with a lift!

Poker - you tend to bring a positive opinion to this board and I’m struggling with why the Chair and possibly UK CEO leave prior to, potentially, major positive achievements with the sale of NASB and sorting out German Rail contracts respectively. I think you’d agree that most senior execs would wait to take glory for the major achievement (highlighting it in their newly minted cv) before walking on to pastures greener. I can’t see a scenario where it’s likely they left just as positive news imminent. I would genuinely like to hear something positive I’m missing ?

Here’s my first question around filling the gaps: under what circumstances would the Group Chair and CEO overseeing UK and Germany leave the company? (Coincidences aside)