Member Info for wealthtrasfer

@jjones - I don’t think you’re a shorter unless you’re a Bot. To state …” there is nothing that Mobico is doing to improve” shows a complete lack of understanding of the company. Are you just here for a wind up like FartPower!

What we need is a sustained recovery into July results. Once the German Rail details are known and cost cutting details provided along with the new and hopefully upgraded profit guidance then we should continue to improve to the March 2027 results. The reason I believe this is critical is not that a share price improvement on its own is an obvious benefit to long holders it’s to ensure that Cosmens don’t get to make a move on the cheap. We need it to be back at at least 60p by 2026 results to stop that happening imo

All the horsemen of the apocalypse nicely assembled. Quickdip FlipFlop is back or are you FartPower. Time to hibernate and come back when the loons have gone.

Rob - there is a $70m performance earn out but I am told that it won’t be achieved so the are not expecting to get any of it (for clarity I thought it was possible to receive but it apparently isn’t going to happen)

NAV has been decimated by write downs following Covid and more recently NASB. Question is what is ALSA worth? Net debt is around (ex leases and cash) £800m plus the hybrid. Let’s say uk and Germany is worth £0. WeDriveU is worth over half the hybrid. That would leave worst case around £1b. ALSA - £1b= x?

FP - are you a secret love child of D J Trump or Gollum or both.

You’re the one that called the bottom at 19p. You need to have a word with yourself and stop annoying everyone else.

FP - use this break in hostilities to nip and see your doctor and get the meds checked. You flip flop more than Gandhi’s sandals

You don’t make it easy FP. One minute sell, then buy then sell then buy…… I don’t think you or anyone else knows what you are doing

Fuel cost hedging brings a £30m fuel benefit in 2028. Let’s say your version of reality plays out and fuel goes back above the highs of Russia Ukraine invasion and stays there for 3 years. By the. Do you think Mobico pricing may have also gone up to reflect that? Meanwhile if prices go up and stay up then at worst it wipes out the expected £30m gain already coming. Only thing of any concern is if inflation drives interests up and stays up

For 2-3 years the that won’t help but debt will be lower also by then as debt falling due is repaid from current cash for the next 2 years.

Momentum had turned at year end unaudited. Trump spoiled the party. This will languish until audited accounts and forecast update end of June / July. Then I doubt that the dark forces will keep it down beyond that unless of course the whole world is in a mess due to ongoing oil/gas concerns. So everyone has a few long weeks to play around. I’ll

Come back after the update.

Selling off assets is a given in my view. I can’t see them growing WeDriveU beyond getting in good shape for. Sale.

Broker price targets up (38p). Bond prices Up. Share price…….. down!

15 month audited accounts likely to reflect 12 month unuadited. Expected positive Update for 26.

Oil and inflation effect likely to be relatively short term in relation to debt profile and fuel hedging.

Thunder - although direct compensation for historical losses have not been declared, we dont know if there is some mechanism for dealing with some of those, namely the cost indicies for calculating energy usage and potentially the costs incurred through track maintenance issues.

However what Mobico has stated is that with the new contract agreements, the combined operation in Germany, should be neutral and no further losses incurred. That should enable the release of the remaining onerous contract provisions that whilst being non cash will impact the bottom line results for the 9 month accounts this year from March to Dec (returning to the original year end this year). That will produce a bottom line profit in excess of £100m.

I expect the 9 months accounts to Dec 26 to be 'turbo charged' results. They will contain the most profitable half of the year, hopefully no further contingent liabilities or one off costs (other than restructuring costs) as well as the release of the German onerous contract provisions.

I now see this being the start of the recovery in March 2027 with a strong bottom line profit for the first time in years.

Until The Donald forgets what he said yesterday

I doubt Trumps attention span will last 2 weeks never mind 2 years.

Sad thing is that Flatliner thinks that people will sell on what he posts ;)

On a long haul flight so missed the fun. Catching up now but general view for me is one of renewed confidence in the board and liking the generally cautious approach to targets with a view of over achieving. I feel much more confident in continuing to hold. I very much like the new board dynamic and the willingness to get the things done quickly and decisively. "No point doing something if you're not going to make money". Simple, obvious but not necessarily applied in the past with Garat.

End result was pretty much as expected but not in how it was derived. There were provisions and exceptions that were totally unexpected but others I did expect didn't materialise which was a positive for me.

I think there is a lot of money going to come back into play, that is being provisioned, over the next 12 months to 24 months, which will allow much faster debt reduction than is on the table now. When you take the £100m run rate cost reductions, $70m NASB performance payment, Eu100m + from Germany, £40m or so from WeDriveU onerous provision, UK Bus asset sales, Fuel hedging cost reductions (could add around £30m to bottom line in 2028) etc. etc... increasing headroom in present value of future project recovery of c. £400m and so on.

Good news flow over the next 12 months also and returning to the Dec year end this year, so will have financial updates in June , Sept, Dec, March. So no long periods devoid of financial and detailed information.

If there are no big hiccups then next 24 months should be very positive imo.

Ditto Paddy. To be fair we were misled by Garat.

Year end surprises wil be write down at WeDriveU and likely UK. All non cash.

Restructuring costs also another (yet another) exceptional !

The only positive will be management comments on new financial year. The rest will be dire. Market no doubt already expecting the same.

We have been long suffering on the long side for many financials and this one is not going to be a lot better! Hopefully the underlying story is improving that supports a patient wait.

They are either very confident or reckless. With Canary bus last year, that’s a lot of cash when the stated priority is debt reduction. I can’t find anywhere that ALSA alone has invested 88m euros. If they have then that’s 150m euros spent. It wouldn’t fit an asset light model, so I assume the money spent is fully recovered through the contract and not an upfront investment over the 10 year contract?