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I’m going to follow that by predicting 26-27 a min. £200m bottom line profit before tax!

I’m going to follow that by predicting 26-27 a min. £200m bottom line profit before tax!

Expect another bottom line large loss. It’s not going to be pretty (estimating £200m to £300m loss). Largely non cash. write down in WeDriveU and UK also.

Followed by positive noises re: German Rail and ALSA.

To add my 10 Penney’s worth into the mix: I strongly believe they will sell WeDriveU. Focus on ALSA only. It’s diversified in itself and further diversifying each year.

They need the cash, pure and simple and only way to deleverage without high risk over a 10 year period is to sell the only non core ( non European) asset available.

Bring back management focus to Europe. Reduce debt quickly. Then a rerate can happen. Then maybe a further equity raise for European expansion once conditions improve.

Question is will we see that happen or will it go private and happen behind closed doors.

John - "as no compensation is coming our way, it's gonna be a long hard slog in Germany. "

The statement is that German Rail business is going to be on a good footing going forward... inc Rhine Westfalia, which is the lines reduced to year 2030. Assuming at worst that means neutral, will mean a reversal of the remaining onerous contract provision and a bottom line loss reduction (non cash). There may also be compensation that we dont know about that would have an additional cash impact.

"As for the UK remains to be seen if they receive anything for the old diesel buses,..I'm expecting a large impairment/writedown on that."

The company muted an impairment at the half year report for UK, so that is very likely. I would also expect an asset impairment for diesel bus fleet but we don't know at this stage what value the diesel bus fleet sits on the books at out of the £170m UK assets, which include coach, depots, cash, deferred income etc.... in a previous post, my best guess is diesel bus fleet to be worth £30m based on fleet average age and approx value of a bus at that age but could be higher based on condition and mileage etc... the regional authority holds some cards in that its goign to hard to sell that many buses elsewhere at full value but also they need fleet for day one operations so cant just go and buy 1,000 new buses off the shelf.

Thanks Rob, that was useful. Net Assets nearer £100m after deducting items of no value to WMA such as Tax Assets etc. then any discount on purchase. NASB discount was close to 40%. I Expect WMA to be less but might be reasonable To factor in a reasonable reduction. All guess work is Irrelevant of course and subject to notice but it will be interesting to see what the new management achieve.

Rob - have you seen uk bus broken out at £140m as I can’t recall seeing that. Total uk assets at half year was £170 but includes coach etc….

Sincerely hope you’re right Rob.

Reads as though WMA won’t franchise all zones to one operator and they intend to have several to ensure competition. Profit potential of franchising looks low for now.

Another quick read of the WMA franchise report: Mobico has 93% of the network and most depots. WMA allocated £45m for purchase of depots, including some new sites, so I’m going to make a guess and say £30m for Mobico?

The bus fleet is on average 11 years old with a 15-20 year life span. Value of an 11 year old service bus depending on condition and mileage is around £15k. For 1000 buses that’s £15m.

So my best guess is around the £50m mark for the lot. Excluding EVs which I value at £0 as they are leased.

Thats all I have to go on but would welcome any informed opinion on likely value that’s achievable?

They may end up doing a deal for all buses and it could be a negotiating tactic but at the moment they have agreed to buy the electric buses and consider options for the diesel fleet vs getting more new EVs.

How much are old diesel buses worth? Some of them 20 years old.

There’s a cheque to come but will it be substantial enough to make a difference.

Either way, as Paddy says, it will be great to get rid of UK bus. It’s a political football and liability.

Agreed but only confirming taking EVs which are leased. Need 1000 diesel buses to go too

Rob - the franchise doc mentions TUPE liabilities so assume staff will go to whoever wins the franchise contract. I would also expect short term leases liabilities (other than maybe admin office space) to also be taken on, especially where they include depots and engineering works etc...

How much of any purchase gets returned as cash after costs, loans and non transferred liabilities is the big questions. If NASB is anything to go by then that was only 50% of the strike price.

Lara - NASB write down partially balanced by £100m forex hedge gain. Also further impairment likely in WeDriveU and UK. So non cash effect not going to look nice at the bottom line agin this year. Seeds are set for 26-27

192 staff being laid off in WMATA contracts. That should reduce the current £750k pcm losses to close to being in balance or return to profit

Https://tenerifeweekly.com/2025/12/19/canary-islands-arabia-and-now-jaen-alsa-on-the-brink-of-signing-e17-8-million-rail-contract/

Expanding in canaries with rail and tram as well as hints of bidding for rail in Saudi

GLG holding down the rise

Silky - I dont believe Cosmens are taking over for now. They've blocked a 3rd party bid by holding close to the bid threshold and will bide their time.

As for the company dying, well it might possibly, but it still has the potential to excel rather than decline. The company has the funds to meet its debt falling due over the next couple of years and has assets and cash flow that can help deal with the bigger problem of the Hybrid cost.

There is $70m due from iSquared assuming NASB meets its financial targets. It has WeDriveU potentially worth £200m to £300m once the Washington Transit contract issue is resolved. That would allow a refinancing of the hybrid with a replacement smaller hybrid and reduce debt repayments considerably.

Given ALSA generates all the profit currently on its own at c. £180m you are left with around £800m of debt (exc. leases) and a smaller (say £250m Hybrid).

UK coach absorbed by ALSA and when German Rail is stable, I would assume that also will be absorbed by ALSA.

That would leave ALSA with manageable debt and a value worth several multiples of where we are now.

At that point or just prior to that point I would expect Cosmens to take ALSA private. Rebuild and expand and then list again in 5-10 years when debt is further reduced. Big multiples possible.

German Rail should be resolved at the very least on a neutral basis.

WeDriveU should also recover this year

Whats left of UK (bus) will return to profit and / or be sold off

The unknown factor is ALSA maintaining its profitability and contracts. If it does then I think the above will play out eventually.

How much of that is seen by PI's though is the big question for me. How far will it recover before being broken up and taken private.

John - the voucher scheme is for travel anywhere in the country” on middle-distance and suburban trains, and on national bus services.

For anyone new looking at Mobico, this is one of the best summaries of where we are at that Ive come across:

https://joshthompson.co.uk/investing/mobico-q3-2025-trading-update-profit-guidance-lower-end-cost-cuts-saudi-contract/