Member Info for wealthtrasfer

Debt management is close. Enough cash in place to cover next 2-3 years debt as it becomes due. Just need a bit more to enable refinance of smaller Hybrid (from sale of UK bus assets and/or WeDriveU) then business as usual or business as historical usual !!! And an SP to match. Lower interest rates also due will help.

ROCE improving a lot. A large part of that though is reduced capital due to sale of NASB. New contracts also capital light and driving further improvement.

Even without a euro of compensation (which is unlikely as there have been circumstances forced on train operators beyond their control) there is a £150m

Onerous contract release available going straight to the bottom line should the contract now return to its original intent and a small operating profit is achievable and consistent going forward.

FirePower - you and your alter ego, FlipFlop, said this was going to 0.00p only a few days ago! Phil must be doing a good job to gain 'your' confidence :)

Have you FlipFlopped again FP/QuickDippy?

Love to see your take on the numbers and how you see it playing out? Enlighten please

Rob - I was alluding to the bottom line as everything drops through. The paper loss of NASB and non cash improvement to German Rail (plus any much smaller cash amount) will all drop through to reported statutory profit. As have the goodwill write downs etc. all giving, as you stated, a false negative and in this case potentially a false positive result.

John - see half year report “Statutory Loss for the period including discontinued operations of £(254.7m), mainly due to £(238.0m) non-cash impairment on classification of NA School Bus as Held for Sale (as noted in prior announcements)”

There is a simplistic and very approx. but logical path to recovery if they take it.

- Negotiations allow a 'Write back' of £100m - £200m of German Onerous Contract provisions. This will wipe out the balance of paper losses on NASB sale (-£250m plus gain on Forex of £100m) net £-150m.

- German contract ticks along to end date making small margins

- Sell UK Bus assets (value unknown). Total guess at £50m - £100m

- Sell WeDriveU, once the WMATA contract is stable. Value based on purchase is 7 x EBITDA. Timing will be important and probably not for 12 months.

Use the proceeds to renegotiate a new Hybrid, before the 1st Feb 2027 interest due date, around £250m (with £125m equity credit) ie pay off £250m of the current Hybrid with proceeds above.

Current NASB cash pays off all maturing loans to 2028.

That leaves around £750m of debt (before leases) + £125m of New Hybrid debt.

Reduces debt payments by 40% to c. £50m (more if you take the Hybrid reset into account)

With no other exceptional items that should produce around £125m - £150m of profit at todays revenues and costs.

Reduce costs further as well would improve multiples. New CFO talking in the 10's of millions of annual savings being targeted.

Value c. 10 x and upwards

Timescale 12-24 months

2 days ago

"Say what you want wealthtrasfer , and others who are backing your nonsense, mobico days are numbered.

It now only needs a small hiccup from Alsa , and the company goes under like cineworld. Alsa is under enormous pressure propping up rest of the company, there's no way it can take the strain. It's just a matter of time, it gives , and the share price plungess.

That's why shorters , even at this price won't let go."

What changed? Keep up the medication!

Firepower yesterday morning, amongst many other nonsense rants, and I quote "Another new record low touched today.

If market drops , they will continue dropping .

Maybe 15p will be the low, possibly buying opportunities from that price."

Zero integrity, Zero knowledge, Zero Credibility

I take it your boss has said "we've closed the short now" . Time to switch direction?

You're not even good at it :)

Are you on drugs Firepower. If not I’d recommend calling for medical attention

No need to sell Alsa. It will be the only thing left in 12-24 months imo. Sell WeDriveU. Uk bus assets will be sold due to franchise. Coach absorbed by Alsa. German rail will also be taken in by Alsa once the contracts are sorted. All that’s left will be an enlarged ALSA. if they can raise £200m + from disposals then a rerate will come.

Positives

KPMG

German Rail profit - due to more drivers - possible reduction in onerous contract provisions should follow

UK bus asset disposal - likely and has interest (will it be a meaningful cash amount)

Negatives

Reduced ALSA growth

WeDriveU Washington contract issues continuing after stating that they were resolved or close to resolved in H2 update

Lower end of forecast

German rail discussions ongoing rather than “progressing well” as previously

Overall - neutral

They need out of US. Focus on Europe.

Taxing people of of cars will help UK (thanks Rachel)

Lower interest rates too.

April 2026/2027 is going to show whether we can recover or not

Firepower - why d8d you not answer my question - how much are you getting paid for your baseless negative posts?

We could revise the Outlook to Stable on:

- EBITDAR net leverage sustained below 4.0x combined with EBITDAR fixed-charge cover above 2.2x

- Evidence of some profitability improvements at WeDriveU, UK and Germany

We do not anticipate an upgrade given the Negative Outlook; but factors that would lead to an upgrade include:

- EBITDAR net leverage sustained below 3.2x combined with EBITDAR fixed-charge cover above 2.7x

- Sustained positive FCF and a strong business recovery, with structural improvement of profitability in WeDriveU, UK and German operations

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE

Liquidity was adequate at 30 June 2025 with GBP197.8 million of readily available cash. This position is expected to be further strengthened by GBP235 million of cash proceeds from the sale of North America School Bus in July 2025. The company also had GBP600 million of undrawn facilities, with less than GBP50 million maturing in 2028 and the remainder in 2029. This is sufficient against GBP70 million short-term maturities and Fitch-estimated negative FCF of about GBP120 million for 2025 and positive FCF of GBP17 million in 2026. The next significant maturity is a GBP233.5 million private placement due in 2027.

Https://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-downgrades-mobico-to-bb-outlook-negative-24-11-2025

Let’s hope so Lara. Just sceptical after last few years.

...NASB losses from sale and final valuation (amount achieved from sale - goodwill, overhead and asset value)

Josey - the impairment doesnt effect the adjusted operating profit just the statutory and is a paper loss only effecting Goodwill. If the Goodwill values are used up then it starts to effect the remaining asset value. In WeDrive U case it has £144m + £50m overhead. Total £194m goodwill to use before effecting underlying assets. Given that £100m was used in the first half and some ifnot all measures have been putin place to mitigate any further operational issues then it would seem unlikley that Goodwill would be fully used unless there is an interest rate rise expectation or GDP reduction etc... that would also impact it. These were the external influences that hammered the goodwill and produced a large paper loss at the bottom line for ALSA (and now NASB).

Josey - the likely hit will come from WeDriveU. Currently £144m carried at half year + £50m overhead (a reduction of £100m for the half year). If turnaround wasnt successful or complete then possible further reduction due. £50m to play with before effecting the bottom line (non cash only).

Revaluation due at year end (not in Q3). See accounts:

" In the case of WeDriveU, the value in use of the division exceeds it carrying amounts by £50.3m, down from

£157m at 31 December 2024. The adverse movement is driven by higher staff costs and increased asset base, which is partially offset by the

decrease in WACC. Impairment of goodwill for the WeDriveU CGU has now been identified as a key source of estimation uncertainty.

Whilst management’s strategic plan forecasts prepared in 2024 include profit improvement actions that aim to improve the future financial

performance of both businesses, these have not been included in the forecasts used for this exercise as they cannot currently be objectively

evidenced at this stage in the turnaround."