Member Info for Laralara1

Https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/west-midlands-bus-fares-rise-34194991

For the sake of change I note that in 2019 operating profit was 295M and revenue around £2.8B. Net debt was 1.2B.

In 2026 Revenue has increased, operating profit would be around 225M and net debt stood at 1.5B including Hybrid bond payment. Why SP is 24p ? There isn’t a much difference that suggests the SP.

While parties were negotiating the agreement in relation to German rail. A number of local newspaper paper stated €200M to Mobico. Later next day Mobico confirmed the agreement without referencing to €200m. These were the amount mobico would be benefited by 2030?

On 19th June shorts increased 0.10%. I believe this was to control the SP, following the RNS.

A decent time has been given to the shorts to cover. Next few weeks will be interesting.

Following would be the impact of legally binding contract.

1- estimated operating profit will be higher.

2- further deleverage ( local press reports €200m and cfo confirmed 2 baskets. If you remember)

3- further opportunities for expansion.

4- impact on gearing

5- Management actively and effectively working, keeping its promises.

Lower price can attract any time a bid. And a confirmation of turnaround will be provided by July end. I again repeat 6 months results will provide a clear path ahead but I believe SP will be in 60s atleast. DOYR

Interesting to see that GLG increased its short position in First group throughout 2026. Results proved them wrong.

After years of negotiations both sides reached to an agreement, why so much hype behind the signage of the binding contract? Do they disagree at this stage? From June rail employees wages increased which suggests there was something constructive behind the agreement. Maybe a condition that agreement will be Announced and disclosed on the 30th June and no details will be disclosed before such date. German railway has been sorted out just announcement is due. Turning point will be 6 months result. A huge uplift for Alsa , German railway and Wedrive u.

Alsa is rapidly increasing its foot print in Saudia. Alsa is also expanding in Spain. Problem is that ordinary investors are not selling their shares in 20s and shorts can hold this long. This scenario is suitable for Cosmen as well. Hold it’s a new type of Gold.

A deal has reached. Oil will flow smoothly at cheaper price.

Fair value

German US sorted

Short term 39-60 p

June 2027, Mid terms 65- 90p

June 2028 , 250-350p

A deal is very close and finalised within next 24 hours.

No buying at the moment and happy there is no RNS on bid. It’s better price increases gradually rather than rumours. Alsa is becoming a monster, expanding rapidly and only trading can provide a reasonable return rather than a low ball offer.

Https://www.expansion.com/empresas/transporte/2026/06/11/6a29cb21e5fdeaf8668b4588.html

Https://www.granadaesnoticia.com/provincia/la-junta-activa-las-primeras-concesiones-renovadas-de-autobus-en-andalucia

Mobico has reached an agreement with 5 PTA’s. The terms has agreed and it’s just a ceremonial work which is required to get into binding contract. There is also a due date which is before 30th june 2026. This is important to understand what has been agreed? RRE, would be extended by 2 tears( profit making) and RRX would be shortened by 3 years ( loss making). I hope this will result the recovery albeit gradually.

What shorts are looking for is that no immediate return of money . We have to wait at least until 6 months result of 2026. Somewhere late October or November. IMO

Https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/irizars-new-generation-hydrogen-coach-i6s-efficient-h2-fcev/

Alsa this summer going to operate hydrogen buses in Madrid.

This share is being short everyday, this is the reason price is staying here. Shorts believe it would go down, someone who is absorbing the sale believes there will be reward.

I was expecting confirmation of German deal last week and a nerves game would start from 15th June. Let’s see what’s come next.

I suspect Dave, whenever this happens with this share price drops 25 to 30%. Unfortunately previous price behaviour shows that. Let’s see may be this time it reverse the pattern.

Even after announcement of sorting German railway and better expectations of year ahead. If Mobico announced rising oil prices will impact 5 million the share price will drop because this not the case of fair value but to keep the SP under pressure.