Member Info for Laralara1

I am new in this board, can someone please explain why the Mcap is £209M when potential divestment sale is going to be £200 M? Company also have strong balance sheet then why price is at that low level?

I would highly appreciate if someone reply and address the above mentioned questions.

Thanks

Good company at a very good price. They will be much better next year this time and SP should be above£1 by 2027 March. DYOR.

Wealthtrasfer, I missed your thought on the NASB sale. I would highly appreciate if you could please shed some light on the statutory loss resulting from the sale and deferred tax.

Thanks in advance.

I sold this share at 45p and got a big hit. One third of my investment wiped away. Now I am ready to invest again in this share between 25p to 27p. This is still a solid company. Only issue here is German railway provision. Debt is high but manageable especially when inflation is easing. Why not German government will resolve the issue? And once it done SP will be above 60p again.

Half year result and completion of NASB business would give us much better picture. Time is coming to ride again. This time with double investment. DOYR

Sold at 70% loss. Although a big loss for person like me but feeling very relieved. Learnt the lesson, it was a wrong decision and wrong company to invest. Wish good luck for those who are yet holding.

I believe at this stage no one knows what they are going to disclose. I don’t think they found someone to sell the school business. I don’t think they have reached to a beneficial conclusion regarding German rail. I do believe there will be a margin recovery in US business and Uk business. A clear plan ahead of WM bus franchising. I hope to see 25-35M statutory profit. This year and 205-230 M Ebit guidance for 2025. Let’s hope for the best.

With 0.8 M volume buy/Sale both. How much wace got? Assuming no one else took part.

Interesting to see that they just announced FY results and nothing about first quarter which ended a month ago. So it may be there will be hint of encouraging news which will be finalise later. Let’s see how shorts play in next 3 business days.

Schmoky, That’s quite possible and may be need of the time to show broader picture.

Why we are blaming BoD? They announced everything thing before time . Critical impact may be the one that make German rail business profitable again. Why we think it will be run in loss? Why German would like to punish National Express which help them out in bad time by signing emergency contracts ? Why US business will not be sold out?

Keep calm and have faith. It just a matter of time. Otherwise invest somewhere else and enjoy .

4- Most of us bought these shares in the range of 150-170. While we were anticipating it will go above 2.50. Hence it goes down. But there are so many other stocks which perform worse than mobico. Why we don’t want to sell because we know it has potential to climb up to £3.

3- Decisions were wrong :

1- German contract

2- Dividends announced

3- High debt

Keep in mind Cosmen doubled their stakes. Revenue growth was persistent, margins were little down because of cost and wages growth.

2- Here comes August which stated US business is recovering rapidly. ALSA is fantastic, Uk business ok and German which comprises 7% of total revenue is down. And 5M loss anticipated at year end as well.

Negotiations are going ahead and will have critical impact. ( I will come on this critical impact later).

1- Story started early 2022, when mobico added non cash impairment of almost 280M in Alsa business. Which shows that business is in loss. Later in mid 2023 school bus drivers shortage emerged, covid grant reduced, inflation and wages growth dragged the SP. And in march 2024 we learnt that German railway provision and change in some practices leads us towards ground.

Furthermore, I am unable to understand why there website has not been updated since 8th April 🤭. They are too busy to settle their scores.

Wealtrasfer, in that case as it happened last year they revised their guidance and should have notified as soon as possible. They did this in the past. Secondly they can exit from the contract according to contract terms as they explained last year . I have no doubt that they have potential buyers for NASB sale. My only concern is NA profit which they announced last year August. Because on April replying the question James stamp said NA will be profitable in 2026-27. If I can recall correctly. Anyhow reduction in shorts is telling the story otherwise.

Garat’s departure will question the authority of the shareholders who brought him ahead. This is why Cosmen increased their stakes but at the same time make sure SP will stay there where it is now. I don’t believe debt is un manageable and neither I believe results were poor since 2022. Last CFO was part of the group IMO and a new game started since August this year. Shorts covering is telling that the drama is about to end.

It seems that there are some internal issues which are being addressed before the FY results announcement. Recent developments in the BOD may be indicating towards that issues. I suspect Garat would’ve be able to continue.

Does anyone know what will happen if they don’t announce the result before 30th April?

In early February 2025, ALSA secured a contract win for a major tender in Ibiza. Specifically, the contract involves the first lot, which covers routes connecting the city of Ibiza with key destinations like Platja d'en Bossa, the airport, and Sant Jordi. ALSA's subsidiary, Rutas del Cantábrico S.L., won this contract with a score of 78.10, surpassing Pitibüses.

Shorts reducing, strong diversified business. a clear strategy to reduce debt. margin gaps are recovering. Mcap is less than expected EBITDA. institutions are holding well. stay calm IMO.